Muskogee, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

215
FXUS64 KTSA 191639
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

 - Anomalously warm temperatures continue through the remainder of the
   week. Near record high temperatures are forecast each day
   through Sunday.

 - Limited fire weather threat each afternoon through Saturday.
   Elevated conditions behind a cold front Sunday.

 - No significant rain chances over the next seven days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A strong upper level high is in control across the entire southern
Plains. Skies will remain clear or mostly clear today with light
southwest flow. Considering the very warm airmass now in place, high
temperatures will quickly rise to well above normal. Most areas will
be around to 10 F warmer than yesterday, with mid to upper 80s for
eastern Oklahoma and low to mid 80s in northwest Arkansas.
Fayetteville Arkansas is forecasted to tie their record high, with
our other climates sites falling short of a new record.

Mild and dry conditions will persist overnight, with mostly lighter
winds. Low temperatures will mainly fall to the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

An anomalously strong and record breaking upper level high will
remain anchored across the southwest-central US for the next few
days. The strong high pressure will result in additional warming the
next several days. By many metrics, the upper level pattern
resembles something that might be expected in June or July, which
will push temperatures towards records. High temperatures will reach
the upper 80s to low 90s on Friday and low to mid 90s by Saturday.
Dew points will remain relatively low given light surface flow,
mainly in the 40s and 50s. The light winds will help with fire
weather issues, given an otherwise favorable environment.

Models continue to show a strong but dry cold front on Sunday. Model
guidance is honing in the frontal timing, passing through northeast
OK in the early afternoon, then the remainder of the forecast area
by early evening. This timing would still allow most areas to reach
90F Sunday except for northwest of I-44. Behind the cold front,
winds will become strong for a few hours, with wind gusts of 30-45
mph. A Wind Advisory may eventually be needed. Considering the
dry air behind the front, fire weather concerns will become
elevated for a few hours as well.

Monday will be cooler, but still above normal, with highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s under increased cloud cover. As the upper level
ridge flexes back into the region, temperatures are expected to
quickly warm into day 7, possibly approaching 90 F again for some
areas. Rain chances remain very low through day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions will continue through the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   85  54  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   85  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  49  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   82  55  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   82  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   84  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   83  54  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
F10   87  54  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   83  54  86  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07