El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

123
FXUS64 KEPZ 201716
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1016 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 957 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

 - Dry conditions this week ahead with no rain chances through
   Tuesday.

 - Near-record to record warmth through much of early portion of
   the forecast, with highs 15-20 degrees above normal.

 - Increasing clouds midweek with slight chance of showers
   Gila/Black Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 957 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Zonal flow continues over the region for the next few days before
a transition to a more SSW. This zonal flow will keep temperatures
very warm for late Dec with more records likely to fall over the
coming days. Highs over the lowlands will be in the 70s. NBM temps
looked a little low in some areas and did warm a couple degrees
with records being threatened. Overnight lows will continue to
fall off nicely into the 30s and 40s.

The upper flow starts to change going into Tue with the SSW
developing and tapping some subtropical moisture. Most of this
moisture will be mid and high based but out west models agree
there could be enough lower level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain showers, mainly over the Gila region going into Tue
night and Wed. Didn`t go anything above 30 PoPs in the Gila and
10-20 near the AZ border. Cloud cover from this moisture plume
will help to lower high temps and raise overnight lows a little
bit, so less of a chance for records going into Wed.

A quick change to a little more of a WSW flow for Thu/Fri which
will allow temps to warm back up more. Could see some record highs
on Christmas Day which for ELP is 75.

Going into next weekend, there is some timing differences among
the models and ensembles as to how quick a fairly strong upper low
moves onshore and brings in some precip chances to the region. The
GFS is slower moving things eastward with an even slower solution
on the 12Z run than 06Z, but it`s ensemble mean continues to
indicate a quicker solution similar to the EC. The NBM seems to be
closer to the EC solution and brings in some increasing clouds and
precip chances going into Sat. Left things with the NBM PoPs here
with such a wide range of solutions, but temps will start to at
least start a downward trend by this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 957 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

P6SM SKC-SCT250 through the period. West to southwest winds will
be a bit gusty this afternoon up to 25KTS at southern terminals,
but gusts will fall off after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 957 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Warm and dry conditions continue through Tuesday with near record
highs and min RH`s falling into the teens daily. Winds will be
strongest this afternoon but the remainder of the period looks to
have winds under 15 mph. An increase in clouds and low level
moisture moves in for Wednesday which will raise RH`s into the 20s
and 30s along with a slight chance for precipitation out west. The
low level moisture will stick around through the end of next week
which will keep RH`s up above 20%. Vent rates will be poor to
fair.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  47  76  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            48  73  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               42  73  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               39  73  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               39  54  40  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    42  73  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              44  69  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   38  75  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                35  74  33  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       45  75  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                36  76  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             41  78  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               46  69  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   43  77  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             41  74  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           46  75  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            35  74  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    38  77  36  77 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 43  76  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                39  72  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  42  70  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                35  67  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 29  61  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  32  68  30  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                44  72  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                38  72  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             21  70  21  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   38  70  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    26  73  25  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               23  72  23  74 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  41  71  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   37  76  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  36  76  34  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           40  75  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               44  74  42  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz