Wichita, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS63 KICT 162330
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
630 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms across eastern Kansas this afternoon and
  evening. A strong storm or two producing small hail, gusty
  winds, and brief heavy rainfall.

- Warming trend through early next week. Heat indices between
  105 to 110 across southern and southeast Kansas possible
  Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

     THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

A typical, tropical-like, summertime airmass remains in place across
eastern Kansas today. The primary PWAT axis is draped from south-
central Missouri to the Flint Hills. With little to no capping
across this area, pop-up showers and storms are anticipated.
However, poor lapse rates and essentially little to no flow will
significantly limit storm intensity. Still, a strong storm or two
producing small hail, gusty downburst winds, and brief heavy
rainfall cannot be ruled out. With the loss of diurnal heating
around sunset, rain chances along and east of the Flint Hills should
gradually decrease. Quiet, mild, and humid conditions are expected
tonight with lows generally in the low 70s.

An additional slug of moisture will slosh into southeast Kansas late
Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Similar to today, despite poor
lapse rates and weak flow aloft, ample low-level moisture (with
PWATs over 2 inches) and little to no capping should support at
least isolated showers and storms across southeast Kansas during the
afternoon and evening. Coverage in showers and storms should
decrease with the loss of diurnal heating after sunset. Again,
similar to today, despite the overall environment significantly
limiting storm intensity, a strong storm or two producing small
hail, gusty downburst winds, and brief heavy rainfall cannot be
ruled out.

     THIS WEEKEND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...

With the weakening of the upper low over western Texas, the long
wave ridge overspreading much of the central CONUS will strengthen
and serve as the primary driver for a warming trend this weekend and
into the beginning of next week. Both the deterministic and ensemble
global guidance shows the strength of this mid/upper ridge will
likely occur on Monday and Tuesday. Probabilities showing max
temperatures at or over 100 degrees across the forecast area from
ensemble guidance are around 70-95%, and probabilities of max
temperatures above 110 is around 10-40%. Needless to say, regardless
of the eventual highs both Monday and Tuesday, the signal from mid-
to-long range guidance is hot!

A back door cold front on Wednesday will knock temperatures down a
bit, then guidance begins to deviate thereafter. Some of the long
range guidance, like the GFS/GEFS, shows the potential for some
active weather. Meanwhile, the ECMWF/EPS shows a scenario where the
upper ridge builds in across the area, and much warmer temperatures
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Main aviation concern will once again be shower and storm
chances.

Scattered showers and storms continue across mainly central and
eastern KS early this evening and will continue for another hour
or two. KCNU-KSLN-KRSL will be the sites most likely affected.
Just like last evening, they should dissipate near or after
sunset. We may see a repeat on Fri, but with slightly less
coverage. For now will just mention VCSH at KCNU and leave
showers/storms out at remaining sites. Winds will remain out of
the southeast tonight and come around to the southwest by late
Fri morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL