Bartlett, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

807
FXUS64 KMEG 041131
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
631 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Monday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the low
  80s. Gusty winds are expected by the afternoon, with gusts
  upwards of 35 to 45 mph.

- An active pattern kicks off on Tuesday. There is a low chance
  (5-15%) of severe weather both Tuesday night and Wednesday
  afternoon.

- Dry and cool conditions return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

With the tightening pressure gradient expected this afternoon,
went ahead and opted to issue a Wind Advisory from 10 AM until
7 PM for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. While HREF guidance is not as optimistic, NBM guidance
is painting a 70 to 90% chance of criteria being reached both
with sustained winds over 25 mph and gusts over 40 mph in this
region. As always, please make sure to secure any loose items
early in the morning as wind speeds will continue to increase
through the day.

CMA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

After a nice, cool weekend, we`ll kick off the work week with a
warming trend. A tightening pressure gradient in between a strong
Bermuda High and an approaching cold front will give way to gusty
southwest winds at the surface on Monday. Expect sustained winds
in the 20-25 MPH range for most areas with gusts up to 40 MPH.
Per the latest HREF, there is about a 40% chance of meeting Wind
Advisory criteria up in the normal problem area of northeast AR
and the MO Bootheel on Monday afternoon. Warm, moist Gulf Coast
air being advected in will send temperatures just a few degrees
above normal Monday with highs right around 80 degrees, but PoPs
remain less than 10%.

Moving into Tuesday, a more active pattern kicks off as a deep
trough emerges from the Four Corners. As it amplifies on its trek
eastward, a broad moisture axis will start overrunning the Mid-
South on Tuesday morning. This marks the return of rain chances,
though the stronger showers and thunderstorms will not move
through until Tuesday evening. The first of two distinct "rounds"
of potentially severe weather arrive along a shortwave ahead of
the main front after sunset Tuesday. Storm mode looks generally
messy and multicellular with bowing segments as the primary
hazard overnight into Wednesday. Forecast surface analyses depict
this front stalling out along the I-40 corridor some time
Wednesday morning, leading to the second round of severe storms
this week.

As the cold front makes its final descent through the region on
Wednesday afternoon, peak diurnal heating will aid in spicing up
the instability for some stronger storms across north
Mississippi. Digging into an early look at parameter space, the
LREF currently depicts about a 50-70% chance of favorable overlap
of MUCAPE (> 500 J/kg) and bulk shear (> 30 kt). Note the use of
MUCAPE given the diurnal peak instability coinciding with FROPA
timing. With W-E storm motions and slow southward progress of the
surface boundary, training storms and PWATs above the 97th
percentile (1.5-1.7") will most likely lead to some locally
higher QPF axes within the 1-2 inch storm total forecast over
these two days. Flash flooding will be a concern, especially
Wednesday afternoon across north Mississippi. All in all, prepare
for a busy two-day stretch Tuesday and Wednesday while we wait
for this cold front to finally pass.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions once again return on
Thursday and Friday. However, this break will be short-lived.
Another cold front (albeit weak) is forecast to swing through on
Saturday, promoting a 15-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Sunday. Little to no moisture return is available
preceding the weekend`s front, so any convection is expected to
be shallow and weak.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 30 hours. A tightened
pressure gradient will result in southwest wind gusts up to
25 kts at MEM/MKL/TUP and up to 35 kts at JBR by late morning.
Gusts will mostly drop out by 00Z, however, occasional gusts up
to 20 kts will likely remain at JBR/MEM through the overnight
period. Marginal LLWS is expected overnight at JBR/MKL as a LLJ
dips down. Light showers will begin impacting the Mid-South
around 10Z, spreading east to west, tomorrow, though confidence
was only high enough for PROB30s at JBR/MEM. Southwest winds will
gust up to 25 kts once again shortly after sunrise tomorrow.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns this period. Monday will see the
lowest RH (near 35%), but humidity and rain chances will increase
each day this week as a cold front approaches.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AEH