Mandan, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

225
FXUS63 KBIS 190238
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
938 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. The threat for
  severe weather is low.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures this weekend, with
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- A gradual warming trend through next week, along with
  continued chances for precipitation each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The showers and isolated thunderstorms are mainly in a
north/south line in the Highway 83 corridor. These will continue
moving east through the late evening. To the west there are weak
isolated rain showers. The rest of the forecast is on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The upper level shortwave has entered western North Dakota, thus
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed.
No severe storms are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Currently, northwest flow aloft with a steady northwest low/mid
level flow across the region. Diurnal instability along with
subtle embedded waves in flow aloft contributing to widespread
CU along with some weak to modest radar returns. Little shear
present limiting so far any stronger updrafts.

A more defined embedded S/WV trough slides across the Dakotas
later today through tonight, and will bring a better coverage of
showers and thunderstorms from west to east across western and
central North Dakota. One can already see this activity to our
west over north central and northeastern Montana. Some increase
in bulk shear values, so a few stronger storms will be possible
with this wave.

Continued unsettled northwest flow for Friday, with enough CAPE
and shear for diurnally driven chances for showers or a few
thunderstorms north central and east.

S/WV mid level ridge building over the Northern High Plains
region within a broader split flow regime Saturday, results in
increasing south-southeasterly flow and WAA, leading to warmer
temperatures to start the weekend. Both a northern and southern
stream S/WV trough then propagate east towards the Dakotas
later in the weekend, with the southern stream feature more
progressive and moving across South Dakota Sunday, keeping
precip chances along the ND/SD border area and south. A sfc
trough associated with the northern stream wave remains along
the MT/ND border, keeping precip chances far west Sunday, with
dry conditions expected elsewhere. The northern stream S/WV is
then forecast to close off over the Northern Plains Sun night
through Monday, and will bring widespread chances for showers
and storms to much of the state this period.

Thereafter, a slow warming trend is favored through the work
week as ensemble means depict zonal flow and/or ridging
developing across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern
Plains. In the wake of this flow pattern, long range ensembles
in fair agreement with a troughing pattern materializing to our
west, which would tend to maintain near normal temperatures and
bring better chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR through the period with scattered showers and thunderstorms
this evening and through the night. Winds could be erratic and
gusty this these storms. There could be some MVFR CIGs Friday
morning, before clearing out and becoming breezy. Winds will be
from the west/northwest 15 to 30kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Smith