Toledo, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

928
FXUS61 KCLE 161937
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
337 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Significant wildfire smoke is expected to continue through
Friday, and this will keep high temperatures several degrees
cooler than the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wildfire smoke will produce poor air quality and reduce
visibilities through Friday.

2) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday
afternoon through Saturday and again Tuesday into Wednesday.
The storms Saturday afternoon and evening could be severe.

3) Very warm temperatures will persist through Saturday before
cooler weather arrives Sunday through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Today has been an incredibly rare day across northern Ohio and
Northwest PA as dense wildfire smoke continues to funnel across
the region, originating from hundreds of active fires burning in
NW Ontario Province. Mid afternoon visibilities are averaging
0.5 to 1 mile, with the worst visibilities near Lake Erie and
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA. The mid/upper ridge
currently elongated from the corn belt through the Tennessee
Valley will remain largely in place through Friday to the west
of mid/upper longwave troughing over eastern Canada and New
England. The associated NW flow aloft will keep the smoke plume
funneling into our area through Friday. The latest HRRR smoke
plume forecast shows similar conditions to today for much of
Friday, so expect another day of poor visibilities and air
quality. Additionally, the smoke kept temperatures a solid 5
degrees cooler than forecasted this afternoon, and expect a
similar outcome Friday, so lowered high temperatures to
generally be mid/upper 80s.

A warm front will lift across the region Friday evening through
Friday night in response to a strong mid/upper shortwave
progressing into the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes.
This will turn the low-level flow southerly and start to scour
out the smoke, so expect slow improvement Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A major pattern change will take place this weekend as the
mid/upper longwave trough over eastern Canada and New England
deepens into the Great Lakes and retrogrades the large mid/upper
ridge back into the Plains and Intermountain West. This trough
will be deepened in part by a strong shortwave dropping from the
Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes Friday night through the
southern and eastern Great Lakes by Saturday night. This system
will have plenty of dynamics when combined with the heat and
humidity to support severe weather.

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley Friday
will retreat northeastward across the region Friday evening and
Friday night in response to the approaching shortwave trough.
This will usher the 70 plus degree dew points back into the
area. Strong warm/moist/theta e advection on the nose of a 30
knot west-southwest low-level jet will generate scattered
convection late Friday afternoon through Friday night from west
to east along and ahead of the warm front, where isentropic
ascent will be maximized. Generally do not expect severe weather
with this round due to limited shear, but enough instability
will be in place where a few stronger storms with gusty winds
and small hail cannot be ruled out.

Any lingering showers should quickly move out Saturday morning
as the region becomes entrenched in the warm sector. This will
set up a hot and humid day and allow for at least moderate
instability ahead of the shortwave and associated strong cold
front. Depending on any lingering smoke or convective debris
cloudiness, surface based CAPE could push 3000 J/Kg in the
afternoon, and this combined with deep layer shear increasing to
30 to 35 knots will support organized severe convection. Timing
wise, it looks like convective temps will be reached by 19Z to
allow for scattered cells to begin developing, and then a broken
line or QLCS could drop across Lake Erie and much of northern
Ohio and NW PA during the evening ahead of the cold front. This
timing and evolution is supported by the latest runs of the HREF
and RRFS. The wind profile looks to be unidirectional, and with
shear vectors oriented NW to SE (normal to the line of
convection), there could be surges and bows to enhance the wind
risk. Low-level SRH is unimpressive, but cannot rule out a brief
spin up QLCS tornado given the potential for surges/bows in the
line. The latest SWODY3 Slight Risk continues to look good,
with the primary hazard being damaging winds.

Rapid drying is expected behind the front Saturday night, with
dry conditions Sunday and Monday as Canadian high pressure
builds across the Great Lakes. However, the mid/upper longwave
trough over the eastern CONUS/Great Lakes will continue to
deepen through mid week as a couple of shortwaves drop through
it, and expect another cold frontal passage Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will bring the next potential for showers and
thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Very warm temperatures will continue Friday with highs in the
mid/upper 80s, although these will be muted by the smoke and
lower dew points. Saturday will be the most unpleasant as the
humidity surges back in and temperatures warm into the upper 80s
to low 90s. This will support heat indices in the upper 90s to
around 100 again. The deepening trough Sunday through mid next
week will bring much cooler, more pleasant weather, with highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s, which will be
below normal for mid July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Poor aviation conditions continue across the region with reduced
visibilites due to wildfire smoke moving southeast from Canada.
Widespread IFR visibility, with patchy LIFR, is anticipated to
continue through tonight and into early Friday morning. Expect
near-surface smoke to slowly improve from southwest to northeast
Friday into Saturday. Still some uncertainty when the smoke
will dissipate but expect MVFR visibilities to linger across
central and eastern TAF sites. Have the highest confidence in
VFR returning on Friday at western terminals.

Northerly to northwesterly winds 5-10 knots this afternoon and
evening will become light and variable overnight tonight. Winds
will begin to favor a southerly component by the end of the TAF
window.

Outlook...Non-VFR visibility through Friday due to Canadian
wildfire smoke. Non-VFR likely Friday night through Saturday
night in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally northerly winds 5-10 knots over Lake Erie will become
light and variable overnight tonight. Have extended the Dense
Smoke Advisory for all Lake Erie zones through 4 AM Friday. The
advisory may need to be further extended in time with future
shifts as Canadian wildfire smoke lingers.

A warm front will lift east across the lake Friday night into
Saturday leading to southwesterly winds increasing to 10-20
knots and wave heights building to 1-3 feet across the open
waters. A cold front will cross south on Saturday which will
turn elevated winds northwesterly and allow for wave heights in
nearshore zones to build to 2-4 feet. High pressure builds
overhead Sunday into Monday allowing for northerly winds to
decrease to 10 knots or less while gradually turning
southeasterly. Another cold front will push across Lake Erie on
Tuesday likely leading to a window of elevated wind speeds and
wave heights Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149-
     162>169.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13