Burlington, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

624
FXUS63 KDVN 061841
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
141 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The trend continues with generally fair weather and
  temperatures above normal rest of this week and through the
  weekend with little to no precipitation expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Tonight...Upstream sfc trof/front seen extending from the
northwestern GRT LKS into the west central plains, will continue to
sag rather slowly through the area tonight into Wed morning. Dry
airmass in place and no moisture feed seen on water vapor imagery
should make for a dry FROPA. Slowness of the front will make most of
the night pre-frontal like and low temps should not dip much below
the low to mid 50s...the south may even stay upper 50s. One thing to
keep in mind is that several CAMs want to break out at least patchy
fog in the light convergent sfc flow in the vicinity of the boundary
north of I-80 late tonight. With the ongoing boundary layer drying
of the past several days, this process is uncertain and will keep
out mention in the grids for now.

Wednesday...After walking out the boundary in the morning, in comes
a round of high pressure out of the northern plains. With not much
of a cooler air mass advecting in, dry sfc DPTs and light sfc wind
regime, this airmass and lingering mild thicknesses should warm up
nicely in full insolation and will side with the the warmer of
guidance with high temps in the mid 70s to around 80. As for Wed
night, undercut the NBM by a degree or two but that may still not be
enough with incoming ridge and lingering light sfc wind/low DPT
regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Thursday and Friday...The latest suite of models generally agree on
a not quite as mild a day on Thursday with a 1020+ MB sfc ridge
sliding acrs the area from the northwest and highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Several solutions continue to suggest that as the LLVL
ridge departs off to the east, an embedded short wave in steering
northwesterly flow aloft will combine with an increasing LLJ with
some THTA-e advection to produce an elevated wing of convergent WAA
type showers and even some embedded thunder acrs portions of the MO
RVR Valley and into central IA Thu night into Friday morning. The
models are still varying on the placement and how far north or south
this wing develops, and how far east it can make it through Friday
morning battling lingering ridging acrs the southern GRT LKS/OH RVR
Valley. The consensus is that some showers and mid deck of clouds
will get into the local area from the west Friday if even in a
decaying fashion. But they also show ongoing convergent LLJ
processes enough to keep some showers festering acrs the area for
much of the day until lifting off to the north and east Friday
evening. The latest ECMWF runs continue to suggest the Friday
activity will occur north of I-80 or even Hwy 30. Of course more
expected cloud cover and possible precip will keep temps down a bit
Friday despite an increasing southeast to southerly return flow.

Saturday and Sunday...Digging longer wave upper trof acrs the
Pacific Northwest and ridging amplifying up the GRT LKS will result
in warming southwesterlies acrs the MID CONUS and toward the GRT
LKS. Saturday will be a full blown warm sector day with breezy
southerly winds and increasing thicknesses that support highs in
the 80s for much of the area. This may be a day of increased
cropland fire danger risk depending on humidity trends. Then eyes
turn to the tropical system in the Gulf and the path it may take
getting drawn northward inland. How close this system can make it to
the local area from late Sunday and into early next week is still
very much in question. But definitely something to watch, as the
local area sure does not need the precip off such a system.

Monday and Tuesday...Depending on what or how the above system
behaves, early next week otherwise may be characterized by warm upper
ridging and continued above normal temp regime.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Generally a VFR TAF cycle around a slow moving dry frontal
passage through the area tonight and into Wednesday morning. The
main thing will be the southwesterly gusty sfc winds this
afternoon decreasing and starting to veer to the west this
evening and into Wednesday morning. One thing maybe to watch
for is that several CAMs are generating at least patchy fog
along the light and variable convergent sfc winds along the slow
moving front late tonight and into Wed morning. This would be
mainly north of I-80, and with the drying during the daytime, it
makes for low confidence in occurring. But may still touch upon
it at DBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12