Falls, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

886
FXUS61 KBGM 021058
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
558 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes made this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold start today, then dry and slightly milder conditions
before lake effect snow returns midweek over north central NY.

2) A clipper system Friday into Saturday may bring accumulating
snow and another brief shot of arctic cold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold start to this morning as mostly clear skies allowed
temperatures to fall near zero. Brief ridge builds in today
allowing temperatures to recover with highs in the low to mid
20s. High pressure keeps conditions dry over the region along
with partly sunny skies. As the ridge pushes east on Tuesday,
westerly flow follows along lake effect snow showers over north
central NY. A short wave pushes into the region by Wednesday
morning along with a cold front. This will shift winds to the
Northwest and allow showers to advance into central NY. Lake
effect is expected to continue into Thursday night with light
accumulations, mainly over north central NY.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Flow shifts southwest Friday ahead of an incoming clipper system,
cutting off any lingering lake effect. This system is expected
to track over our region Friday into Saturday bringing the
potential to see accumulating snowfall. As this disturbance
moves into our region, it also brings another shot of arctic
cold. Temperatures at 850 mb are expected to range -24C to -26C.
This will keep snow ratios rather high and has the potential to
increase accumulations, but it is still not certain at this
time how much. Good news is this burst of cold air is only
expected to last a couple of days at most as models show a ridge
attempting to build in early next week. Despite this the
weekend will again experience temperatures near zero with
potential for more cold weather headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions continue at ELM, RME and SYR at this time (11z).

A band of MVFR/IFR clouds has developed as expected over
Central NY at this time (11z) and this also has snow flurries
associated with it...especially at ITH and BGM. RME is now
forecast to just see a short period of MVFR clouds and perhaps
vsbys, mainly through the mid morning hours, confidence remains
on the low side on if this additional cloud band will develop
here. SYR should settle into MVFR/MVFR fuel alternate CIGs
around 12z this morning, through early this evening.

ITH and BGM will have clouds filling back in with 008-020ft
CIGs through about 15-18z today at these two sites, before
becoming VFR in the afternoon and evening. ELM is expected to
remain VFR for the entire taf period based on the latest data.
AVP should become VFR by mid to late morning and remain VFR for
the rest of the taf period.

Surface winds will be NW at 5-15 kts today, becoming light and
variable under 5 kts after sunset into tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Stratus clouds redevelop and expand, with widespread
MVFR CIGs likely areawide.

Tuesday Night Into Wednesday Morning: Lingering MVFR stratus
clouds around the region. A few snow showers possible across
Central NY.

Wednesday Afternoon: Period of VFR possible at ELM, BGM and
AVP...better chance for BKN MVFR CIGs to remain at ITH, SYR and
RME in the cold NW flow.

Wednesday Night and Thursday..Mainly VFR; low chance (25% or
less) for snow showers and restrictions at times due to
occasional lake effect snow showers at SYR and RME.

Friday...Restrictions likely with a system bringing periods of
snow, transitioning to snow showers and blowing snow Friday
night. Squalls possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ040-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ057-
     062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...MJM