Oakes, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

980
FXUS63 KBIS 201730
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1130 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder and breezy today with highs from around zero in the
  Turtle Mountains to near freezing in the southwest corner of
  the state.

- Near to above average temperatures expected through the
  upcoming week, perhaps well above average in southwest and
  south central North Dakota Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

- A much drier pattern is forecast through Christmas Eve, with
  only a low chance for light mixed precipitation on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Breezy northwest winds continue to diminish at the time of this
mid day update though are still gusting as high as 35-40 MPH
over portions of central North Dakota, mainly in the James
River Valley. Patchy blowing and drifting snow in north central
North Dakota has generally dissipated by this time. Upstream in
northeastern Montana, mid level clouds and weak radar returns
associated with a warm front are approaching the forecast area,
and are anticipated to move into the northeast by the mid
afternoon. With relatively high clouds bases above 10kft, and
with model soundings keeping a fairly dry column across the
northern portions of the state this afternoon and evening, not
much more than occasional flurries are expected at this time.
Overall, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Generally quiet weather can be found across western and central
North Dakota at the time of this late morning update. With a
50-60kt 850mb jet wrapped around the mid level low exiting to
the east through Manitoba, northwest winds with gusts up to
around 35-40 MPH linger over portions of north central North
Dakota. With this, patchy blowing and drifting snow has been
observed over this same area. As the inciting continues to move
off the to east, and as surface high pressure moves in to
northwest through the morning, these winds and the patchy
blowing snow are expected to diminish. Otherwise, low
temperatures this morning have been from around 5 below zero
across the north, up to the mid teens and lower 20s above south.
Wind chills have broadly risen above 30 below at this time. No
major adjustments to the forecast were performed at this time,
as it remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 556 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

The gusty west-northwest winds have been slower to relax than
expected, with scattered observations of sustained speeds around
30 to 35 mph and gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph to the north and
east of Highway 52. In fact, areas from around Bottineau to
Rugby to Rolla have seen a slight uptick in winds over the past
couple hours, which does not match observational and RAP
analysis trends of the surface isobaric pressure gradient and
pressure rises. There is an area of stratus passing over the
Turtle Mountains and surrounding areas that appears to be
producing flurries based on the assessment that visibility is
much poorer now than compared to earlier in the night when
similar winds were only producing minor visibility restrictions
due to blowing snow. Satellite and observational trends would
indicate that conditions should be improving throughout the
morning.

The elevated winds have also caused wind chills to drop
slightly colder than our original expectations. Observations
during the five o`clock hour have generally been around 25 to 30
below across the north and into the James River Valley, with a
handful of 30 to 35 below readings scattered about the area.
Given the current limited coverage of sub-minus 30 wind chills,
and the expectations that temperatures will begin rising and
winds will begin decreasing soon, we will refrain from issuing a
Cold Weather Advisory. But anyone who needs to spend time
outdoors this morning should dress accordingly and cover all
exposed skin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

A closed mid level low is spinning across Manitoba early this
morning, with its downstream surface low having just crossed
into the southwest corner of Ontario. Colder air continues to
settle over North Dakota, and a tight surface pressure gradient
underneath a 50 kt 850 mb jet has maintained windy conditions
across much of the state. Observations of +30 mph sustained and
gusts over 45 mph have consistently become less common, so the
remaining portion of the Wind Advisory has been allowed to
expire. A gradual decreasing trend in the strength of the winds
is expected throughout the day, but it will still remain breezy
in the eastern half of the state until after sunset. Areas from
the Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley could also
experience patchy blowing snow through this afternoon, although
visibility restrictions are not as likely today. High
temperatures this afternoon are forecast to range from around
zero in the Turtle Mountains area to near freezing in the
southwest corner of the state, which will be in close
proximately to a stationary front whose interface was originally
the cold front that moved through last evening. A band of weak
low level warm air advection is forecast to cross the northern
two thirds of the state from west to east late this afternoon
through this evening. Several CAMs have hinted at this producing
some light snow, but the strength of the forcing and moisture
availability look rather unimpressive. Will maintain a dry
forecast for now, and should anything develop from this it would
almost certainly be just flurries.

A warming trend is forecast for Sunday through Monday as
anticyclonic northwest flow aloft turns zonal ahead of an
approaching shortwave from the Pacific Northwest to Northern
Rockies. Forecast high temperatures jump to the teens northeast
to 30s southwest on Sunday, then the 20s northeast to 40s
southwest on Monday. The strongest forcing attendant to the
approaching shortwave is forecast to traverse the region during
the day Monday, for which the NBM places a 15 to 30 percent
chance of light precipitation across the northern half of the
state. There is uncertainty in maximum temperatures aloft, which
translates to precipitation type uncertainty. The spread of
reasonable outcomes ranges from all snow to all liquid (rain or
freezing rain depending on surface temperatures). We maintained
a forecast for more of a broad mix with equal probabilities of
different types through central North Dakota while sticking with
all snow farther north (temperatures both aloft and at the
surface are clearly expected to be cooler north compared to
south). Ensemble guidance shows little to no chance of exceeding
0.1" QPF with this system, which would translate to little to
no impacts from rain or snow, but low to perhaps medium impacts
if it were to fall as freezing rain.

A slight cool down is in the forecast for Tuesday behind the
departing shortwave. The forecast remains dry for both Tuesday
and Christmas Eve when ensembles favor an upper level ridge
building over the central CONUS. Ensemble tools such as the EFI
and NAEFS climatology support an anomalously warm day on
Christmas Eve across southwest and south central North Dakota,
and the NBM is already showing 50th percentile highs in the mid
30s to lower 50s in this part of the state, along with 75th
percentile highs in the lower 40s to upper 50s. Ensemble spread
in the synoptic pattern begins to emerge on Christmas Day, with
2 clusters (around 60 percent membership) favoring southwest
flow aloft, and each of the other 2 clusters (around 20 percent
membership each) favoring a transition to either zonal or
northwest flow, respectively. Regardless, there are still high
chances for above average temperatures across southern North
Dakota on Christmas Day, with similar support from the
aforementioned ensemble tools. Northern parts of the state will
remain cooler over the holidays, but are still favored to be
near to slightly above average. Ensemble cluster mean
height/vorticity and probabilistic precipitation would also
indicate a more active pattern beginning Christmas Day, but
there is not enough predictability in any one feature (let alone
the pattern itself) for NBM precipitation probabilities to rise
above 20 percent at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility is expected at all terminals
throughout the 18Z TAF period. Late this afternoon through early
tonight, mid level clouds will cross from west to east,
accompanied by occasional flurries. Breezy northwest winds will
linger across central North Dakota through early this
afternoon, with speeds from 20 t0 25 knots gusting up up to 30
knots. Winds will then diminish, becoming light and variable
through the late afternoon and evening as high pressure moves in
from the west, before reorganizing out of the south southwest
overnight through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Hollan
DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Adam