Arlington, Massachusetts 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

845
FXUS61 KBOX 021113
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
613 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Statement issued for the Rhode Island and
Massachusetts south coast for the 7-8 AM Monday high tide, with
splashover looking likely. Coastal Flood Advisory for the
Massachusetts east coast continues for the late-morning high tide.
Generally uneventful workweek otherwse, but we are monitoring
the potential for a significant Arctic air outbreak this
weekend. Dangerously low wind chills, gusty winds and freezing
spray for the waters are all possible this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor coastal flooding along the eastern Massachusetts
  coastline for the late-morning/noontime high tide, with
  splashover to very minor coastal flooding for the Rhode
  Island/Massachusetts south coast for the early morning high
  tide.

- Generally tranquil through the workweek. Less-below- normal
  temperatures through midweek, although turns a bit blustery
  Wed and Thu.

- More active late-week and especially this weekend. Minor
  accumulating snow from a passing Clipper system Fri/Fri night.
  Then a period of gusty winds and deep Arctic air favoring the
  potential for dangerous wind chills this weekend, with gale
  force winds and freezing spray over the waters. Ocean effect
  snow could be possible, too.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Minor coastal flooding along the eastern
Massachusetts coastline for the late-morning/noontime high tide,
with splashover to very minor coastal flooding for the Rhode
Island/Massachusetts south coast for the early morning high tide.

One last high tide cycle to go, and coastal flooding expectations
for the eastern Massachusetts coast remain unchanged. Storm surge
values should clock in lower than yesterday, at around 1 to 1.5 ft,
but the morning high tide is about a half-foot higher than the one
that took place Sunday evening. Minor coastal flooding (inundation
about 1 ft deep) seems most likely, with beach erosion still a
concern given the continued built-up offshore waves and impact over
the past two high tide cycles. There is also the continued potential
for some of the storm surge to freeze on the typically vulnerable
shoreline roads and become icy. The Coastal Flood Advisory remains
valid for the east coast. Looking ahead, decreasing astro tides for
the evening high tide, in lockstep with easing storm surge and
lowering seas, should then end the threat for coastal flooding.

However we did add a Coastal Flood Statement for the Rhode Island
and Massachusetts South Coast, including Narragansett and Buzzards
Bays for the early morning high tide around 7-8 AM. Looking back at
tidal gages at Fox Point and New Bedford from yesterday, the
observed surge was lower than forecast because of the strong
northerly winds. Now that those have subsided, observed storm
surge values are now higher than they were yesterday, at around
1.6-1.7 ft. Thinking that storm surge values will be gradually
coming down to around 1-1.25 ft due to rising sea-level
pressures, but that decrease from a total-water-level
perspective could be offset by the higher astro tide values
associated with the morning high tide (see above). Splashover
seems more likely with total water levels at Fox Point clocking
in just under 7 ft minor flooding benchmarks, but there is the
potential for minor coastal flooding as a worst- case scenario
if surge is slower to subside.

Key Message 2...Generally tranquil period through the workweek.
Less-below-normal temperatures through midweek, although turns
a bit blustery Wed and Thu.

Otherwise, a generally uneventful workweek looks be the case
with prevailing dry weather, despite Southern New England still
being governed by northwest flow. Temperatures modify somewhat
toward less- below-normal levels, with highs in the upper 20s to
the mid 30s. For context, climo highs are in the upper 30s.
Couple weak disturbances in that flow could bring a bit more
cloud cover and blustery conditions Wed and Thu, with highs
around the mid to upper 20s.

Key Message 3: More active late-week and especially this weekend.
Minor accumulating snow from a passing Clipper system Fri/Fri night.
Then a period of gusty winds and deep Arctic air favoring the
potential for dangerous wind chills this weekend, with gale
force winds and freezing spray over the waters. Ocean effect
snow could be possible, too.

More active weather pattern starting late Fri night/Sat, but
especially for this weekend. Pretty strong mid-level disturbance in
the northwest flow and associated surface Clipper low pressure
system digs southeastward into the Northeast later Fri/Fri night.
Pretty energetic system overall but likely lacking of moisture and
its progressive nature could limit snow accums as it moves
offshore. At first look potential for hazardous accums looks
low, with minor/nuisance snow accums more favored.

The more significant and potentially hazardous period however looks
to develop this weekend. The potent mid-level shortwave closes off
into a wound-up mid-level circulation, with the surface Clipper
low pressure system slowing and really strengthening as it
nears the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile a strong 1038+ mb high
develops into the Gt Lakes, creating a tight northerly pressure
gradient and advects southward what is easily the coldest air
thus far this winter (e.g. multi- model ensembles suggest 850 mb
temps as low as 30 below zero in the Berkshires, and in the 20
below zero range all the way to the southern coast!). We`ve had
Arctic outbreaks with periods of low wind chills in the recent
past, but the modeled temperatures are a different level of
frigid air. This cold has been advertised recently in CPC
Hazards Outlooks; what also adds confidence to potentially
dangerously- low wind chills is that MEX MOS guidance wind
speeds Saturday and Sunday are as high as 35 knots, perhaps in
response to the deepening offshore cyclone. Very impressive
signal for a Day-6 to Day-7 MOS forecast as MOS often trends
toward climatology at that timeframe. Though still some details
to iron out, there is somewhat higher confidence on dangerous
wind chills Sat and Sun, to go along with accretion of freezing
spray and gale- or- stronger-force NW winds over the waters.
What`s less certain and lower confidence is if we can generate
ocean effect bands of snow for the eastern coast. Although this
sounds like an especially harsh period of significant cold, a
very early outlook into the early part of the following week
suggests this level of cold could be short-lived, with multi-
model support for a pattern change toward modifying southwest
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds around 10 kt, occasional gusts to 20 kt at times
eastern airports, but speeds decrease late in the day.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR, light west winds.

Tuesday: High Confidence

VFR. Light SW winds under 10 knots.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. NW winds around 10 kt (occasional gusts to 20 kt) thru
daytime hours, then easing NW wind speeds and becoming light W
by pre-dawn Tue.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

VFR. NW winds around 10 knots through today, becoming light W
late tonight.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gradually improving marine conditions today with high pressure
starting to build in. Winds diminish to under 20 knots from the
NW today, however seas will be slower to diminish, staying
around 6 to 9 feet today. Seas finally drop under 5 feet early
Tuesday morning. Freezing spray remains possible this morning
before temperatures inland warm this afternoon.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Freezing spray.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231-
     232-235-237.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ231>234-236-251-255.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP