Radcliff, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

567
FXUS63 KLMK 161407
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
907 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Continued warming pattern expected through the middle of the week
  with highs warming into the 40s and 50s.

* Strong cold front plows through the region Thursday afternoon with
  widespread gusty showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.  Look
  for a quick temp drop behind the front with scattered snow showers
  late Thursday and into the day on Friday.

* Temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend and into next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Updated the sky grids to reflect the low stratus moving in over the
area this morning. ACAR and model soundings show a strong inversion
around and below 850mb helping with this low stratus. Expect this to
mix out later this afternoon but wanted to update our forecast grids
to better reflect the current and expected cloud cover this morning

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows a batch of low stratus moving
eastward out of eastern MO and southern IL into far western KY.
These clouds will move east into the I-65 corridor in the next
couple of hours.  Temperatures across the stated varied a bit with
mid-upper teens over the far NE/E sections with readings around
freezing in the west.  With the aforementioned batch of clouds
moving east, radiational cooling will cease and temperatures should
remain pretty steady through sunrise.

For today, will see ongoing batch of low clouds move east across the
region and then scour out.  Winds will shift to the southwest
through the day resulting in increased warm air advection.  We`ll
likely see a gradient of temperature for highs with low-mid 40s
across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky.  South of
the WK/BG Parkways, temperatures look to warm into the mid-upper 40s
though a few 50 degree readings will be possible down near the KY/TN
border.

For tonight/Wednesday, high clouds will increase across the region
ahead of a weak mid-level trough axis.  Low-level southwest flow
will continue and temperatures will be quite a bit warmer overnight
with lows mainly in the mid 30s.  Shortwave trough axis will move
across the region on Wednesday and may produce a few scattered
showers, mainly across southern Kentucky.  Within a broad southwest
flow pattern, temperatures will continue moderate with highs warming
into the upper 40s across southern Indiana and the northern half of
Kentucky.  Lower 50s look attainable in areas south of the Parkways.

Plentiful cloud cover and southwest winds will continue across the
region Wednesday night as a stronger trough axis moves in from the
west. Within the warm advection scheme, some light showers will be
possible in areas west of I-65.  Lows will continue to trend warmer
here with readings in the upper 30s out in the I-75 corridor with
upper 30s/lower 40s along and west of I-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Thursday through Friday Night...

Fairly strong upper level trough axis and associated surface cold
front will take aim at the region on Thursday. Ahead of the front, a
tightening pressure gradient will be seen and will result in
breezy/windy conditions across the area.  Widespread rain showers
are expected to develop in advance of the front which looks to come
into our western CWA by mid-late afternoon.  Wind gusts of 30-35 mph
will likely be common outside of convection.

Low-level moisture is expected to pool out ahead of the front with
low 50 dewpoints working as far north as the Ohio River.  Strong
ascent, likely attributed to frontal slab forcing along the frontal
interface may be strong enough to generate a thin line of
strong/severe convection.   Surface based instability continues to
look rather limited here, though some models do show a little bit of
elevated instability suggestive that we could see some
thunderstorms.  The overall setup here is your typical cold season
high shear-low CAPE (HSLC) one, given that low-level shear of 60-
65kts is forecast across the region.  Should significant convection
develop, the main threat here would be isolated damaging wind gusts
within the strongest convective cores. Highs on Thursday look to warm
into the lower-middle 50s across southern IN and the northern half
of Kentucky.  Upper 50s to near 60 degree readings will be possible
down along the KY/TN border.

After frontal passage Thursday evening, much colder air will filter
into the region.  The cold air may be able to catch some of the
departing precipitation resulting in precipitation ending as a
rain/snow mix.  Lapse rates will steepen behind the front and gusty
northwest winds are expected Thursday evening and into the
overnight.  The DGZ looks to dry out significantly so wintry
precipitation, while possible early in the overnight period will
likely quickly end during the overnight.  I still think there is a
low-risk of wintry impacts Friday morning due to the expected
temperature drop into the lower 20s by sunrise.  Any residual
moisture on roadway could lead to some slick spots.  However, the
overall threat appears to be limited as winds overnight are expected
to stay up and help dry things out.

Broad northwest flow will be seen across the region on Friday with
perhaps a few scattered snow showers possible in the east during the
morning hours, but that activity should diminish rather quickly by
mid-morning.  Cold advection will keep temperatures down int eh
lower 30s across southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky.
Further south, highs may warm into the mid-upper 30s.  Lows Friday
night will drop into the lower-mid 20s.

Saturday through Tuesday...

With the lack of downstream blocking, the upper trough axis will
quickly move off to the east with an increasing zonal flow pattern
setting up for the weekend.  Saturday`s temperatures look to rebound
into the low-mid 50s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 30s.  A
weak perturbation will move through the region Saturday night and
could squeeze out a few light rain showers.  Highs Sunday will be
slightly cooler with readings int he mid-upper 40s over southern IN
and northern KY, with lower-mid 50s across southern KY.

Moving into next week, ridging is expected to build across the four
corners region with a continued northwest flow across the Great
Lakes into New England.  With high pressure moving off the Mid-
Atlantic, we`ll get back into a broad southwest flow/warm advective
type pattern ahead of a weak frontal system that looks to move
through late Mon/Tues.  Forcing here is weak, but cloudy skies and
some light rain showers are looking more likely in the Mon/Tue time
frame.  Highs Monday will range from the lower-mid 40s over southern
IN/northern KY with low-mid 50s over southern KY. Highs Tuesday look
to warm into the low 50s over southern IN/northern KY with mid-upper
50s over southern KY.

Extended Forecast Discussion...

Since our last extended forecast discussion prior to Thanksgiving,
we were quite bullish in a colder pattern setting up after
Thanksgiving and leading into December as we expected the MJO to
orbit out of phase 6 and into phase 7/8.  This did verify quite well
and the temp departures for December to date rack up there with
December of 1989 and December 2013.  We expected this colder pattern
to persist into the holidays based on the expected MJO forcing.
However, the overall hemispheric pattern broke down a bit in the
last few weeks which is going to lead to that cold forecast into the
Holidays to bust.  So what happened?  Well, first we had quite the
flare up in Indian Ocean convection last week. This was a result of
a westward moving Kelvin wave moving out of the Pacific.  This
feature essentially muted the MJO phase 7/8 forcing and the MJO RMM
plots went into the neutral zone.  Teleconnection patterns also
didn`t verify all that well as we had a +AO/+NAO on the Atlantic
side and a bouncy EPO/-PNA on the Pacific side.  This has allowed
the cold pattern to relax a bit and a milder pattern is expected
across much of the CONUS over the next week.

However, this break in the cold is likely not to last as 200mb
velocity plots show a decent Rossby/Kelvin wave pushing into the
Atlantic next week.  The global models are picking up on this
showing a stronger jet developing across the Atlantic with stronger
Blocking developing over eastern Europe.  Model progs show this
blocking retrograding westward with time setting up the potential
for the NAO to trend more negative as we head into late December.
Additionally, the AO, while positive now is expected to grow
increasingly negative as we round out the year and we`re also seeing
growing model consensus on stronger blocking developing into AK.
Should this be the case, the general pattern looks to reload and we
should see a colder pattern return toward the end of December and
into early January.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Batch of low level stratus has persisted overnight and has moved
into HNB/BWG and will move into SDF in the next hour.  This stratus
should continue eastward and move into LEX/RGA later this morning.
Cigs are running around FL024-025 or so.  Winds this morning will
remain out of the southwest.  For this afternoon, expect some
improvement with cigs going back to VFR by mid-late afternoon.
However, high cirrus will stream across the region overnight, though
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...MJ