Cottage Grove, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

133
FXUS63 KMPX 162015
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
315 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense wildfire smoke is creating hazardous air quality and
  reduced visibility for much of the coverage area, lasting
  into Friday morning.

- Dangerous heat expected to persist into Friday, despite a
  small respite for all areas outside of the Twin Cities metro
  for today. This is a long duration and cumulative threat due
  to highs in the low-mid 90s and heat indices from the mid 90s
  to near 100 degrees.

- Isolated showers are possible tonight along and east of I-90.
  Higher likelihood for rain comes Sunday night into Monday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

For anyone in central to eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin this
goes without saying, but widespread smoke has covered most of
the area today. It is slowly beginning to recede, but remains
thick across Wisconsin and northern/eastern Minnesota where
visibilities of 1-3 miles continue to be observed. In western
and southern Minnesota, conditions remain partly sunny with a
scattered cu field and no smoke impacts. Air quality alerts
remain in effect through Friday morning for much of the area.
With several sensors across the region measuring air quality
indices in excess of 500, a handful of records have been
preliminarily broken across the Upper Midwest. Many locations
experienced or are currently experiencing the Hazardous
category, which is as bad as it gets. For more information on
this, we recommend looking at the Pollution Control Agency`s
website: pca.state.mn.us as well as referencing the Air Quality
Alert on our webpage.

Though the front that brought the smoke down has minimal upper
level support, a few isolated showers are possible in eastern
MN into western WI this evening. This would be similar to what
developed late Wednesday afternoon. Nothing concerning or
enough to appreciably clear out the hazardous wildfire smoke
from the air, but still a small chance of rain. At time of
writing, there has been a slow moving shower soaking Pepin
county in WI over the last 30 minutes, and it is more of this
type that we may see.

Pivoting from smoke, air quality, and precipitation, we must
also address the continued heat. Today has remained relatively
in-check given the smoke cover limiting heating abilities.
Temperatures across the area are in the upper 80s to low 90s,
with max heat indices in the mid 90s. This is expected to
change again tomorrow as the smoke disperses in response to an
area of low pressure developing in the Dakotas. This will lead
to temperatures heating back up into the mid 90s as they were
earlier in the week. The Extreme Heat Warning for the TC metro
continues due to the prolonged urban heat island effects, the
likelihood of lows remaining in the 70s (no recovery) and the
lower threshold. A heat advisory may be warranted across the
area on Friday, but given the uncertainty with the smoke
forecast, it is too soon to make any decision on that. What can
be said with more certainty is to expect another day of heat and
humidity on Friday, regardless of what headlines are in place.

The ridge will finally break down over the weekend, allowing
for a more organized frontal system to push through the region
late Sunday into early Monday. This will be the best chance for
fairly widespread precipitation across our coverage area.
Chances have been upped to the Likely category with forecast QPF
just under 0.25". After this system, precipitation will be
lacking, but noticeably lower temperatures are expected. Highs
drop to the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday through Monday,
then fall to the lower 80s Tuesday through Thursday. In
addition, overnight lows will drop to the upper 50s to mid 60s
Monday night through Thursday night. So for those sick of the
heat, the end is in sight!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Significant visibility reductions due to wildfire smoke
continues to be the primary concern to open the 18z TAF period.
Short term hi-res guidance displays improvements in the surface
visibility scenario as a boundary lifts north this afternoon.
Have extended smoke mention through late afternoon at
STC/MSP/RNH & EAU. VFR conditions will return once the highest
concentration of smoke flushes out of the picture.

A few showers or an isolated storm may bubble up across eastern
MN/western WI this afternoon. Confidence in coverage and
intensity is too low to include in the MSP/RNH TAFs, but a
short term AMD may be needed based on observational trends.

KMSP...Visibility should improve during the first 6-hours of the
18z TAF period. Short term guidance depicts the potential for a
few showers or a storm near the terminal from mid-afternoon
through early evening. Confidence was too low to include a
mention in the TAF, but will monitor trends through peak
heating for a short term AMD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA PM. Wind S 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Chc -RA AM. Wind WNW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...Strus