New Rochelle, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

788
FXUS61 KOKX 221118
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
618 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overhead today slides offshore by tonight. A frontal
system impacts the area late tonight through Tuesday. High pressure
returns on Wednesday. A warm front moves into the region
Christmas Day into Friday, stalling nearby. A series of frontal
systems may move across the area late in the week into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message:

* Dry weather prevails today as winds lighten.

Strong high pressure shifts over the area today allowing for
generally clear skies with dry conditions. The weakening
pressure gradient will allow NW winds to diminish into the
afternoon and shifts more WSW. Highs today will be in the
middle to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Light snowfall late tonight into Tuesday as a warm front
  lifts through the region. The snow changes to rain along the
  coast Tuesday morning, and potentially for most inland areas
  by early afternoon.

* Total accumulations of up to an inch for the NYC metro, Long
  Island, and coastal CT, and 1 to 2 inches for interior areas.

* Travel impacts to the Tuesday AM commute likely, with icy
  conditions possible on colder, untreated surfaces.

The strong high pressure shifts offshore tonight providing for
a generally light WSW flow. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave
traverses east, sending a warm front toward the region into late
tonight into Tuesday. The primary low remains well to the north
before attempting to redevelop offshore along the front later
Tuesday as the system exits.

Clouds increase this evening as the warm front approaches from
the southwest. The forcing from the approaching warm front as
well as some assistance with some upper-level jet provided
divergence will allow for widespread light snowfall to
eventually overtake much of the area late tonight into early
Tuesday morning. The profile looks well below freezing aloft,
with the precip-type being entirely determined by the boundary
layer temperatures at the time of the precipitation occurring.
Expected to be cold enough at the onset late tonight into
Tuesday morning to support a widespread light snow, though this
snow may have to overcome drier air in the boundary layer, which
may delay onset for a bit.

Increasing SW flow at the surface will begin warming the BL and
force a transition to rain/snow by mid morning along the coast,
before gradually becoming light rain by late morning. This
transition should work its way inland through southern CT, but
may struggle to fully changeover into the Lower Hudson Valley
before precipitation shuts off here. Additional precip may
develop into early afternoon, especially eastern and coastal
areas, as low pressure attempts to develop and deepen offshore
as the system pulls away, but any light rain that remains tapers
by the early evening.

QPF overall will be light, largely near or under a quarter inch,
which will limit any potential snowfall. Forecast amounts have
not changed significantly from the previous forecast, with up to
an inch along the coast, and 1 to 2 inches moving inland north
of interstates 80 and 95, with highest amounts in the elevated
areas of the interior LoHud Valley, interior SW Connecticut,
and NE NJ. Certainly plausible many coastal locales see little
if any accumulation, or just a light coating. Will depend how
much the dry air limits initial precip with the WAA band. Given
the timing, travel impacts for Tuesday`s morning commute appear
likely, particularly on any colder, untreated surfaces where
snow occurs. Temperatures climb above freezing by afternoon as
precip begins to taper, even inland.

High pressure then builds in gradually Tuesday night, moving
overhead on Wednesday. This will provide for generally dry
conditions, though the tight pressure gradient between the
incoming high and departing low Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning will allow for brisk conditions under NW flow. Brisk NW
flow gradually diminishes late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Chance of light rain for Christmas Day into the night.

* Chances for mainly light rain Friday through next weekend.

* Temperatures around 5 to 8 degrees above normal Thursday night
  through Friday night, otherwise temperatures near normal.

As the high over the area on Wednesday night moves offshore, a
SW flow develops, aiding warm air advection. This will allow a
warm front to slowly approach from the southwest. With the
associated low well to the west the front will be slow to move
into the region, and may not move into the area until Friday,
with temperatures rising to well above seasonal normals.

Overrunning light precipitation will be possible with the warm front
beginning early Christmas Day and lasting into Christmas night.
While light rain is possible for Christmas Day the
precipitation may start as light snow Wednesday night. Sounding
are still indicating the low potential for a brief period of
light freezing rain across portions of northeastern New Jersey
and into the Lower Hudson Valley. And the NBM also has a low
chance of freezing rain, and maybe some sleet as well. It is
however entirely possible that much of this precipitation holds
off until Christmas night into Friday morning as the warm front
moves over the area.

With the warm front north of the region Friday temperatures will be
as much as 8 degrees above seasonal normals, however, no records are
likely, with records mainly in the lower to mid 60s.
High pressure to the north will push the front back south Friday
night, with the front then possibly stalling in the vicinity. A
series of frontal waves then move along the boundary with chances
of mainly light rain into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong high pressure over the Ohio Valley builds east into the
Mid Atlantic states THIS morning. The high moves offshore in
the afternoon as a frontal system impacts the area Monday night
through Tuesday.

Mainly VFR conditions, but lowering to MVFR/IFR 09Z-18Z Tue with
light snow developing gradually turning to rain or rain/snow mix
by 18Z.

ost sites should remain gust free into the day today, but a few
occasional gusts around 16-18 kt can`t be ruled out, while
sustained winds will be W around 10 kt. Winds eventually back SW
toward evening. SW winds continue to diminish to around 5-7 kt
overnight. Winds SSW 5-10 kt tomorrow.

 .NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

May have occasional gusts this afternoon.

Timing of winds shifts may vary by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: IFR likely. Occasional LIFR/VLIFR. Snow mixing with
and changing over to rain along the coast by late morning/early
afternoon. KSWF and KHPN will see this changeover in the
afternoon, but most of the precipitation will fall as snow. Some
light precipitation may linger into the evening.

Minor accumulations of 1 to 2 inches expected at KSWF and KHPN,
with less than inch elsewhere.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.

Thursday through Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a
chance of rain.

&&

.MARINE...

Conditions have improve this morning as high pressure builds
in, with winds lightening and seas falling. Sub SCA conditions
expected on all waters by early afternoon, if not late morning.

SCA conditions may return to ocean waters Tuesday afternoon with
seas building to near 5 ft as a frontal system moves through. NW
winds increase behind the system, and 25 kt gusts likely develop
on at least the ocean by late Tuesday night.

Small craft advisory wind gusts will be possible across all the
forecast waters during Wednesday and into early Wednesday
evening with a northwest flow behind departing low pressure.
High pressure will be building in from the west during Wednesday
and gusts fall below advisory levels across the forecast waters
Wednesday evening. Thereafter, winds and seas likely remain
below advisory levels with a weak pressure gradient force across
the area. A warm front moves into the region Christmas Day into
Friday, stalling nearby. With a frontal wave moving through the
region, along the stalled boundary, wind gusts will be
marginally near SCA levels on the ocean waters Friday afternoon
into Friday night, however, ocean seas build to SCA levels
Friday afternoon and remain elevated into Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW