Ashburn, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

762
FXUS61 KLWX 061847
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
247 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Quiet weather conditions are expected through the end of
     the week.

- 2) Increased rain potential late this weekend into early next
     week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGE 1...Quiet weather conditions are expected through the end of
the week.

High pressure will shift offshore tonight allowing for a
slightly warmer night. Winds turn southerly tomorrow allowing
temps to climb back into the 70s. Temperatures warm up to near
80 Thursday before the passage of another dry cold front. Temps
cool off slightly for the end of the week as weak high pressure
of Canadian origin builds in.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increased rain potential late this weekend into early next
week.

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a disturbance
over the southwestern Gulf of America (AL92). It is anticipated that
moisture associated with what is now AL92 will move into our region
later this weekend or early next week. There are a lot of
possibilities for where this system goes, and by extension, the
potential impacts that could bring to our area. There will be a
few key features ahead of this system to watch, but the most
important will be a cutoff low expected to develop over TX.
Cutoff lows are notoriously difficult to forecast, hence, the
level of uncertainty with the forecast. At this juncture,
several scenarios appear possible:

(1) Quick-moving low pressure moves onshore of the Gulf Coast, and
threads the needle between high pressure over the Southwest Atlantic
and the Upper Midwest, allowing it to move further north toward the
OH Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, delivering notably
higher rain potential and amounts locally.

(2) A very quick-moving low pressure system is forced to make an
eastward turn sooner across the Southeast prior to the western
extent of SW Atlantic ridging exiting the coast. This would keep a
majority of moisture and rain chances to our south, though some
moisture could still be drawn northward along a passing front.

(3) A slow-moving low pressure system is forced to make that
eastward turn sooner, blocked in this scenario by the second area of
high pressure in the Upper Midwest building in before it can trek
too far to the north. This would keep nearly all precipitation and
moisture associated with the low suppressed to the south.

(4) A very slow-moving area of low pressure would not only get
caught beneath ridging building over the Upper Midwest, but could
then remain cutoff from the large scale steering pattern. This would
leave low pressure meandering somewhere well to our south for a
time, before an uncertain exit beyond the current forecast period.

At the moment, deterministic and ensemble medium range guidance
exhibits very large spread, falling into (but not necessarily
favoring) any one of the four scenarios listed above.

It will be important to stay tuned to the forecast over the next few
days, and monitor hurricanes.gov for details on any potential
further development of AL92.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected through the end of the week. Winds
turn southerly Wednesday as high pressure shifts offshore. A dry
cold front Thu night will cause another wind shift Thu night
into Fri.

VFR conditions are expected on Friday and Saturday as high pressure
remains dominant over the region. Winds will be out of the N or
NW on Friday at around 5 to 10 knots, before switching out of
the S to SE on Saturday at the same speed.

More uncertainty going into Sunday, but sub-VFR conditions are
possible if we do manage to get any rain associated with the area of
low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds are expected to strengthen Wednesday out of the south and
could flirt with marginal SCA conditions Wednesday evening.

Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria on Friday and
Saturday as high pressure remains dominant over the region. However,
by Saturday evening, we could see a brief burst of southerly
channeling winds that come close to criteria. Confidence is low at
this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL