Manhattan, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

744
FXUS63 KTOP 060823
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper embedded trough passes to our north this evening,
  bringing increased clouds and mostly scattered light rain
  showers north of I-70.

- After more mild temps return in the 70s after Tuesday, pattern becomes
  more active Thursday - Sunday with occasional showers and
  thunderstorms anticipated throughout the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Quiet and mild conditions this afternoon as a cold front currently
near the KS/NE border slows as it shifts southward, bisecting the
CWA by late afternoon. Northeast winds increase along/north of the
boundary from 15-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Mid clouds increase this
afternoon as an embedded upper trough rounds the ridge to the west
before tracking southeast through eastern NE and northern MO
tonight.  Latest short term guidance is consistent with the narrow
band of forcing staying north coupled with the lack of deep moisture
in northeast Kansas.  Have therefore reduced pops for much of the
area, confined mostly to the highway 36 corridor.  Temp profiles aft
06Z Tuesday suggest the possibility for brief light snow to mix in,
however no accumulations or impacts expected.

Upper pattern shifts as the ridge breaks down, allowing for several
waves to traverse the plains from Wednesday into the weekend.
Initial time period to highlight is Wednesday evening into Thursday
as a cold front enters the region. Ensemble spread is high due to
timing of the wave with the front and degree of moisture available.
Spread of QPF in the 25th-75th percentile is in upwards of an inch
with overall low confidence on the location of the likely pops in
the forecast.

While a washout is not anticipated for the weekend, the stalled
front nearby coupled with several perturbations arriving upstream
of a southern stream closed low warrants modest pops for the
enhanced isentropic lift. Pwat values are not well above climo
values for this time of year to suggest a elevated risk for flooding
or heavy rainfall. Nevertheless, locally heavy rainfall is possible
for portions of the region by the weekend.  Overall severe threat is
low, but could see a few stronger storms during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR at sites this forecast period, focusing on a fropa aft 14Z
that will veer winds to the northeast at 10-15 kts. The front
slows by mid afternoon, as mid clouds spread southward. VFR
cigs below 10 kft are possible aft 00Z with some uncertainty in
coverage to warrant TAF mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22