Bel Air North, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

280
FXUS61 KLWX 201918
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
218 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building across the Mid-Atlantic today will
provide a brief reprieve from the recent gusty conditions. A
weak cold front will cross Sunday morning, followed bye
transient area of high pressure on Monday. A low pressure
system moving through the Great Lakes may will affect the area
late Monday night into Tuesday. Another transient area of high
pressure on Wednesday may give way to a warm front on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The pressure gradient has relaxed quite a bit following the
gusty winds yesterday as high pressure briefly builds in.
Satellite imagery shows high clouds building in from the west
associated with a jet streak aloft. Highs this afternoon will
range from the upper 30s in the mtns to mid 40s across the I-95
corridor. Cannot rule out some low 50s in the warmer locales in
the Shenandoah Valley or Central VA.

Clouds increase through the night ahead of the next boundary
associated with a low pressure system in Ontario. The clouds
coupled with SW winds will result in milder lows tonight
(generally low to mid 30s, upper 20s in some western locales).
At the SFC, SW winds with gusts to 15-20 mph are possible (up to
35 mph in terrain).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak/dry cold front will sweep through early Sunday. The cold
front will be in airmass change only, as downsloping winds
actually warm temperatures several degrees higher than today
outside the Alleghenies (highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s, though
20s to 30s in the mtns). Lows Sunday night will drop off into
the 20s, with teens in spots due to continued CAA.

Quick area of high pressure builds in Monday with temperatures
actually near or slightly below average for most.

A flatter shortwave trough and relatively weak wave of low
pressure will move toward the Great Lakes Monday night. There is
some potential for an area of light warm advection
precipitation to spread into the area, especially during the
second half of the night. Surface temperatures may be on either
side of the freezing mark, depending on how quickly cloud cover
increases and how much southerly flow is realized at the
surface. On top of that, thermal profiles aloft are also
uncertain, although generally warming with time. Thus there
could be some potential for freezing rain anywhere low level
cold air remains trapped. Should any snow occur on the front
end, the most probable place for that to occur would be mainly
north and east of Washington DC. With all that said, many areas
may just see rain should precipitation occur at all.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As a warm front tracks through, expect some residual rain
chances on Tuesday morning for those along and east of I-95.
Back along the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the flow
will keep rain in the forecast through the afternoon hours.
Relative to previous days, conditions will be mild with most
seeing high temperatures in the 50s. This comes with southerly
breezes up to 20 to 25 mph, with 30 to 40 mph gusts in the
mountains. The cold front attached to an upper trough crossing
northern New England will move through Tuesday evening. In the
wake, expect a gusty westerly wind in the mountains with speeds
up to 40 to 45 mph through the evening and early overnight
hours. Forecast lows will be in the 30s with skies gradually
clearing through the night.

There should be a brief mid-week cool down ahead of milder
conditions headed toward Christmas and beyond. Aside from the
Alleghenies, most start off with plenty of sunshine with high
pressure in place. Skies cloud up later in the day ahead of an
upstream warm front. Forecast highs on Wednesday will range
from the 40s to mid 50s (coolest in the mountains and near the
Mason-Dixon Line). Rain chances come in overnight into Christmas
Day.

The mentioned warm front moves into the area on Christmas Day
aiding in mild conditions and passing showers. Low-level
southwesterly flow will ensure above average temperatures as
highs push into the 50s to low 60s. The local cool spot may be
over northeastern Maryland with temperatures in the mid/upper
40s. Thus, expect another year without a White Christmas.
Further warming is likely into Friday with widespread upper 50s
to mid 60s in the forecast. This is all in response to a
building upper ridge initially centered over the southern U.S.

Amplified flow passes by to the north early next weekend which
ushers in the next frontal zone. This allows for some cooling as
winds shift to northwesterly. A few additional showers are
possible as this pattern shift unfolds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds remain SW through
the afternoon with gusts to 15-20 kts. Some uncertainty remains
with how much winds decrease after sunset. That will be
important for possible LLWS development. It will peak around
40-45 kt around 1500 ft with some potential for a low level
inversion and slight veering. This threat will likely end at
some point in the second half of the night.

A dry cold front will shift winds to the west with gusts up to
25 kt possible through the afternoon Sunday. High pressure
moves winds back to the south Monday afternoon. A warm front may
bring some light precip late Monday night.

Some lingering restrictions are possible on Tuesday morning
before conditions improve as precipitation exits to the
northeast. A breezy southerly wind may gust to 20 to 25 knots
during the afternoon hours. A cold front sweeps through Tuesday
evening yielding a shift to westerly winds overnight. VFR
conditions are expected behind the front on Wednesday. Some rain
chances return late Wednesday into Christmas Day. This also
comes with a shift to south to southwesterly winds as a warm
front moves through.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds continue and increase through the evening. SCAs
are in effect for tonight for the Chesapeake. A lull is likely
in SCA conditions Sunday morning, but then a cold front will
cross and shift winds to the west and northwest. Have issued
advisories for all waters to capture this, with gusts mostly
20-25 kt, though there could be some to 30 kt. Advisories in NNW
flow likely continue into early Monday morning except on the
interior rivers.

Another transient area of high pressure will bring a brief
period of lighter winds on Monday, shifting to the south in the
afternoon. Advisories in southerly channeling may be needed by
the second half of Monday night.

The channeling effects likely persist into Tuesday morning and
afternoon which would warrant Small Craft Advisories. A cold
front tracks across the waters Tuesday evening/night which
could see a few gusts push to near 20 knots. High pressure
returns for Wednesday with sub-advisory winds expected.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB/ADS
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/CPB
MARINE...BRO/CPB