Orono, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

162
FXUS61 KCAR 161921
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
321 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
WPC has included northern areas in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms, some severe producing damaging winds, will
continue for the next hour or two mainly over Downeast areas.

2) Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, with locally heavy rain possible Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, some severe producing damaging
winds, will continue for the next hour or two mainly over
Downeast areas.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Main cold front located along the coast with temps dropping into
the 60s behind it. Secondary cold front located along the St.
Lawrence with dewpoints currently in the 30s. Ongoing
thunderstorms will shift south over the waters by evening. These
storms may still have the potential to produce damaging winds
as they exit the area this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will
be Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with locally heavy rain
possible Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The next chance for showers and storms is this weekend as low
pressure moves in from the Great Lakes. Thinking that since the
greatest forcing will arrive overnight, thunderstorms will be
more isolated although cannot rule out some thunder with
elevated instability Saturday night. PW values of 1.50+ inches,
which is > 90th percentile for this time of year. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible with any storm as storms train over the
same area. QPF amounts range from 0.80-1 inch from Katahdin to
Houlton north with 0.50-0.75 inches to the south. WPC has
included the northern areas in a marginal risk for flash
flooding mainly for Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z tonight...VFR most locations this afternoon, though may
see MVFR vsbys in -shra/-tsra at BGR in the next hour or two.  W
winds 5-15kts, gusting to 20-25kts.

Tonight...VFR. W winds 5-15kts.

Friday-Friday night...VFR. NW winds 5-15kts gusting to 20-25kts,
becoming light overnight.

Saturday...VFR early, then MVFR BHB, BGR and possibly HUL in -shra.
S winds 5-15kts.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR in locally heavy rainfall and storms. S
winds 10-20kts. LLWS possible.

Sunday-Sunday night...VFR/MVFR. NW winds 10-20kts gusting to 25kts,
then becoming W 5-10kts overnight.

Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. W winds 5-10kts, becoming S Tuesday
morning 5-15ts gusting to 20kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Thunderstorms approaching with wind gusts of 40 to 50 kts possible,
mainly over the intracoastal zone.

Otherwise, winds remain below SCA criteria with seas around 2-4
feet through Saturday afternoon.

Winds pick up out of the south Saturday evening and seas rise
to 5-8 feet by early Sunday morning, so SCAs are likely during
this timeframe. Cannot rule out gale force winds over waters
from 25-60NM Saturday night. Seas drop below 5ft by Sunday evening
and remain below small craft levels through Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT..
GOES-19 is slowly coming back online with the ABI now
operational. GLM will be returning shortly, along with systems
associated with space weather.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...21
AVIATION...21