Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

680
FXUS63 KICT 021805
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1205 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patch freezing fog possible this morning, localized impacts
  including a few slick spots possible.

- Above normal temperatures through much of the forecast period.

- Slight chance of a few snow flurries/freezing drizzle late
  Tue/early Wed with a subtle cooldown on Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Currently, the upper-level ridge axis is aligned over the Rockies
with the trough lifting off the East Coast. Northwesterly flow
overhead helped warm temperatures yesterday afternoon and many saw
significant snow melt. This has lead to a shallow layer of moist air
right at the surface and as temperatures fall to meet the dewpoint
this morning, we could see patchy freezing fog develop across
the region. Guidance remains lackluster regarding major impacts
with the HREF giving 30-40% probabilities of visibility under 2
miles. Some localized impacts are expected, but conditions will
begin to improve by mid-morning as temperatures quickly warm.

For the rest of today through mid week, a much more mild pattern is
on tap with upper-level ridging attempting to build in over the
central part of the country. The warming trend will continue,
however lingering snowpack will greatly impact temperatures along
and east of I-135 for the next day or two. High temperatures today
will reach into the 40s to around 50 degrees in central Kansas.
Later today, a weak clipper system will begin to dive into the
Northern Plains dragging with it an associated surface cold front
that will push through the area on Tuesday. High temperatures on
Tuesday will not be markedly cooler, though we will begin to see
some cooler air nudge into northeastern Kansas. On Tuesday
Night/Wednesday morning, light freezing drizzle or snow flurries are
possible in our central Kansas counties. Minimal impacts are
expected at this time with only trace accumulations expected which
could lead to a few slick spots for the commute Wednesday morning.
This activity will quickly diminish and shift east as the dry, post-
frontal air filters into the area on Wednesday morning. The weak
trough will then swing across the Plains on Wednesday, settling the
cooler air over the region. Highs on Wednesday will top out near
normal in the lower to middle 40s.

For Thursday and Friday, ridging will finally succeed in building
over the region and we will see above normal temperatures across the
entire forecast area with widespread 50s to close to 60 degrees for
western and southern portions of the forecast area. A weak back-door
cold front looks to swing through the area on Saturday as a trough
digs across the Great Lakes Region, acting to suppress the warming
trend. Temperatures for the weekend will remain above average, but
will top out in the lower to middle 50s. No precipitation is
expected with this weak passing system, and only a few clouds are
anticipated for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Similar to last night and early this morning, thinking model
output is overdoing fog potential tonight and early Tuesday, so
did not include in the 18z routine TAFs. Otherwise, a weak cold
front will pass south through the region this evening and
tonight, with modest northerly winds. Additionally, cold
advection may support some MVFR clouds over mainly eastern
Kansas by Tuesday morning, impacting mainly the CNU TAF site.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...ADK