Hendersonville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

551
FXUS64 KOHX 041717
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1217 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Warm and dry today with an afternoon breeze.

- High rain and storm chances Tuesday & Wednesday. Some localized
  flooding is possible. The severe weather threat is low.

- Cooler weather will resume Wednesday and stay through the end
  of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

We`re in a broad split-flow aloft today, and relatively zonal, as
we transition in the upper-levels through tomorrow. This
coincides with a low-level ridge building off to our southeast
which is promoting a strengthening southerly breeze and warmer
temperatures this afternoon.

By tomorrow morning a cold front will move southeast from the
Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. Continued southerly to
southwesterly low-level flow is expected across Middle Tennessee
which will raise tropospheric moisture values and humidity at the
surface. PWs in the 1.4" to 1.6" are expected to move in from the
west. Meanwhile, a weak surface low is forecast to propagate east
along the stalling front throughout the day. This should bring
scattered convection closer to Middle Tennessee, near the moisture
axis. This is good news considering we need any rain we can
possibly get. We don`t expect any severe weather or flooding with
this initial round of rain/storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

It looks like the best overall chances for rain and storms will be
tomorrow night into Wednesday as the front gradually moves closer
to Middle Tennessee with subsequent shortwave disturbances aloft
expected. These will encourage additional convective development
along the moisture/instability axis. There`s still some
uncertainty about storm evolution on Wednesday as showers and
storms will be possible along the stalled front, but it`s unclear
how much recovery can occur along/south of the front to foster
strong to severe storms. Best overall chances for a severe storm
will be south of I-40 on Wednesday. We`ll also watching for any
training storms that may produce locally heavy rainfall and
flooding. This would be an isolated occurrence given that ongoing
drought is a big inhibitor to any organized flooding concerns.
However, any high rainfall rates, especially in urban or poor-
drainage areas, could result in minor flooding.

This front will finally be nudged out of the region on Thursday
with a large dip in the Polar jet swinging through. We`ll have a
period of cooler, stable weather to finish off the week, though
low rain chances are back in the forecast early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Gusty winds today with VFR conditions otherwise. Could see some
gusts up to 25 knots out of the SW through 0z. Winds will lighten
to around 5-10 knots overnight, before becoming gusty once again
around 15z Tuesday. Gusts look to be similar, around 25 knots.
Ceilings will lower but not reach MVFR this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      58  77  60  72 /   0  60  90  90
Clarksville    58  74  54  65 /  10  80  90  80
Crossville     52  72  57  69 /   0  40  90 100
Columbia       56  75  61  72 /   0  50  80  90
Cookeville     54  73  59  69 /   0  40  90  90
Jamestown      54  74  56  69 /   0  50  90 100
Lawrenceburg   55  75  62  73 /   0  40  80  90
Murfreesboro   56  76  61  72 /   0  50  90  90
Waverly        59  73  55  67 /  10  70 100  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Holley