Sturgis, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

776
FXUS63 KUNR 161055
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
355 AM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds expected across northwestern SD this
  afternoon with gusts of up to 45 mph possible.

- Strong winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday, gusts of 60+
  mph are possible.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions possible
  Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 354 AM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

Most recent upper air analysis depicts near zonal flow over the
Northern Plains with weak shortwave crossing the Dakotas. Water
vapor and nighttime microphysics shows a band of high clouds
associated with this weak system crossing the CWA. A few weak
returns are showing up on the most recent KUDX imagery, but with
RHs at the sfc ranging from 30-50%, it`s doubtful anything is
actually reaching the ground. Another mild and dry day is on tap
with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Weak 3-hr pressure rises of 1-3
mb will support breezy winds across northwestern SD this
afternoon. A few spots may gust to 45 mph but not enough coverage
in these gusts to warrant issuance of a wind advisory at this
time.

Potent shortwave crosses the northern Rockies during the day
Wednesday and ejects into the Northern Plains Wednesday night. At
the sfc, double barrel low pressure system develops over MT/ND
with a pair of cold fronts pushing through the CWA Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Strong southwest winds will develop ahead of this
system on Wednesday with gusts of up to 60 mph possible in
northeastern WY and southwestern SD. Have issued a High Wind Watch
for southern Campbell, Weston, and western Fall River Counties
for Wednesday. Near critical to critical fire wx conditions are
also possible Wednesday, will elaborate further in the Fire Wx
discussion.

Initial cold front roars through the region late Wednesday
afternoon with strong 3-hr pressure rises of 5-7 mb. This will
bring the first round of strong westerly winds across northwestern
SD and portions of northeastern WY. The next cold front pushes
through the region later Wednesday night into early Thursday with
similarly strong pressure rises. The strong winds will cover most
of western SD, including the Black Hills. BUFKIT soundings have
been consistent in showing high wind warning level gusts mixing
down to the sfc. Have issued a High Wind Watch for northwestern SD
effective Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
Additional wind headlines may be needed for overnight Wednesday
into Thursday morning for the western SD plains. Some light precip
is possible with these fronts, first as rain showers and then
transitioning to snow as colder air pushes into the region, precip
should taper off by Thursday morning. Snow amounts don`t look to
be too much, generally less than an inch.

Active, near zonal flow will persist across the Northern Plains
through the weekend and bring occasional chances for light precip.
After a chilly day on Thursday, temps will rebound for Friday
before the next front moves through the region Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 354 AM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds across
the western South Dakota plains will become breezy in the
afternoon, with gusts to 35 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 354 AM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

Near critical to critical fire wx conditions possible on
Wednesday, especially across portions of northeastern WY and
southwestern into south central SD. Strong southwesterly winds
expected to develop across northeastern WY on Wednesday morning
with the strong winds expanding to western SD Wednesday afternoon.
Gusts of up to 60 mph are possible in some areas of northeastern
WY and southwestern SD. While minimum RHs will range from 30-50%,
the strong winds and unseasonably warm temperatures in the upper
50s to mid 60s, combined with cured fuels will result in
widespread near critical to critical fire wx conditions.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for SDZ001-002-012-013-025-072-073-078.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for SDZ041.
WY...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for WYZ060.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for WYZ059.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
     for WYZ055-058.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Wong
FIRE WEATHER...Wong