Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

198
FXUS64 KFWD 060538
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1238 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A few days of near or below normal temperatures can be expected
   through the middle of the week.

 - Thunderstorm chances return by the end of the week and
   continue into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The weak disturbance aloft which provided mid and high clouds
across Central Texas and light rain over Southeast Texas is now
headed east to the Deep South, leaving ridging aloft in its wake.
At the surface, a ridge axis will migrate slowly east from the
Plains to the Midwest, shifting winds from light northeast to
light east, and maintaining the dry airmass currently in place.
The result will be a continuation of seasonably cool and dry
weather across North and Central Texas to start the work week. Low
temperatures in the 40s can be expected this morning and again
tonight/Tuesday morning, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A shortwave trough now entering the West Coast will propagate
fairly rapidly east over the next few days, reaching North Texas
on Tuesday. A moisture-starved environment will ensure that little
in the way of rainfall will be received as the system passes
overhead, though a few spots will likely pick up trace amounts to
a few hundredths of an inch. The resulting mid and high clouds
will otherwise keep seasonable temperatures in place with highs
topping in the lower 70s. Decreasing clouds and weak ridging aloft
in the wake of the departing shortwave will generate nice weather
on Wednesday, with highs in the middle 70s. Meanwhile, an upper
low swinging from the Northern Plains into the Midwest will force
a cold front south into the Southern Plains on Thursday, but the
front will stall before reaching the Red River. Increasing return
flow and warm air advection ahead of the front will keep the
warming trend going into Thursday, with highs climbing to around
80 Thursday afternoon.

It still looks like a period of unsettled weather will begin on
Friday or Saturday and continue through the early part of next
week, driven mainly by a deep upper low currently seen on
satellite spiraling over the northeast Pacific. The system will
move east and reach the West Coast on Friday, then dig southeast
along the California Coast to Baja California by Sunday. Ripples
in the subsequent southwest flow aloft should help ignite
convection along the dryline each afternoon and evening, some of
which will most likely impact parts of North and Central Texas.
For Friday, it looks like North and Central Texas will lie
between dryline convection to the northwest and seabreeze
convection to the southeast, keeping the area predominantly dry,
but will include some low-end POPs across the southeast and
northwest.

Storm chances will increase Saturday evening as the first lead
shortwave moves northeast from Southwest Texas into the Southern
Plains, bringing at least some of the dryline storms over the Big
Country east into western portions of North and Central Texas.
This pattern will repeat Sunday and Monday, with the question
being just how strong the cap will be and far east each round of
convection will be able to reach. Will keep at least chance POPs
in place each each day from Saturday to next Monday, with the best
chances along and west of I-35 and the most likely time being in
the evening hours. There will also be at least a low end severe
weather threat based on the pattern and time of year, and we will
have more information regarding these and other details later this
week. The upper low itself will eventually bring one last round of
storms as it lifts northeast through the Southern Plains around
Tuesday of next week. However it pans out, it looks like a typical
spring pattern will be in place as we approach mid April.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Light northeast winds will veer to the east 15-17Z Monday, then to
the southeast by 06Z Monday night, with speeds likely remaining
below 10 kt. High pressure aloft and at the surface will otherwise
provide VFR and quiet weather conditions area-wide.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  51  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
Waco                71  47  71  54 /   0   0   0  10
Paris               70  45  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              71  45  73  49 /   0   0   0  10
McKinney            71  47  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
Dallas              73  51  73  54 /   0   0   0  10
Terrell             71  47  73  53 /   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           74  49  75  55 /   0   0   0  10
Temple              72  47  74  53 /   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       72  46  73  50 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30