Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

358
FXUS63 KGLD 041924
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
124 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms this afternoon and early evening are forecast
  to move across the region. Hail up to one inch and patchy
  blowing dust reducing visibility to a mile would be the
  primary hazards with these storms.

- Tuesday night through Wednesday, a rain/snow mix is forecast
  along and west of Kansas 27. Visibility down to 1 mile and a
  couple inches of snow accumulations may lead to slick and
  hazardous conditions.

- Tuesday and Wednesday nights, temperatures are forecast to
  cool into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Sensitive vegetation may
  be impacted by freezing temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Today, the 500 mb pattern becomes notably more active. In the
afternoon/evening, a Polar low near the Great Lakes will extend a
trough to the southwest, linking up with another low moving east
over the California coast. To the south, we`ll have the remnants of
the high decaying into a weak ridge. As this is happening in the
upper levels, an 850 mb low will strengthen over the CWA, dragging
in a late afternoon cold front. These features will cause widespread
vorticity Monday evening and overnight, which is the driving force
for our next decent round at precipitation.

Before the precipitation and cold front, temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s and low 80s, driving RH values across the area into
the mid teens, especially south of a weak dryline. As of 1730Z, this
dryline is seen on radar and observations draping across
northeastern Wichita county, arcing up to the Kit Carson and
Cheyenne (CO) county border. Fire weather threats are still low as
winds are forecast to remain under 20 kts ahead of the front.
However, occasional gusts up around 25 kts may occur, leading to
isolated briefly critical fire weather conditions.

The cold front is currently expected to enter the CWA from the
north/northeast around 19-21Z. The cold front, the aforementioned
dryline, and another weaker dryline, working with the 500 mb
vorticity will kick off convection this afternoon in two main areas.
The cold front will start some convection across the northern CWA,
which will trend to the east-southeast. The second dryline is very
weak, but basically runs just south of I-70 through Kansas before it
meets with the first dryline. Between the two dry lines is a moist
sector. This is the area we`re most worried about strong to severe
storms occurring due to better forcing. Recent model guidance now
shows locations along I-70 initiating at 19-22Z. Instability and
shear across the area looks low-end marginal to support severe
weather. Most likely threats from these storms would be 0.5-1 inch
hail and 40-55 MPH winds kicking up some blowing dust. Due to the
storm mode being more of a cluster, the threat of a wall of dust is
low, but any strong outflows could reduce visibility to less than a
mile in a plume. Lightning striking ahead of the precipitation could
also produce a fire threat. The strongest storms look to occur
between 20-02Z, becoming more stratiform after this time.

Tonight, temperatures look to cool into the 30s across most of the
area. The stratiform precipitation is expected to persist on and off
through the night. Embedded storms are possible, but there is
basically no threat of severe weather in the overnight hours. There
is a 10% chance some snow could mix in early Tuesday morning in the
northwestern CWA, but no impacts or accumulation are expected.

Throughout the day Tuesday, precipitation will persist and
temperatures will remain capped in the 40s to low 50s. We could
still see some embedded storms, but no severe weather is expected.

Overnight Tuesday, temperatures will cool into the upper 20s to mid
30s, due to CAA and the ongoing precipitation absorbing latent heat.
As mentioned, the precipitation will be continuing and we are
expecting snow to mix in. Most likely areas to see snow by Wednesday
morning will be along and west of KS 27. Light accumulations of snow
are possible, but roadways will likely become a slushy mix with
patchy ice.

Snowfall totals by Wednesday morning could be a couple of inches in
eastern Colorado, but the NBM is on the higher side of QPF
forecasts. To highlight this, NBM 10th percentile shows areas west
of U.S. receiving 0.5" of QPF and eastern Colorado receiving over
an inch. Looking at the REFS, the mean amount for the same time
period is 0.3" and 0.65" for the same areas. However, REFS mean
snowfall accumulation by 12Z Wednesday is very similar to the
NBM/NDFD, implying more of the precipitation will occur Tuesday
night as snow. Currently, no advisories have been issued for the
winter precipitation, but we may need one in eastern Colorado in the
coming forecast cycles.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

***Synopsis***

Upper-level troughing is forecast to be moving in overhead
Wednesday morning, with a slow-moving surface low pressure in
the Colorado Rockies. This low is favored to establish a zone of
convergence across Kansas Wednesday. As troughing moves off to
the east Thursday, a split flow pattern across the Western
United States looks to create northwesterly flow over the
forecast region. Ensemble guidance suggests the northwesterly
flow aloft could last through the end of the period. Several
shortwave systems may impact the forecast region during this
timeframe.

***Wednesday***

With upper-level troughing overhead on Wednesday, conditions are
expected to be climatically cooler, with highs as low as the mid-30s
across portions of Eastern Colorado. A Freeze Watch has been issued
for Wednesday night across the forecast region except for Graham and
Norton Counties in Kansas. Forecast and NBM guidance suggests lows
to be in the lower-20s to lower-30s. In addition, the convergence
zone across Kansas may be providing precipitation throughout the
day. LREF guidance is in favor of little to no CAPE (instability)
being present during this time period. Rather, this activity is
favored to be driven synoptically by low-level convergence, mid-
level warming, and incoming cyclonic motion aloft. NBM 24 hr
guidance suggests a fair chance for greater than 0.1 inches of
precipitation across the CWA Wednesday. Snowfall is also
possible Wednesday with the lower temperatures, potentially
lasting through the evening hours. Portions of Eastern Colorado
have a 50% chance or higher of 1 inch of snow or greater.
Additionally, any snow that falls across the region is
anticipated to be wet and heavy snow.

***Thursday-Monday***

As the northwesterly flow establishes itself aloft Thursday,
warmer conditions appear favored to return. Current guidance
suggests that high temperatures will remain around the 70s through
the end of the period, though the shortwave systems embedded in
the flow aloft may allow high temperatures to meander lower
into the 60s, or higher into the 80s depending on the timing of
the shortwaves. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday
through Sunday as these systems traverse the area, with LREF
guidance suggesting a few hundred J/kg of CAPE to be present
each day. NBM 72 hr precipitation guidance suggests that
activity between Thursday and Saturday has a chance of providing
a total greater than 0.1 inches. Even so, much of the
precipitation that falls during this period is forecast to be
light rain, with perhaps some weak, localized showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Worsening conditions are expected for both KGLD and KMCK
through the period. Winds will be variable before a cold front
moves in from the north. Behind the front, winds will become
northeasterly and gust up around 25 kts. Soon after, storms are
expected to start forming and move east. Storms will weaken into
fairly widespread precipitation, with KGLD being on the
southern end of the best precipitation chances. Off and on
precipitation chances will persist into Wednesday.

Around sunrise tomorrow morning, patchy fog and ceilings may
drop airports to IFR or even minimums. The ceilings look to
persist through at least the bulk of tomorrow. Temperatures will
be cooling and low level icing will become a major threat over
the next several days.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...CA