McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

333
FXUS63 KGLD 020850
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
150 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy freezing fog possible across Norton and Graham counties
  this morning.

- Increased fire danger is possible today as a cold front brings
  in winds from the northwest gusting 25-40 mph.

- Highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast through the next week,
  except Wednesday which will be in the 40s and 50s.

- Chance for light wintry precipitation Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 146 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Early this morning, an 850 mb ridge will slowly be moving east, out
of the area with a fairly weak trough following. This is leading to
some mid and upper level clouds moving over the CWA from the west.
These clouds are helping keep temperatures from dropping too cold.
Unfortunately, these clouds will not spread across the bulk of the
area until around 12Z. This may allow patchy to locally dense
freezing fog to form in the eastern CWA. REFS guidance is showing
about a 50% chance of 1 mile visibility in freezing fog along and
east of U.S. 283 between 13-16Z, although may start as early as 9Z.
This could lead to some slick elevated surfaces this morning. Any
lingering fog is expected to lift by 17Z.

Today, around 15Z, a cold front will enter the northwestern CWA as
our next trough moves out of the northern Rockies. Between 15-19Z,
the front will push across the area. Between some early day-time
heating and pre-frontal compressional warming, temperatures are
expected to rise into the 50s and near 60, with the warmest
temperatures in the southeastern CWA. With the cold front, we are
expecting northwesterly winds to gust up around 25-30 kts, with a
couple 35 kts gusts being possible. There is a 2% chance eastern
Colorado will see brief and isolated critical fire weather
conditions, as the front hits. Behind the front, cooler temperatures
will keep RH values too high for fire weather criteria.

Tonight and through the day tomorrow, we`re in a bit of a lull,
before our next trough hits. Lows in the 20s followed by highs in
the low to mid 50s are forecast as cloud coverage increases tomorrow
afternoon.

Tomorrow evening, around 3Z, the next 500 mb trough pushes into the
area as does 850 mb moisture. This is expected to lead to light
precipitation across most of the area between 3-15Z Wednesday.
Likely (70% confidence), QPF will be less than 0.05." Generally this
amount of precipitation won`t cause any issues, however, there is a
5% chance part of the CWA could see this fall as freezing rain. Most
likely area to see this ice threat occur would be between KS 27 and
U.S. 283, along and north of U.S. 40. If freezing rain occurs,
expect rapid accumulation of ice on nearly all surfaces. However,
there is a greater than 90% chance this precipitation falls as a
rain/snow mix, becoming more snowy as the night progresses. This
will lead to a black ice threat Wednesday morning. Northwesterly
winds of 10-20 kts should help wick away a lot of the rain before it
can freeze, but the snow and sub-freezing temperatures has a 20-30%
chance of causing black ice formation Wednesday morning. Lows
Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the 20s across the CWA.

Precipitation would likely last the longest in areas along and east
of a line from Benkelman, NE to Oakley, KS with lingering
precipitation ending by 18Z Wednesday. Highs during the day are
expected to warm to around 50, allowing any frozen precipitation to
melt rather quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

A split flow in the Western United States is forecast to be fully
established by Wednesday morning, providing northerly flow over the
forecast region. A modest 500-mb jet streak of 60-70 kts looks to be
over the Colorado Rockies, and could be providing enough rising
motion to produce snow dustings across the CWA. Two primary bands of
snow are possible with this system, one across Eastern Colorado, and
another across portions of West Kansas. Some localized areas may
receive between a quarter and half inch of snow from this system.
Most snowfall is forecasted to be completed by the late morning to
early afternoon. Highs on Wednesday could still reach the low-50s,
but prolonged snowfall in the morning along with northerly winds
throughout the afternoon could keep highs in the 40s.

Another shortwave trough embedded in the northerly to northwesterly
flow could begin to impact the area during the evening and overnight
hours Wednesday. This trough and attendant surface low pressure is
forecast to traverse South-Central Canada and the Great Lakes Region
throughout the night Wednesday and into Thursday. Westerly,
downsloping surface winds could be established across the CWA as
early as the late evening hours Wednesday in association with the
passing low, which could promote higher temperatures in the low to
mid-60s Thursday. Low RH air from the mountains is also possible
with this system, which could create localized critical fire danger.
However, a cold front during the late morning to early afternoon
could flip surface winds to northwesterly or north-northwesterly. If
this occurs, RH could be prevented from dropping to critical levels,
and high temperatures in the 50s instead of the 60s would be
possible. Based on NBM and ensemble model guidance, there is about
80-90% confidence that surface winds will have a northern component
by the late morning to early afternoon hours, which would inhibit
critical fire weather conditions. Still, a Red Flag Warning may be
needed if there is a delay in the cold front`s arrival, and westerly
winds are allowed to persist through the afternoon hours.

As the shortwave trough continues to dig southeast, redevelopment
may begin for the surface low pressure, which could briefly allow
weak westerly surface winds across the CWA to return. This may be
enough for low temperatures to remain in the upper-20s to low-30s
Thursday night, but a south-southeastward moving high pressure from
Canada would reestablish northerly surface winds by sunrise Friday.
High temperatures are currently forecast in the upper-50s to low-
60s, but prolonged northerly winds could keep highs in the low to
mid-50s.

Another shortwave trough looks to enter the United States from the
Pacific Friday afternoon, but there is some model divergence as to
how this shortwave should be handled. Some solutions indicate that
it will be absorbed by the two larger troughs in the Desert
Southwest and Northern Pacific, or it will be allowed to go around
the upper level ridge in the Western United States. What is most
certain regardless of model solutions is a return flow to develop
across the forecast region ahead of a modest surface low as early as
late Friday evening. This could allow for warm temperatures Saturday
afternoon, with most of the CWA currently forecast to be in the low-
60s. However, depending on when the cold front associated with the
low cuts off the return flow, high temperatures could be 10 degrees
higher or lower than the current forecast.

Moving forward from Saturday afternoon, there are some indications
that the split flow in the west could begin to break down. Model
guidance is inconsistent on when this will take place. Some
solutions indicate that the ridge will be overhead by Sunday
afternoon, while other solutions suggest northwesterly flow will
still be in place through the end of the forecast period. As long as
the northwesterly flow is in place, there is still the possibility
for periods of above and below average temperatures, as well as a
chance for light snow events. However, if the northwesterly flow is
allowed to break down by Sunday afternoon, warming could be favored
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 939 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

More pronounced southwesterly winds are forecast for GLD while
MCK remains light and variable through the remainder of the
overnight hours. VFR conditions are forecast to continue as
well. There is a less than 10% chance of some fog affecting
flight categories for MCK starting around 12Z. A cold front
moving through the area mid to late morning Monday is forecast
to lead to 25-30 knot wind gusts and a shift to more
northwesterly winds for each terminal with the potential for the
strongest lying at GLD. Winds are then forecast to wane as the
nocturnal inversion sets in during the late afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK/Davis
AVIATION...Trigg