Wichita, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

078
FXUS63 KICT 130502
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1202 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are possible this afternoon through late tonight with
  the strongest storms capable of producing golfball size hail
  and damaging wind gusts.

- Well above normal temperatures will continue into early next
  week with heat indices near 100. Slightly cooler temperatures
  are forecast to return late week.

- Periodic shower and storm chances will be possible late Monday
  night through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

An upper shortwave trough is currently sliding across the Central
Plains with an additional shortwave over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Upper troughing remains over Canada with zonal flow aloft
over the Northern Plains. A deeper upper trough is developing off
the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front is
draped across portions of central KS then continues to curve
down into the Texas Panhandle. An outflow boundary has moved
through northern Oklahoma into central Oklahoma. There are
ongoing storms in southern Nebraska and portions of northeast
Kansas due to 700mb WAA. Activity continues to develop in far
southeast Kansas and push east/southeast.

For later this afternoon, storms are expected to develop in the
eastern portion of the Oklahoma Panhandle where the outflow boundary
meets the cold front. These storms are anticipated to move
east/northeast into southern Kansas as we move into this evening
affecting portions of south-central and southeast Kansas late this
evening into tonight. Severe storms are likely with this activity as
instability in this area is progged to be greater than 2500 J/kg
with 35-40 kts of effective shear. This combined with steep mid-
level lapse rates could be capable of producing golfball size hail
with the strongest storms. Damaging wind gusts around 60 mph are
also possible given DCAPE values greater than 1300 J/kg. Additional
storm development is expected across the area tonight as the LLJ
ramps up coupled with mid-level WAA. There is still uncertainty with
exact location for storms but recent guidance suggests scattered
chances will be possible across much of eastern Kansas during the
overnight hours into early Sunday morning. Showers and storms are
expected to continue to move east Sunday morning with chances
starting to diminish late Sunday morning.

For Sunday afternoon, mostly dry conditions are forecast with cloud
cover dissipating. Recent model guidance suggests the frontal
boundary lifting north as a warm front, returning southerly flow to
our area. Above normal 850mb temperatures are progged especially
across southern Kansas, leading to another day of above normal
temperatures. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s
with portions of south-central Kansas in the upper 90s. Heat indices
will be near 100 especially in southern Kansas Sunday afternoon to
early evening. Hot conditions will continue into Monday across the
whole area as well above normal 850mb temperatures continue. High
temperatures will be in the upper 90s to potentially the low 100s
with heat indices following suit. Guidance remains consistent with
an upper trough propagating towards the Northern Plains by Monday
afternoon. This will increase the pressure gradient in the northern
and central Plains, resulting in breezy southerly winds in Kansas
Monday afternoon.

For late Monday night to early Tuesday morning, the aforementioned
upper trough will continue to track east, pushing a cold front down
through Nebraska into northern Kansas. Storms are likely to develop
along it increasing rain chances late Monday night. The front looks
to stall out across central KS Tuesday afternoon resulting in a
spread of temperatures. Highs are currently forecast to range from
70s in far northern KS to the upper 90s in southern Kansas.
Additional rainfall chances will be possible through much of the
week as embedded weak perturbations continue to slide across the
region. Highs for Wednesday have trended warmer than previously
thought with highs ranging from the 80s in central KS to the mid 90s
in southern KS. Slightly cooler temperatures are progged to arrive
for Thursday and Friday with highs mainly in the 80s across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to
develop and move slowly eastward across the region overnight.
Thunderstorms could affect a few TAF sites across central and
southeast Kansas through the overnight hours. Low clouds in IFR
category look to develop over central Kansas around daybreak and
will linger through the morning hours. Conditions will improve
with winds remaining from the east and southeast across the
area on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds could
support very high fire danger west of I-135 Monday afternoon.
Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts
around 40-45 mph. That being said, antecedent rainfall and
dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire weather concerns
somewhat.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...JC