Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

789
FXUS63 KARX 060543
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold start to the week with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
  below normal for today and Tuesday. Lows tonight fall into the
  teens, possibly even a few single digit readings towards
  central Wisconsin.

- Passing light snow showers today, mainly east of the
  Mississippi River. No snow accumulation or impacts expected.

- Light rain/snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, followed
  by more widespread rain Wednesday night. Most areas should see
  less than an inch (<10% chance of exceeding 1").

- The potential exists for more rounds of rain into the weekend,
  possibly heavy as we look into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Today - Tuesday: Colder, Scattered Snow Showers Today

Colder air is filtering southward in the wake of our cold front
that swept through this past evening, setting the stage for a
chilly start to the new week. Boundary layer lapse rates steepen
quickly around or shortly after sunrise due to ongoing
differential cold air advection and many HREF members show
upright instability in place by mid-morning. Despite surface
temps rising into the mid to upper 30s by the afternoon, the
aforementioned steep lapse rates and wet-bulb values at or
below zero will allow any convectively generated snow showers to
penetrate to the surface at warmer temperatures that one might
expect.

Explicit reflectivity progs from the various CAMs show
isolated coverage of these showers at best, likely owing to the
increasing subsidence off an approaching high to the northwest.
Therefore, have only gone with low (10-20%) coverage PoPs,
highest into central Wisconsin where the MAUL extends up into
the DGZ. Not expecting any accumulations from these showers and
therefore no impacts to travel.

As the aforementioned surface high approaches this afternoon,
showers should wane and skies clear for tonight. There is high
confidence (>80%) that lows crater into the teens under this
setup. Still cannot rule out single digit readings (20-40%
chance) in favored locales in central Wisconsin such as the sand
bogs.


Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night: Several Rounds of Precip

A ribbon of isentropic upglide/theta-e advection lifts
northward on the backside of the departing ridge Tuesday
evening, fueling a band of light precipitation. The big
question is exactly what precipitation type is realized at the
surface, a function of how soon the precip starts and how
quickly surface temperatures can rise above freezing. The EPS
members are slightly cooler at onset and start the precip as
snow for more of the region, whereas the warmer GEFS members
keep the risk for snow more confined into Wisconsin.

Either way you slice the forecast, the impacts from any snow
look to be negligible with warm ground temperatures and warming
surface temperatures through the night. Towards central
Wisconsin, there is a faint signal that the above freezing warm
nose could arrive before surface temperatures respond, resulting
in a brief window of freezing rain. Again, with ongoing warm
air advection and the window of opportunity looking to be a few
hours at best, impacts from freezing rain should be minimal to
none.

Most of the day on Wednesday could be on the dry side with a
few pop-up showers possible in the warm sector before a cold
front approaches in the afternoon. With the mid to upper-level
flow parallel to the frontal orientation, there could be some
training storm motions along the front as it moves through.
However, with the overall progressive motion of the front and
limited mid-level moisture, rainfall amounts from this line are
not expected to be overly impactful with a <10% chance of
exceeding 1" from the various NBM ensemble members.


End of the Week into Early Next Week: Heavy Rain Threat

Shifting later into the week as the upper level pattern takes
on more of a zonal orientation, confidence remains low on the
exact placement of the surface baroclinic zone, which will play
heavily into the trajectory and strength of the later week
storms. Trends over the last 24 hours have favored keeping the
heaviest rain south of the forecast area for Thursday through
Saturday, but being 5 days out, this boundary could still
wobble northward.

Moving into the Sunday to Monday (April 12-13) timeframe, there
is an increasing signal for a stronger synoptic system to
impact the region and bring widespread moderate to heavy rain to
the north central CONUS. With this system being 7 to 8 days
out, plenty can still change in the forecast, but the consistent
signal in the global models at this time range is noteworthy.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

MVFR stratus over central and southern Minnesota will continue
shifting southeastward overnight, bringing MVFR restrictions to
the area. Some low potential for IFR ceilings remains for those west
of the Mississippi River and at higher elevations, but
probabilities for IFR restrictions remain 10-20% in the NBM.
Ceilings begin to lift through the morning hours, becoming VFR
in the afternoon.

Northwest winds will continue across the region with
gusts of 20-25KT during the morning to early afternoon before
diminishing into the evening hours. Isolated snow showers along
and east of the Mississippi River remain possible during the
late morning into the afternoon as well. Outside of brief
visibility reductions, impacts associated with these showers
will be minimal.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Crests continue to work downstream along the Black, Kickapoo,
Lemonweir, Wisconsin, and Yellow rivers. With little rainfall
expected before Wednesday afternoon, the overall forecasts
should remain more or less on track. By the time the midweek
rainfall arrives, a number of locations should have crested.
Therefore, the impacts from any rain midweek will likely only
delay the fall of the rivers rather than result in secondary
crests. It remains too soon to see how the potential for heavy
rain later in the upcoming weekend would impact the rivers.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skow
AVIATION...Falkinham
HYDROLOGY...Skow