Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

903
FXUS63 KARX 011753
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1153 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain for early this week with a good chance at
  seeing at least 1" of rain (>70%).

- Temperatures remain above normal with highs in the upper 50s
  to mid 60s for early this week then trending slightly cooler
  for the rest of the week with highs staying in the mid 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Today - Wednesday: Drier Today with Widespread Rain for Early
Next Week

The trough responsible for the light rain we had the past two days,
moves off to the east this morning. A shortwave impulse of energy
does pass through the CWA this morning that could lead to some rain
showers developing (10 to 20%), mainly north of I-90. All
precipitation chances diminish by late morning. Shortwave ridging
arrives for the rest of the day and into Monday as stronger warm air
advection causes temperatures to rise back into mid 60s.

Heading into Monday, the forecast remains on track for a longwave
trough to move over our region through at least midweek. A surface
low forms in the north-central Plains and lifts off to the northeast
on Monday. Abundant moisture will be in place as the NAEFS
percentiles for PWATs remain in the 99th to maximum percentile as
PWATs of 1.4 to 1.7 are expected. This will lead to widespread
rainfall for much of early this week. Some forecast soundings and
ensemble members do show a couple hundred joules of MUCAPE that
could be enough to have some isolated thunderstorms develop on both
Monday and Tuesday. The location of the heaviest rain continues to
be off to our northwest, however there remains a good chance (>70%)
for at least an inch across the CWA with a lower chance (10%) for
higher rain totals in the 2 to 3" range. While we will see a strong
push of southwesterly flow into the region, temperatures should stay
in the low 60s for highs and low to mid 50s for lows given the cloud
cover and constant rain.

Thursday - The Weekend: Trending Drier with Above Normal
Temperatures

As the low moves away on Thursday, there is a chance that we could
see some wrap around rain showers and as such, the NBM loaded in
some 20 to 40% PoPs for Thursday. There a couple of waves that move
through the Upper Midwest, however it is too far out to see if the
will have any impact or rain chances for the region. Cluster
analysis looks to support a split flow where the polar jet stays off
to our north and the subtropical jet to our south. This would result
in temperatures staying above normal, around 10 degrees or so,
resulting in highs staying in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the
mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon and evening will give way to MVFR
conditions overnight ahead of an incoming weather disturbance. As
this disturbance moves closer to the region, cigs will continue to
fall with increasing chances for showers, eventually with showers
trending prevailing by late morning on Monday. Additionally, there
are high probabilities (60-80% in the recent HREF) for cigs to fall
to IFR levels during the morning hours across much of the region on
Monday. Additionally, IFR vsbys may accompany heavier showers
at times. Winds will increase from the southeast to around 5-15
kts during the morning on Monday with gusts as high as 30 kts
across unsheltered areas of southeast Minnesota and northeast
IA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Naylor