State College, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

129
FXUS61 KCTP 060614
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
214 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased wind gusts by about 5-10 kts from previous values
  based on winds in the upper half of the well mixed layer for
  Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Colder tonight after a taste of summer like weather.

2) Light snow likely across the northern tier Monday/Monday
night.

3) Much colder first half of the week but warming up again at
week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cold front now east of our area as of early
evening.

A gust wind will follow across the Central Ridge and Valley
Region of the state, while deepening cold air, upslope flow and
the approach of a mid and upper level trough from the Ohio
Valley brings persistent layered clouds and a trend toward
increasing chcs for light rain/snow showers across the NW Mtns.
The mixed precip will be changing to mainly snow showers after
dark. Some light rain/snow showers could drift over the Laurel
Highlands too through early tonight as the main mid/upper level
trough axis moves through.

As the temps in the clouds and at the sfc get colder, the precip
will become frozen and have little time/altitude above freezing
to melt on it`s way to the ground. There could also be a little
graupel in a shower or two if they can tap a little CAPE. These
SHSN will last into the first half of the night. Just a dusting
of an accumulation is expected, mainly along and N of Route 6.

         ---------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Light snow likely across the northern tier
Monday/Monday night.

A Clipper-like system dives down from Central Canada and across
the Great Lakes on Monday. It has meager moisture to drop on
Central PA, but numerous SHSN expected in the northern tier.
More sparse showers (mixed) will make it south of I-80. Sfc
temps are expected to get into the 40-45F range in the nrn tier
in the aftn on Mon, so the p-type may be a mix, too. The NAM
does paint some meager CAPE in the NW, too. So, there could be a
briefly heavier spot of precip/snow here and there. At this
point, it doesn`t look dynamic enough to make serious snow
squalls. However, the forcing looks strongest later in the day
and evening Monday as a short wave trough passes overhead. A
couple of models show the SHSN dipping into the Laurels in the
evening. The SHSN will linger all night and perhaps into Tuesday
AM until the (broad) axis of the upper trough moves past the
CWA. Overall, the accums could be an inch or so in the nrn tier
and perhaps a dusting in the Laurels and Alleghenies. Wouldn`t
be surprised to see a dusting on the ridge tops around Happy
Vally by Tuesday AM.

         ---------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Much colder the first half of the week but
warming up again at week`s end.

Tuesday MA mins will be cold enough for frost over all of the
area, but wind of 10-15 G 20-25KT will keep that from happening.
The cold pool will be deepest on Tuesday, limiting max temps to
the freezing mark near the NY border and 45-50F in the srn
cities. These numbers will be about 10-12F below normals.

Wednesday morning will be the coldest this week due to the
center of the sfc high being right overhead. Morning mins will
be well below freezing everywhere. Even the Lower Susq will get
into the L-M20s. The start of the growing season (date of the
normal last spring freeze) is not until the 11th there. So, we
probably won`t be issuing frost/freeze products for that
morning. But, collaboration with our neighboring WFOs will weigh
heavily on that decision.

It then warms up close to normals maxes on Wed as the sfc high
slides to our E and S and the wind turns to come out of the S
and we should be sunny. Thursday looks much warmer, jumping
another 10-15F over Wed`s numbers. PoPs stay pretty low as we
warm up as the sfc high noses back into the Deep South. That
will help to keep moisture from the Gulf from getting to us.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early March-like weather pattern expected over the next 36-48
hours with reinforcing surges of unseasonably cold air. This
will promote an uptick in rain and snow shower activity through
Tuesday before high pressure arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The result will be intermittent rounds of rain and
snow showers with occasional drops in visibility to MVFR/IFR.
BKN-OVC ceilings will be fairly stable in the low VFR to solid
MVFR range. Timing of visibility drops are difficult at this
point so opted to use prevailing VFR to MVFR -shra/-shsn for
now across the western and central terminals (outside of
KMDT/KLNS) with highest odds for more frequent IFR visibility
restrictions in shsn at KBFD. Wind is also a little tricky to
time with 20-30kt gusts from 290-320 likely fading some today
and shifting more to a 270 degree component before increasing
later tonight into Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR.

Fri...Chance of rain showers especially in the western
airspace.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
AVIATION...Steinbugl