Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

954
FXUS63 KARX 161828
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
128 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Main forecast concern continues to be wildfire smoke causing
  unhealthy to hazardous air quality this afternoon into Friday
  morning for the northeastern half of the local forecast area
  from southeast Minnesota into southwest and central Wisconsin.

- Medium-low confidence (20-40%) in precipitation potential
  today with heavy rain as the main concern where storms form.

- Next best chances for widespread rain/storms looks to come
  early next week Monday into Tuesday with a low chance (less
  than 15%) of seeing some strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Rain Chances This Afternoon and Evening

Early this afternoon, a small cluster of showers has formed along
and west of a quasi-stationary front draped across SE Minnesota and
NE Iowa. The airmass in this area is very unstable with 2000-3000
J/kg of SBCAPE with little to no capping west of the boundary where
smoke has stayed much more diffuse, if present at all. These showers
are very pulse-like in nature though as shear remains hard to come
by with less than 20 kts of effective shear expected through the
afternoon. Some of these may develop into storms with some marginal
lightning threat later this afternoon as destabilization continues
through the afternoon. The main impact with any showers and
storms will be heavy rainfall as PWats across the region are
still around 1.5 inches. And given the lack of steering flow,
storms will tend to sit over the same area so they will drop all
their water in one place. A quick 0.5-1 inch(es) of rain won`t
be unheard of in locations under these showers given some of the
QPF seen from yesterday`s showers in the same airmass and
overall setup. Some brief gusty winds can`t be ruled out with
some collapsing cores given DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg across
the region but it`s unlikely any gusts reach strong to severe
thresholds. These showers and storms will gradually drift
northeast into the evening hours with the boundary and dissipate
as diurnal heating wanes and the nighttime inversion sets back
up.

Smoke and Air Quality Concerns into Friday

Near surface smoke lingers across most of SE Minnesota and Wisconsin
this afternoon with hazardous air quality conditions lingering into
tomorrow. Visibilities have improved for many outside of North
Central Wisconsin to around 3-5 miles with locations further north
that are more solidly in the fetch of dense smoke still at or below
2 miles. Air quality index values for much of the area remain in the
unhealthy to hazardous categories and this is expected to linger
into tomorrow morning before smoke finally starts to move
northeast as southwesterly low level flow starts to pick up
through the morning hours. Air quality alerts for both Minnesota
and Wisconsin run through 11am/Noon Friday with any extensions
to be decided upon tomorrow. Unfortunately, this may not be the
end of the smoke as round 2 of smoke may come back for Saturday
as winds turn back to the north and pull some of that smoke back
south. It`s still uncertain as to whether air quality alerts
will be needed for this potential second round of smoke but it
will be something to monitor over the next day or two.

Precipitation Chances into Early Next Week:

The next solid chance for precipitation across the region looks to
come Monday into Tuesday as the upper ridge retrogrades to the west
and allows for a modestly strong shortwave trough axis to drop
south/southeast out of the Western Hudson Bay/Manitoba and into the
Upper Midwest. While instability in the range of 2000-3000 MUCAPE
and strong vertical shear look to coincide on Monday, the main
question will be with convective inhibition given an expected
stout EML in place. As this is 5 days out, there is still plenty
of time for things to change and shift but this looks to be the
next time we could see some widespread rain and maybe some
severe weather. Surface high pressure looks to build in behind
this as we transition to northwest flow aloft. Luckily for us,
this means cooler temperatures in the 70s and 80s are on the
horizon for next week to give us some relief from this
blistering 90+ degree heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

MVFR to IFR vsbys persist across portions of western WI and
southeast MN this afternoon and into the evening as near-surface
smoke fields in the HRRR slowly push the smoke northeast overnight.
A few showers and a stray thunderstorm are possible (20-40%) this
afternoon and evening which may result in MVFR to IFR vsby
reductions as well. Visibility reductions will gradually improve
overnight before smoke exits the local area during the morning hours
on Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated for Friday
morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barendse
AVIATION...Naylor