Orem, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

618
FXUS65 KSLC 041708
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1108 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms with the potential for gusty
  outflow/microburst winds exist for today and tomorrow, primarily
  across the northern 2/3rds of the area.

- Freezing temperatures across the Cache Valley (Wednesday morning
  only), western Uinta Basin, and Sanpete valley Wednesday and
  Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A cutoff low is situated off the central California
coast while a trough is diving south across the northern plains.
These two features will help to initiate showers with isolated
thunderstorms through Wednesday morning before a relatively quiet
period sets up for the remainder of the period. Ensemble members
are is good agreement regarding a broad ridge of high pressure
building into the western CONUS by the weekend and into early next
week.

Mid and upper level moisture with a relatively dry surface layer
exists across central and northern Utah/SW Wyoming. This moisture
will result in showers and isolated thunderstorms developing
today. Drier air is starting to move into southern Utah, which
will limit convective activity near the Arizona border.
Instability will be marginal today with the best CAPE and DCAPE
across northern Utah. Wind shear is weak across the area which
will keep showers and storms in a short-lived mode. Weak steering
flow will also inhibit showers from being able to move off of the
terrain and into adjacent valleys. But these showers could
produce some gusty microburst winds as they collapse.

Convection will be slightly more widespread on Tuesday as there
will be better proximity to dynamics associated with the
approaching trough to our northeast and closed low coming from the
west are able to provide more lift for storms. Profiles aren`t
quite as dry near the surface for tomorrow, so microburst winds
will be less pronounced. Showers will start to push to the east
and will clear the area by Wednesday morning as a cold front
sweeps through the area.

This front will bring back the threat for freezing temperatures
across the Cache Valley Wednesday morning and the western Uinta
Basin and Sanpete Valley both Wednesday and Thursday morning.
Wednesday morning has ~30-50% chance of freezing temperatures in
these locations. The main source of uncertainty is likely
associated with residual clouds and moisture behind the front. If
conditions are able to clear out sufficiently before sunrise on
Wednesday then freezing temperatures will have a better chance of
occurrence. Thursday morning won`t have the threat of cloud
coverage, but temperatures will already be warming aloft by then
so the threat of freezing temperatures will be confined to the
Sanpete Valley and western Uinta basin.

With troughing to our east and ridging building to our west we
will be in a mostly stable northwest flow through the weekend.
Grazing shortwaves will remain possible within this flow regime,
particularly across northern Utah/SW Wyoming so diurnal showers
can`t be totally ruled out. A more prominent ridge will start to
build across the west by early next week which will lead to dry
stable conditions with warmer than normal temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Thunderstorms are developing across the terrain
to the south of the terminal as of 17Z and thus far have had trouble
shifting into the adjacent valleys. Given light steering flow and
limited instability, these thunderstorms will have trouble shifting
off the terrain through the afternoon. That said, periods of gusty
winds from outflows and showers may occur (around 30-40% chance
between 18-02Z). Will monitor trends and update the TAF when
confidence in timing is higher.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop from a line roughly north of CDC to BCE to HVE
to a line roughly south of ENV to OGD to EVW through 03Z.  Gusty and
erratic microburst winds up to 50 mph and brief periods of MVFR will
occur near this convection.  Additional showers and thunderstorms
will impact portions of Utah between OGD and Nephi between 03-10Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mahan
AVIATION...Kruse

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity