State College, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

874
FXUS61 KCTP 130132
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
932 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Tweaked near term grids, but no major changes.
* Considering dropping FFA for the northern couple counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Numerous showers with some embedded thunder are moving thru
the area and may bring locally over 2 inches of rain and some
areas of flash flooding into early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Numerous showers and some embedded thunder are
moving thru the area and may bring locally over 2 inches of
rain and some areas of flash flooding into early Sunday.

Radar playing out the forecast very nicely. Much of the heavy
rain has confined itself to PBZ`s area, as expected. Have not
seen any 1"+ amounts on any buckets across our CWA, and FFG is
higher than that. It is good that we have the flood watch out,
but we may be able to start trimming it off as this push of rain
goes past. HRRR and RAP had been different on the timing of
rain exit from the watch area, but are now both languishing rain
over the CWA much of the night - just light rain, though. Thus
far, we have had no hydro issues, and the threat seems to be
coming to a close. But some training of 0.5-0.75" rainfall is
seen over the NW at this time. That will add onto the 0.25-0.5"
we had at first late this aftn. But, it still looks fairly tame
or even of no consequence. Will allow the watch to continue as
is for the time being. But, we may be able to drop it earlier
than 08Z (curr exp time).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Peak instability (late this afternoon) with MU CAPE values
between 1000-1500 J/KG just to the West of KJST and KDUJ
terminals help to fire off numerous discrete/low-topped TSRA and
small line segments that trained northeast and expanded into
the current large area of light to moderate rain with embedded
TSRA and areas of heavy rain.

The western airfields will have IFR to low-end MVFR and slowly
deteriorating conditions overnight to min values between 07Z-11Z
Sunday. LIFR to IFR conditions are expected at most, if not all,
airfields in the 04Z-11Z Sunday period, followed by a bump up
to MVFR (or MVFR/VFR - at the Central and Eastern PA TAF
locations).

The best overlap of instability and high PWATs for the overnight
hours will be at JST and AOO. This is where the strongest
storms with the heaviest rainfall, gusty winds, and visibility
impacts are most likely.

Given the cloudier conditions that occurred further east during
the daylight hours this Saturday (limiting instability growth),
showers and thunderstorms are expected to be weaker. Some heavy
downpours remain possible for the first half of tonight though
given the high PWATs, so included visibility restrictions in
Tempo or PROB30 groups elsewhere too.

Some clearing around sunrise at BFD, JST, and AOO may lead to
some fog development early tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Sun...Early MVFR/IFR and moderate rainshowers across the state.
Additional SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon.

Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, with some potential for
afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

Tue-Thur...Mainly VFR with a showers possible over NW PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ004-005-010-011-017-
024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/Lambrech