Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

359
FXUS61 KCAR 130114
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
914 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 9 PM Minor update to wave height forecast based on current
  guidance

- 8 PM Update with the issuance of the 00z TAFs

- No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers Sunday into Monday morning. Rainfall will have
minimal impact on the drought.

2) Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern areas Monday
night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers Sunday into Monday morning. Rainfall
will have minimal impact on the drought.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure exits across the Maritimes tonight, while low
pressure begins to develop in the Mid-Atlantic region and a cold
front crosses Quebec Province. Clouds will increase early tonight,
with showers then approaching from the west late. The low will reach
the Gulf of Maine later Sunday, while the cold front approaches the
Saint Lawrence Valley. Models have been trending offshore with the
better upper level support and better precipitable water
values. Current indications are that the heavier rains should
remain across the waters of the Gulf of Maine, possibly clipping
Downeast areas. Other showers are possible across northern
areas in advance of the approaching cold front. Although
instability is limited, could also have isolated/scattered
thunderstorms across northern areas Sunday afternoon/evening.
The low exits across the Maritimes Sunday night, while the cold
front crosses the region and an upper trof approaches from the
west. Shower chances will persist across the region Sunday
night. The upper trof then crosses the region Monday keeping a
chance of mostly early showers. Rainfall with this system will
have minimal impact on the drought.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern
areas Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure will build across the region behind the cold
front Monday, bringing clear skies and light winds. This will
result in favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Low
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s across much of
northern Maine. Patchy/areas of frost are possible Monday night
across the Northern Areas but particularly in the normally
colder low lying locations.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late. South winds 5 to 10 kts.
Southwesterly low level wind shear possible across terminals
from KHUL and north.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, early, especially as rain
moves in. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, during the afternoon.
Scattered/numerous showers. Isolated/scattered afternoon
thunderstorms possible, mostly north. South winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR,
occasional IFR, late. Numerous/scattered showers north. An
evening thunderstorm also possible. Isolated/scattered showers
Downeast. South winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest/west.

Monday...MVFR early, improving to VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt
gusting to 25 kt.

Monday night-Wednesday...VFR. Light NW winds become S Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through
Sunday night. Showers and patchy fog Sunday into Sunday night.
All waters should experience sustained winds less than 15 kt,
gusts less than 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less through Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/SM/CN/MB
AVIATION...AES/SM/CN/MB