New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

769
FXUS62 KMHX 020745
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
245 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Coastal flood advisories have been cancelled.

High surf advisory extended through this evening to account for
the lingering long period swell.

Increased chances for a wintry mix Wednesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Fresh snowpack means overnight lows will be quite cold and
threaten record lows the next few nights.

2) Travel will remain treacherous through at least mid week due
to the lingering snow cover.

3) A threat for a wintry mix is increasing as temperatures drop
below freeezing Wednesday night. Freezing rain and snow will be
the primary precip type concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Extremely cold air will stick around behind the
winter storm with the potential to set additional new record
low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows are currently
forecast to be in the single digits to low teens if winds become
calm, and 15-25F along the immediate coast and OBX Monday
morning. The areas that don`t see single digit MinTs will be due
to wind, which will make the wind chill values between 0 and 5
above. Because of this, Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect
for the mainland, with Cold Weather Advisory in effect for
the OBX zones. High temps edge above freezing today, but likely
not above the mid 30s for most areas. Lows tonight should be
quite cold due to even less wind, and good rad cooling atop
snowpack allow for lows to easily drop into the mid to perhaps
low 10s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant impacts from the departing winter
storm continue, with travel being extremely treacherous esp
during the nighttime and morning hours when temps are at or
below freezing. Travel impacts will continue for many days, as
melting snow Monday onwards will refreeze each night bringing a
risk of black ice and slippery conditions on a lot of roads,
bridges, and walkways.

Potential Life Threatening Situations: The combination of these
hazards will make travel dangerous and could lead to life
threatening situations if motorists become stranded due to the
extreme cold temperatures coming overnight and in the early
morning hours.

A coastal flood advisory is in effect from Ocracoke north
through Hatteras to the NOBX for a threat for 1-2 ft inundation
above ground level as ocean overwash remains possible with
strong wave action still battering the coast. We have had
reports of overwash freezing, further adding to hazardous
travel.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A dampening northern stream shortwave and
attendant cold front will approach the area Tuesday night and
push across the area Wednesday bringing a cold rain across the
region. Temps may drop to near freezing Tuesday evening but will
warm into the mid 30s for most as clouds increase with model
soundings showing a warm nose centered around 925 mb, so p-type
is expected to remain rain with this initial shortwave and cont
into Wed.

Wed night is when wintry weather may fall, as sfc front will
have pushed through, allowing for temps to drop to freezing or
below, aided by the snow cover. This secondary wave may cont to
prodcue precip, and would be a mix of light snow and light
freezing rain or freezing drizzle. The snow cover would only aid
the sfc temps reaching below freezing. At this time, have wx
type becoming mostly snow for areas north of Hwy 264, and rain
becoming mostly freezing rain for areas to the south of Hwy 264.
Any snow or freezing rain amounts should be light, with snow
totals less than a half inch and freezing rain less than a tenth
of an inch. Pops remain in the chc range, and the probability
of wintry precip is still nowhere near certain. Cont to monitor
the fcst.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds in place
through Monday night, and expect such conditions to continue
into Tuesday.

Outlook: Conditions likely remaining VFR into Tuesday night,
although there is a low end potential (10% chance) of some
shallow fog to form Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as
southwesterly winds bring some relatively moist air into
the region. Expansive snowpack over ENC should help cool down
this moist air mass on top of it, with large uncertainty on if
it cools enough to reach saturation. As a worst case scenario
could see a combination of sea fog with the SW flow over cool
waters coming onshore in addition to radiational fog away from
the coast late Tuesday. Another weak weather system will push
across the area Wednesday into early Thursday that may produce
sub- VFR conditions in predominantly light rain with some
potential for some light snow as well.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong low pressure system will continue to produce dangerous
marine conditions through today with lingering large long period
swell. SCA winds will drop first for the sounds and Alligator
river through this morning, but linger into the evening for the
cont 6+ foot seas in the coastal waters.

Outlook: On Tue night into Wed, swrly flow inc ahead of a cold
front. Due to the now very cold nearshore and sound waters, the
incoming airmass will be quite stable and a stout marine
inversion prevents SCA conditions for all but the Gulf Stream
waters. Wed night, strong cold front passes through, with all
waters and sounds back to SCA conditions due to CAA north to
northwest winds. Late in the week into the weekend, an even
stronger reinforcing arctic front will brings solid SCA to gale
force winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for 02/02 (Monday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       19   1980  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  20   1977  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     12   1971  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Kinston        13   1980  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   16   1980  (NCA ASOS)

Record Low temps for 02/03 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       15   1980  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  15   1917  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     9    1917  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Kinston        12   1980  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   18   1980  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ196-204.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ203-205.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ204-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...TL