Knoxville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

247
FXUS64 KMRX 011750
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1250 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Chance of Light rain will increase late tonight across southeast
Tennessee and the Plateau. Chances spread east on Sunday, but most
areas remain dry.

- Dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next week.

- Increasing chances of rain and gusty mountain winds mid to late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Current regional radar imagery highlights an area of isolated to
scattered showers approaching from the west. These showers are
associated with a shortwave trough that will move across the Ohio &
Tennessee valleys over the next 24 hours. The low level jet will
begin to ramp up ahead of the approaching system overnight into
Sunday. This will induce broad isentropic lift over middle TN and
across the Plateau counties. There remains some uncertainty with how
far east the precipitation will push on Sunday as residual dry air
will limit rain due to evaporation. The highest confidence of any
rainfall is west of interstate 75, but it wouldn`t surprise me if
some sprinkles or brief showers make it east of the interstate.
Gusty winds will be possible overnight into Sunday as a weak
mountain wave event unfolds across the mountains and foothills. Wind
speeds and gusts will remain below advisory criteria.

The first week of November will be a bit of a roller coaster. Monday
and Tuesday feature a return to the mild and dry pattern we`ve
observed over the past few weeks. The broad surface high pressure
over the eastern CONUS and west Atlantic will build back into the
region. Aloft, we`ll see upper level ridging return and hold steady
through Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s
and lows in the 50s. The signs of a pattern change are present
upstream. An atmospheric river event is unfolding over the SW US and
the associated upper trough will slowly work it`s way east into the
Plains early week. Ensemble guidance features some spread with
respect to the intensity, track, and timing of the mid-week system
and frontal passage. However, there is strong consensus with this
upper trough bringing the Tennessee valley meaningful rain at some
point this week. Our upper level trough will cross the Rockies
Sunday night into Monday. Our associated surface low forms over
Colorado Sunday night and treks northeast to the Upper Mississippi
valley by Tuesday night. From there guidance spread increases
significantly, but the front will move very slowly from middle TN to
eastern TN Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. This front will bring
much needed rain to the area given how dry it has been this Fall.
Ensemble probabilities are support a pretty strong signal for at
least a quarter inch (0.25") or more of rain across the entire CWA.
The best signal for higher amounts is over our western CWA at this
time. Our system will also bring another potential mountain wave
downslope wind event for the mountains and foothills.

For Friday into next weekend, our temperatures will cool down to
more seasonable values with highs in the upper 60s and lows back in
the 40s. Next weekend looks dry, but things could change given the
uncertainty in timing with the mid week system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

VFR conditions and light winds of less than 10kts are forecast at
all sites through the period. There is low chance that CHA could
see MVFR ceilings overnight but not great enough to mention in
TAFS. Downsloping winds off the east TN mountains should keep
ceilings elevated at TYS and TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             54  73  57  76 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  53  75  50  79 /  20  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  73  50  77 /  20  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  71  46  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99