Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

215
FXUS63 KDLH 062000
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
300 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warmup is expected today with high temps 10-15 degrees above
  normal.

- A little cooler Wednesday through Friday while still on the
  warm side of normal.

- Another warmup Saturday with highs 15-25 degrees above normal.

- Widespread rain chances return Sunday and persist through
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:

The cold front will progress farther southeast across the area
tonight. Winds will remain gusty into early evening and may be
gusty all night as cold air advection develops. The wind will
keep temperatures from falling too far. Lows tonight will be in
the low to upper 40s.

A stronger surge of cold air advection arrives Wednesday along
with a northwesterly low-level jet. Diurnal heating will
support wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Scattered to isolated rain
showers may develop during the afternoon in response to the
heating beneath colder air aloft. The best chance of a few
sprinkles, at least, is found over the Arrowhead and portions of
northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures will be a little cooler than
today, though still a few degrees above normal, with highs in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Winds will diminish slightly
Wednesday night and may remain gusty as cold air advection
persists.

Thursday will see temps another few degrees cooler than
Wednesday with highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Northwest
winds will not be as strong. Friday temperatures trend a few
degrees warmer.

SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:

Heading into the weekend the upper-level pattern is expected to
transition from split flow with a quasi-zonal wind field over
the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies to a southwesterly
pattern with a ridge building over the eastern Great Lakes.
Surface low pressure is expected to develop in the lee of the
Canadian Rockies Friday as a longwave trough digs into the
northern US Rockies.

Warm and moist air advection will develop over the Upper
Midwest Saturday morning which will result in well above normal
temperatures. Highs in the middle to upper 60s are expected over
the eastern Arrowhead with low to middle 70s over north-central
and portions of central Minnesota. The warmest temperatures
will be in the I-35 corridor east into northwest Wisconsin where
upper 70s and low 80s are forecast as of this afternoon. The
strongest isentropic ascent will be north of the area over
northwest Ontario and precipitation chances are low.

A cold front will move into the region Sunday. Ahead of the
front PWATs will increase to 0.75-1.3 inches due to the
persistent theta-e advection in the southwest flow aloft. Rain
chances will increase for the second half of the weekend in
response to the ascent provided by the cold front. The front is
forecast to stall over the Upper Midwest keeping isentropic lift
and rain chances in the picture Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Gusty southwest and winds this afternoon will turn westerly and
northwesterly this afternoon and evening as a cold front passes
over the terminals. Winds may remain gusty overnight. If winds
can become calm at HIB and BRD, a brief period of LIFR fog is
possible. The drier air in the wake of the cold front and winds
expected overnight put the potential of fog at about 10%. Gusty
northwest winds are forecast Wednesday. There is a small risk of
low-level wind shear during the morning as a northwesterly low-
level jet passes over the terminals. The latest forecast has the
core of the jet around 3-5kft AGL providing a vector difference
between the surface and 2kft of only around 20-25 knots.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through late this
afternoon from Grand Marais to Grand Portage and from Port Wing
to Saxon Harbor for south to southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 25 knots and waves 1 to 4 feet. Winds veer
westerly tonight and ease to 5 to 10 knots. Gusty west to
northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots
will return Wednesday, and another round of Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed. Winds and waves subside
Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusty winds and building waves
return Saturday and persist through early next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Drier air moves into the region behind a cold front starting
tonight. Wednesday will see afternoon RH values between 30 and
45 percent. Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest at
10 to 18 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Afternoon relative
humidity values on Wednesday will drop into the 30 to 45 percent
range, with portions of northwest Wisconsin potentially seeing
RH values below 30 percent. Minimum RH values remain 30 to 50
percent Thursday and Friday with lighter winds. Rain chances
return Sunday and persist into the work week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
     140-146>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Huyck
FIRE WEATHER...Huyck