McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

450
FXUS64 KFWD 022325
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
525 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers will develop along and east of the I-35
  Tuesday.

- A cold front Tuesday will bring cooler temperatures by Wednesday
  with highs in the 50s. Near freezing lows are expected Thursday
  morning.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected this weekend with highs in
  the low 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Only some minor tweaks were made to the current forecast based on
the latest short term guidance. Cloud cover will continue to
increase through the late evening and overnight with a surge of
low clouds expected after midnight. As a result, we`ve raised
overnight low temperatures a few degrees across the eastern half
of the CWA. Scattered showers are expected to develop ahead of a
cold front on Tuesday, but this activity really looks to be
confined to our far eastern counties. We`ll have some 20% PoPs
east of I-35 with 40-50% across our far eastern counties, but most
of this activity is expected to quickly move into East Texas
during the afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Surface high pressure under convergence aloft will make for a
pleasant day across the region. Skies will remain clear, and above
normal temperatures are forecast with highs in the mid to upper
60s. A few locations across the Big Country may briefly reach the
low 70s before sunset. For portions of Grayson and Cooke counties
where there is still a snow/ice pack in place, highs will struggle
to make it out of the 50s. This evening and into tonight, a
moisture tongue will be advected northward across Central Texas
and eastern North Texas with dew points increasing into the 50s.
This will moderate overnight lows, with areas south of a line from
Comanche to Fort Worth to Paris generally remaining in the 50s.
Drier air north of this line (the Big Country and Red River
Valley) will allow for temps to drop into the 40s tonight.

Tomorrow, a shortwave trough will dig south across the Great
Plains as the longwave trough over the eastern CONUS amplifies. At
the surface, a cold front will move south in tandem with this
upper-level feature. Flow aloft will strengthen in response to
the temperature gradient across the frontal zone resulting in a
jet streak extending from North Texas into the Deep South. Speed
divergence aloft in conjunction with PVA from the approaching
vort max to the north will bring widespread synoptic forcing for
ascent to the area. As such, expect widespread cloud cover across
the entire region, and scattered rain showers to develop along and
east of the I-35 corridor. The greatest rain chances will be in
East Texas (50-70% chance), with more isolated coverage expected
closer to the I-35 corridor (20-50% chance). Weak lapse rates will
all but negate the potential for thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts
will also be on the lower end, with rainfall totals likely
remaining under 0.25".

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Tuesday night, the aforementioned cold front will have already
moved through North and Central Texas bringing north winds and
lows in the 30s. Wednesday will be near or slightly below average
with highs largely remaining in the low and mid 50s.

Ridging over the western CONUS will shift east into the Great
Plains by Thursday as surface high pressure again moves into the
region. Clear skies and west winds at 5-10 mph will keep humidity
down and allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s.

By the weekend, the longwave pattern will begin to shift favoring
troughing over the western CONUS and ridging out east. A shortwave
will amplify as it comes ashore from the Western Pacific and
traverses the Great Basin. Ahead of this upper-level feature, the
return of southerly winds at the surface will allow Gulf moisture
to return to our area. This will set the stage for increased
chances for rain (potentially some thunderstorms) by the end of
this weekend into early next week. While the details on the exact
timing and evolution of this next disturbance precludes a more
detailed analysis on storm potential next week, severe weather is
currently not expected. Regardless of how this system evolves.
Persistent southerly flow at the surface and ridging generally
over or just east of the Great Plains will support above normal
temperatures this weekend into next week with highs in the low 70s
and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR prevails this evening under a canopy of high clouds, but low
level moisture will return quickly tonight and widespread MVFR
cigs are expected after midnight ahead of a cold front. We`ll
prevail MVFR from around 8Z tonight through mid/late morning on
Tuesday. As the cold front moves through the region, winds will
gradually become more westerly then north behind the front around
midday. VFR will prevail behind the front Tuesday afternoon and
night.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  63  37  55 /  10  20   0   0
Waco                55  66  38  59 /  10  20   0   0
Paris               49  61  34  53 /  30  40   0   0
Denton              46  63  32  55 /  10  10   0  10
McKinney            51  63  35  54 /  20  20   0  10
Dallas              53  64  38  57 /  20  20   0   0
Terrell             53  64  35  55 /  20  40   0   0
Corsicana           56  66  38  58 /  20  40   0   0
Temple              54  67  37  60 /  10  20   0   0
Mineral Wells       45  65  33  58 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Dunn