Bangor, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS61 KCAR 022359
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
659 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation section to reflect 0Z TAFs
- Increased precip chances slightly for the weak systems both
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds, blowing snow, and cold wind chills likely over
the weekend, with the possibility of significant snowfall.

2) Two shots at minor snow accumulation during the day both
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Gusty winds, blowing snow, and cold wind chills likely over
the weekend, with the possibility of significant snowfall.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Still substantial uncertainty for the weekend. The setup is
quite potent, with a strong upper level low diving southeast
through New England most likely a bit west of us and pinching
off into a cutoff upper low somewhere off the Northeast coast,
with bitterly cold rushing southeast along with it. Some models
have upper level heights near record minimums at levels such as
500mb off the Northeast coast. Translation, this is a very
volatile setup. As the upper level low pinches off, a surface
low could develop as well and rapidly strengthen. The problem is
that there is a ton of uncertainty as to where exactly this
pinching off of the upper low occurs as well as the
strengthening surface low.

We can say with fairly high confidence a few things, such as
that colder air will move in at least later Saturday into
Sunday, with wind chills likely at least 15 below or colder. We
can also say that winds will be pretty gusty from the
north/northwest later Saturday into Sunday, probably gusty
enough for at least some blowing snow but unlikely to be gusty
enough for damage. We can also say with confidence that at least
a little snow will fall in the Saturday/Saturday night period.

What we have less confidence in is snow totals. There is a
minority of model solutions that set things up just right to
where we get heavy snow coupled with strong winds. However, the
majority of models keep snow totals fairly minor and have a
better shot of heavier snow east of us toward the Canadian
Maritimes. How strong the winds are, the amount of blowing snow,
and just how cold the wind chills get are all dependent on the
track and strength of the system.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Two shots at minor snow accumulation during the day both
Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Two weak systems of interest, the first during the day Wednesday
and the second during the day Thursday. Both these system
involve fairly decent mid/upper level low pressure centers
moving southeast through the area. However, neither system has
much moisture to work with, associated surface low pressure will
be weak, and there is only slight cold air temperature
advection. All this being said, impacts will be minor for both
systems.

The first system on Wednesday features a weak surface low
developing somewhere near the Downeast coast in the morning.
Near this surface low will be the best chance of snow showers,
which could actually be locally heavy, as low/mid-level
instability and lapse rates are actually pretty impressive. The
problem is, there`s a lot of uncertainty still where these
heavier showers will be. They could stay just out over the
waters, could be along the Downeast coast, or could be as far
north as about Lincoln. Where these snow showers occur during
the day Wednesday, locally up to about 3 inches of fluffy snow
could fall. Elsewhere, there could still be a few snow showers
around Wednesday, but accumulations will be very minor if any.
Not much wind on Wednesday, so although snow showers could be
locally heavy, not expecting snow squalls as by definition they
require stronger wind.

The second system during the day Thursday appears to be less
discriminate on location, with the whole area having a chance of
snow showers. Any snow accumulation that does occur should be
an inch or less, and many places won`t get any. Like Wednesday,
wind doesn`t appear to be much of a factor with Thursday`s snow
showers, and like Wednesday, it will easily be cold enough for
snow as a precipitation type everywhere.

Made rather significant adjustments to the starting point
(National Blend of Models), raising PoPs/QPF, as it is going
much too dry which is its typical bias in minor snow events like
the ones Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tonight through Tuesday night...VFR is expected at all the
terminals. Light N to NW wind tonight, then light and variable
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Mix of MVFR/VFR. Snow showers possible, best chance
at BHB. NW wind 5 kts.

Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR. NW wind 5 kts.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR, with best chance of MVFR in the north. NW
wind 5-10 kts.

Thursday night and Friday...VFR/MVFR. WNW 5 kts becoming SSW

Friday Night and Saturday...Very low confidence, but potential
for IFR or worse late Friday night into Saturday with snow.
Variable winds 10 kts or less becoming NW potentially gusting
over 25 kts by late Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusts 25 to 30 kts will linger through this evening, prior to
winds diminishing overnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft will gradually
diminish as well, dropping below 5 ft late tonight. Conditions
remain below small craft advisory levels through Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Light freezing spray possible tonight.

Likelihood of small craft NW winds Wednesday night, coupled with
light freezing spray. Of more concern is Saturday afternoon to
Sunday, when gales appear a near certainty, with about a 50
percent chance of storms. Winds will be from the N/NW, and
freezing spray is likely to be moderate to heavy.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AES/TF
AVIATION...TF/TWD
MARINE...AES/TF