Crete, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

057
FXUS63 KOAX 021129
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
529 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog this morning, mainly near and west of a line from
  Norfolk to Lincoln. Visibility could drop below 1/2 mile with
  a few slick spots.

- Periodic, low precipitation chances (15-30%) tonight through
  early Wednesday. A wintry mix could fall at times, but is
  currently favored to remain light with little to no impact.

- Mild temperatures stick around this week, with highs in the
  30s and 40s through Wednesday and 40s and 50s from Thursday
  through Sunday. These warmer temperatures could allow river
  ice to break up and move, increasing the risk of ice jams.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Some lingering low clouds early this morning were slowly, but
surely pushing east with surface and mid-level ridging starting
to lead to mostly clear skies and light winds across most of
eastern NE as of 2 AM. As a result, some patchy fog was starting
to develop and become visible via satellite, with a few
observation sites reporting at least small visibility
reductions. That said, latest short term guidance continues to
trend toward less fog development into the early morning hours,
with HREF suggesting only spotty 20-40% chances of getting under
1/2 mile visibility. However, anything that does develop could
lead to some patchy slick spots on roads as temperatures are
well below freezing where we have cleared out. Otherwise, fog
should dissipate by mid-morning though some lingering low clouds
and incoming mid and high clouds will keep us cooler than what
we saw yesterday, with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

For tonight through Wednesday, guidance continues to suggest
we`ll have some precip chances as a few bits of shortwave energy
pass through/near the area. The first is currently spinning
over eastern MT and should approach the SD/NE border by this
evening with light precip not far behind. Model soundings
suggest snow and/or freezing drizzle with eventual loss of in-
cloud ice. Soundings also show we may go in and out of
saturation, so anything that does fall is expected to be quite
light and for the most part, unimpactful (10- 20% chance of a
dusting of snow/glaze of ice). Precip should come to an end
Tuesday morning with afternoon temperatures expected to top out
in the 30s area-wide.

The second wave and associated precip look to arrive Tuesday
night into Wednesday, though the strongest forcing and higher
precip chances look to remain just to our west. Still, many
solutions still clip our area with some light precip, giving us
a 15-30% chance. Forecast thermodynamic profiles look similar to
those of tonight with in-cloud ice coming and going and leading
to some snow and/or freezing drizzle. Once again, near-surface
levels may struggle to saturate, so anything that does fall in
our area should be light with relatively no impact. Any precip
should exit by late Wednesday morning with temperatures maybe a
few degrees warmer than those on Tuesday.

By Thursday, upper level ridging over the western CONUS will
start to edge a little farther east with low level westerly flow
helping to usher in much warmer temperatures. Expect highs in
the 50s for most of the area. By Friday morning, a surface cold
front will start to push into the area (guidance currently
favors a dry passage), though temperatures look to remain mild
into the weekend, with highs remaining in the 40s to lower 50s.
These continued warmer temperatures could start to lead to some
ice breakup and movement in area rivers, increasing the threat
of ice jams. However, night time lows look to remain below
freezing most nights, which should slow things down a little
bit.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Patchy fog has developed across central and northeast Nebraska
and should continue to expand through mid-morning. Guidance
favors IFR visibility staying west of OFK and LNK, though still
expect some periods of MVFR at OFK. To the east, an MVFR deck
remains over OMA and while it should edge east early in the
period, expect further southward development by late morning
early afternoon, with SCT to BKN clouds around 2500-3500 ft AGL.
Winds will remain light through the period, southeasterly during
the day and westerly to northwesterly at OFK/LNK and easterly
at OMA this evening and overnight. Guidance does show some light
snow/patchy freezing drizzle potential late in the period, but
confidence is too low to include at this time (15-20% chance).


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA