Lawrence, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

839
FXUS63 KTOP 041746
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1246 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop tonight after sunset.
A few severe storms possible (30%), with large hail and damaging
winds the main hazards.

- Much cooler tomorrow and Wednesday behind cold front, with
occasional periods of rain.

- Gradually warming up again towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Broad confluent flow evident on water vapor imagery this afternoon,
with one deep upper low dropping southeast over the Northern Plains
while another spins just offshore California. The northern stream
low is beginning to push a cold front southward through the area. As
that occurs this evening, isentropic ascent will increase along and
north of the boundary, allowing scattered thunderstorms to develop
within the unstable airmass. Forecast soundings indicate storms will
likely be a bit high-based and elevated, but in an environment of
moderate CAPE (1500-2000 J/kg), moderate effective shear (~35 kts),
and very steep mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km). So large hail
potentially up to golf ball size looks to be the main hazard with
any initially developing storm, followed by some damaging wind
potential as updrafts become more numerous just along/behind the
front.

Much cooler air will filter in behind the front overnight. With the
southern stream upper low still well to our southwest, we`ll see a
longer period of continued isentropic ascent atop the chilly
airmass. So off and on rain chances look to continue throughout the
day Tuesday and into Wednesday. Particularly if low clouds can
linger throughout the day, this will keep temperatures down, with
highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The main trough axis looks to pass off to our east by Thursday,
bringing in drier and sunnier conditions. This should help us begin
another warming trend into the weekend ahead of our next upper
trough. Details with this system are fuzzy 5-6 days out, but in
generally expect another increase in rain chances as it approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions will continue this
afternoon and into the evening. Around 02-04 UTC a cold front will
begin to push south through the main TAF sites, shifting winds to
the northeast. A few scattered thunderstorms are also likely to
develop along the front, most likely in the 03-08 UTC timeframe.
Ceilings stay generally VFR, though can`t rule out some lower
ceilings late in the period as rain chances begin to increase again.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese