Rolla, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

022
FXUS63 KSGF 021050
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
450 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy light fog possible this morning. Dense fog chances are
  currently low (< 15%), but any places that do see localized
  dense fog could see a light glaze of ice on elevated
  surfaces.

- Snow melt continues today with warmer temperatures expected.
  Highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

- 15 to 25% light rain or drizzle chances across the eastern
  Ozarks on Tuesday. Low confidence is a brief period of light
  freezing drizzle possible during the early morning.

- After briefly cooler temperatures mid-week, temperatures warm
  to above average for the late week into next weekend with dry
  weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

This Morning-Tonight:
Another cold start this morning with temperatures in the teens
to lower 20s, with winds beginning to turn out of the south-
southeast. Moisture is gradually on the increase through the
morning into the afternoon as a aforementioned warm front lifts
through the area. Fog has struggled to develop this morning as a
result of dry air that remains in place over the area. The
latest HREF guidance still suggested some localized areas of
light fog to develop through early morning, but is expected to
remain limited in coverage and visibility reductions. There is
only around a 30% chance for visibilities to drop below 3 miles,
with the greatest chances focused west of Highway 65. Any light
fog that does develop should not pose a freezing fog/light
glaze. Dense fog potential is very low (< 10%). Most of the
area remains cold and quiet through this morning.

By this afternoon, temperatures will be on the warming trend has
mid-level height rises nudge into the area. Forecast
temperatures are progged to reach into the middle/upper 40s
(north and east) to lower/middle 50s (south and west). There is
still a bit of lingering uncertainty on high temperatures due
the existing snowpack and increasing cloud cover this afternoon,
that may keep prevent us from reaching the forecast highs.
Nonetheless, temperatures above freezing areawide will support
additional snowmelt to begin the week. Lows tonight fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Tuesday:
A dip in the jet stream on Tuesday with an associated shortwave
will bring a quick return of cooler temperatures and low
precipitation chances. As a cold front drops south into the area
on Tuesday morning, there may be just enough moisture to squeeze
out some light precipitation. Given the surface temperatures
around or just below freezing on Tuesday morning, there is a low
chance (15-25%) for a wintry mix of light drizzle and freezing
drizzle. The exact precipitation type would be a result of the
surface temperatures, and thus the timing of any precipitation.
Most of the guidance is leaning towards light drizzle at best,
with the PoPs clipping portions of the eastern Ozarks. Better
precipitation chances remain east of the area on Tuesday. Highs
on Tuesday fall back into the upper 30s (north) to middle/upper
40s (south).

Wednesday:
The chilliest day of the week comes on Wednesday with the axis
of the trough diving through the southeast CONUS. This will
support a return of highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s with a
brisk northerly wind.

Thursday-Sunday:
The cooler temperatures are short-lived as ensemble guidance
depicts a building ridge to the west of the area. A warming
trend is expected as the ridge and rising heights overspread the
area through late week into next weekend. This will support
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal as we progress into
the weekend. There is still some uncertainty on the positioning
of the ridge and its eastern extent into the area. Nonetheless,
temperatures are forecast to vary from upper 40s to upper 50s,
to perhaps 60 in far southeast KS and southern MO this weekend.
This pattern reinforces high confidence in little to no
precipitation chances through the end of the week and next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light south-southeast
winds at 5 to 10 knots through tonight, becoming more westerly
late in the TAF period ahead of an approaching front. Mid to
high level clouds increase through tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez