Tupelo, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

934
FXUS64 KMEG 201110
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
610 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Dry weather continues, with a general warming trend back into
  the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of the week.

- Elevated fire danger concerns will continue each afternoon
  through much of this week. Obey any local burn bans and properly
  dispose of cigarettes and matches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Dry weather continues throughout the Mid-South Monday evening
with temperatures steadily dropping amidst a very dry air mass.
Dewpoints currently sit between 35 - 45 F across the region which
is expected to allow for rapid cooling overnight. Some sites have
already dropped to at or below to the new forecast NBM minimum
temperature, which is expected to continue across mainly West
Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi tonight. So, expect lows
in the 40s with some areas, like West Tennessee and northeast
Mississippi, possibly dropping to near 40 for below. If areas are
able to drop into the 30s patchy frost could occur, but
confidence is not high enough to mention tonight.

Tuesday will see more of the same dry and warm weather with
temperatures climbing back into the 70s and low 80s. An upper
ridge will begin to gradually amplify over the southern CONUS
through the middle of the week, which alongside a persistent area
of high pressure over the region, will lead to the continuation
of dry and warm weather through the remainder of the week. So,
daily highs are forecast to climb into the 70s and 80s through
the forecast period. Dewpoints will also remain very low, leading
to forecast afternoon relative humidities at or below 30% across
the majority of the region. Therefore, fire weather danger will
remain elevated through the rest of the week.

Ensembles are in very good agreement that the ridge will begin to
trudge east into this weekend, eventually getting flattened out
by a trough over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. The
resulting pattern will then place the remnants of the ridge over
the Mid-South. Additionally, surface high pressure will remain in
place with southerlies retaining enough of an easterly component
to recycle the current air mass back into the region. So, it
seems that the warm and dry weather will persist through this
weekend and into the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions with light NNE winds will prevail through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will be in place daily throughout
the Mid-South through the remainder of this week. Another
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be in effect through Tuesday
afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to
remain at or below 30 percent for the majority of the region each
day through at least this week. Additionally, FEMS fuel moisture
content forecasts continue to show fuel moisture values bottoming
out around 10 percent with no wetting rains in sight. 20-foot
winds will remain light enough to avoid warranting any Red Flag
Warnings, but additional Rangeland Fire Danger Statements are
expected through the forecast period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC