Apple Valley, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

215
FXUS63 KMPX 182332
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
632 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunder this afternoon, mainly across
southern and southwestern MN.

- Marginal risk of severe weather (1/5) Friday for damaging wind
gust and large hail risk.

- Temperatures still cooler than normal, but warming back up to
normal (highs around 80) by next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A mix of clouds and sun will continue for the rest of this
afternoon. Temperatures currently range in the upper 60s breezy NW
winds gusting between 15-20 mph. Today`s conditions feel like we
more so in October than we are late-June. A weak cold frontal
boundary that is coupled with an upper level low will continue to
sink southeastward for the rest of this afternoon. HREF guidance
does show some hints of maximized instability mostly confined to
southwestern and southern MN. Albeit instability is limited to only
~500j/kg MUCAPE. The NBM primarily had its focus on PoPs southwest
of the MN River Valley but based on latest radar trends, have
manually increased pops to slight mentions in southern MN and
western WI. Precipitation coverage is expected to be isolated to
scattered at best which should prevent any evening plans from
being rained out. Lows tonight fall to near 50 degrees for most
with a few upper 40s across central Minnesota and portions of
western Wisconsin.

Friday appears to be a bit more active compared to today`s forecast.
Broad upper-level troughing over the northern plains this week
finally begins to progress eastward. On the backside of this trough,
another compact shortwave develops over the eastern Dakotas and
moves SE`ward towards Wisconsin. There is some uncertainty between
guidance on how tomorrow plays out in terms of precip. Moisture
is expected to advected back up through the Upper Mississippi
Valley tomorrow however dew points are expected to only creep up
into the mid-50s. Additionally, remnant early morning precip
could limit tomororw`s ability for atmospheric recovery. MUCAPE
values ranging between 500-1000 J/kg coupled with ~50kts of
shear does raise enough concern for the SPC to issue a marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
HRRR guidance is being the most pessimistic model with a few
weak scattered cells that move through mid-afternoon. Other CAM
guidance favor better organized multi-clusters and broken line
segments that could produce isolated damaging wind gusts and
large hail. As for QPF, most areas can expect less than a
quarter-inch through Friday evening with localized areas seeing
closer to a few tenths of a inch with any stronger convection.

Once the shortwave clears our region Friday, high pressure becomes
the dominant feature this weekend. It should be a nice one with
temperatures in the 70s and dew points remaining in the lower 50s.
Another low pressure system does scoot across IA/MO brining rain
chances across Iowa. Southern MN as of now does feature low-end rain
chances but the more likely outcome is dry forecast. Next week
begins a gradual return to warmer temperatures near 80 degrees
with another shot of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions expected through the evening and overnight hours.
SCT-BKN CU at 5-8 kft ongoing for all terminals, SCT-BKN CU will
dissipate around sunset with skies become SKC. Winds currently
out of the NW at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts will decrease
around sunset, quickly becoming less than 10 knots by 02Z. Winds
will become light and VRB during the overnight and morning
hours.

Scattered showers are likely tomorrow morning from west to east
across area between 12-17Z. An isolated rumble of thunder will
be possible embedded within the shower activity. PROB30 for
SHRA and 4SM will remain in TAFs for all terminals for this
issuance. CIGs will lower to OVC AOB 5 kft due to the
aforementioned showers. Showers will depart by 18Z with winds
becoming W/NW at 8-12 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible. ISO
TSRA will be possible during the late afternoon and evening
hours, with better chances for thunder during this round of
activity.

KMSP...VFR conditions with decreasing winds and clearing skies
this evening, lasting through the early morning hours. Rain
showers expected expected 16-18Z with minor reductions to VIS
and OVC at 5 kft. A second round of activity is possible during
the late afternoon and evening timeframe, with better chances
for thunder. PROB30 remains in the TAF due to activity being
isolated to widely scattered. Winds during the afternoon will
become westerly (northwesterly in the late evening) at 8-12
knots with gusts to 20 knots possible.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT... VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
SUN... VFR. Wind ENE at 5-10 kts.
MON... VFR. Wind NE at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...LPR