Harrisonburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

054
FXUS61 KLWX 011440
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
940 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue through
  at least Tuesday with much needed rain chances mid to late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue
through at least Tuesday with much needed rain chances mid to late
week.

Broad 1032-1035 mb high pressure will remain anchored northeast of
the area today while continuing it`s influence across the Mid-
Atlantic region. The high pressure will shift off the southern
NJ/Delmarva coast Monday before meandering back overhead Tuesday. At
the surface, expect a continuation of seasonable temperatures and
dry conditions. High temperatures will push into the 60s for most
with overnight lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Sunshine will be filtered at times today and Monday as a weak
shortwave trough slides south of the region. Expect a thin broken to
overcast deck of high level cirrus this morning giving way to breaks
of filtered sunshine this afternoon. High level clouds return with
onshore flow Monday before dissipating Tuesday as high pressure
settles back over the region. Winds will remain light while turning
to the south today before shifting to the east and southeast Monday
into Tuesday. This will allow highs Tuesday to get back into the low
70s

Wednesday will be the day of transition as a deepening upper level
trough pivots east from the Upper Midwest and Great Plains region.
At the surface, will be an area of low pressure ejecting out of the
mid-Mississippi River Valley/Mid-South ejecting north and east
toward the central Appalachians and Carolina/VA coast Thursday into
Friday. This will be our first widespread rain across the region in
more than 2 weeks. Current 00z guidance suggest any widespread rain
holding off until late Wednesday night and carrying through most of
the day Thursday as low pressure passes over the region. A much
needed soaking rainfall is expect with the probabilities of 1" of
rain around 15-25 percent. Most guidance suggest rainfall amounts of
0.50-1" of rain over the Thursday through Friday timeframe. Of
course this is subject to change based upon the track of the low
pressure system late week. Surface high pressure builds overhead in
the wake of the low pressure system, with diminishing rain chances
expected heading into the upcoming weekend.  High temperatures will
be in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Blue Ridge with those
along and west in the upper 50s to 60s. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the 50s each night. Lows drop into the 40s east of the
Blue Ridge Thursday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant impacts are expected to aviators through at least
Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail along with dry conditions.
Expect broken to overcast high level cirrus this morning giving way
to scattered to broken high clouds this afternoon. Broken to
overcast high level cirrus returns tonight into Monday with light
onshore flow. Winds will turn to the south today before shifting to
the east and southeast Monday at less than 15 kts. Some patchy fog
is possible in the river valleys Monday and Tuesday morning given a
slight uptick in moisture from weakened onshore flow and ahead of
the incumbent trough mid to late week.

Wednesday will be the day of transition across the region. Expect
increasing mid and high level clouds, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours. VFR conditions will prevail until
Wednesday evening with any precipitation holding off until Wednesday
night or Thursday morning. Widespread sub-VFR conditions are
increasingly likely Thursday and Friday as low pressure works across
the region. Periods of rain are expected both days leading to
lowering cigs and vsbys. Winds will remain out of the south and
southeast at less than 15 kts through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through at least Tuesday. Winds will
remain light out of the east and southeast today through Monday as
high pressure pushes offshore. The high will settle back over the
region Tuesday before centering itself over the western Atlantic mid
to late week. This will lead to southerly winds and potential SCA
channeling mainly over the open waters late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Low pressure will pass west of the waters Thursday with a secondary
wave of low pressure passing to the east Friday. Winds will remain
near or just below SCA levels both days with widespread rain
expected. High pressure returns into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRR/EST
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST