Haiku-Pauwela, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

167
FXHW60 PHFO 021359
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
359 AM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will march eastward down the island chain from later
this afternoon onward, finally stalling out and diminishing near
the Big Island by Tuesday afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly
winds will strengthen into the breezy to strong range with higher
gusts through tonight. Northwesterly winds with cool and dry
conditions will follow behind the frontal passage. A stronger
weather system may produce more significant weather impacts across
from late Friday onward with the potential for periods of heavy
rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This mornings infrared satellite imagery over the Central Pacific
basin shows bands of clouds riding into each island in the
southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front roughly
200 miles northwest of Kauai at this hour. Strong and gusty south
to southwest winds will increase to Wind Advisory levels across
all Hawaiian Island today with wind gusts up to 50 mph possible in
wind favored locations. The strongest wind gusts will favor
mountain ranges and areas north and east of island terrain
features. Surface wind speeds continue to trend upward this
morning with the highest winds already reaching the 20 to 30 MPH
range in some areas with gusts near 40 MPH. A Wind Advisory was
issued this morning to cover these stronger wind threats. Even
stronger winds will blow across the highest summits on the Big
Island, strengthening to warning levels later this afternoon. A
High Wind Warning was issued for the Big Island summits of Mauna
Kea and Mauna Loa lasting into Wednesday. Expect these stronger
winds to decrease below advisory thresholds as weaker northwesterly
winds blow in after the front passes through each island.

The cold front continues to quickly approach the Hawaiian Islands
from the northwest direction this morning, the front will swiftly
march eastward down the island chain through Tuesday. The highest
rainfall amounts will develop over a four to six hour time period
along the main frontal cloud band as it passes through each
island. Based on all available data, the front will move into
Niihau and Kauai around noon, reaching Oahu by mid afternoon, then
onward to Molokai and Lanai in the evening hours, into Maui
around midnight, and finally the remnants of the frontal band with
significantly less shower activity will reach the Big Island on
Tuesday morning. Expect cooler and drier northwesterly winds to
develop after frontal passage. This drier air will keep cooler
overnight to early morning temperatures in the 60`s as the
atmosphere will more efficiently radiate heat into outer space
each night.

Lighter winds return to the region from Tuesday night into
Thursday as a weak high pressure system just north of the state
drifts slowly eastward. Light to moderate southwest winds will
develop from Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next even
stronger cold front approaching Hawaii from the northwest
direction. This next front appears to stall out near Kauai and
Oahu from Saturday night to Sunday, as the cold pool aloft
transforms into a cut off low near the islands.

There remains a tremendous amount of uncertainty on the impacts
with this next cut off low setting up near the islands this
weekend. On one hand, the front stalls out earlier over the
western islands and remains less progressive than what was
forecast just 24 hours ago. This upper low has the potential to
produce periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms with potential for
flood threats to portions of the state from Saturday through
Monday. However, the recent 24 hour trends in the operational and
ensemble models are driving the track of this low farther east
over time. Any significant impacts with this system are highly
dependent upon where the low sets up relative to each island. As
of this moment, we are closely watching this system evolve as the
time period grows shorter for changes in track and intensity. For
now, the latest forecast guidance suggests that the most intense
part of this storm will remain just west of the state; limiting
potential impacts. The best chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms
remains over the western islands of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu this
weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy and gusty southwesterly winds will affect the islands today
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. In advance of the
front, scattered showers will bring MVFR cigs/vsbys to south and
west facing slopes and coasts at times, while mainly VFR
conditions prevail elsewhere. The front will move into Kauai late
this afternoon, then shift rapidly down the island chain tonight,
nearing the Big Island around daybreak Tuesday. A band of gusty
showers will accompany the front, with MVFR cigs and/or vsbys
affecting many of the TAF sites as the front moves through. Winds
will shift northwesterly at moderate to locally breezy levels
behind the front with conditions improving from northwest to
southeast down the island chain as drier more stable air moves in.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across
portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, and Maui. Conditions will
likely improve in most areas later this morning, but may redevelop
later this afternoon on Kauai.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence
over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will
likely remain in place through late this evening.

&&

.MARINE...

A strong front has entered the far northwest offshore waters and
will move through the state later this afternoon through Tuesday.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been expanded to all waters due
to increasing southwesterly wind speeds as the front approaches
the state today. The front will swiftly move through Kauai late
this afternoon and evening with moderate to strong northwesterly
winds filling in behind. The front will weaken and winds will
gradually ease to moderate to fresh speeds as the front progresses
through the eastern half of the island chain overnight through
Tuesday. Winds will shift out of the east on Wednesday as a weak
high quickly moves from west to east over the state. Light to
gentle southerly winds will return Thursday as another front
approaches the state from the northwest. Southerly winds will
gradually strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds Friday ahead of
the next front with moderate to locally strong northerly winds
filling in behind the front as the front moves southeast over the
state Friday into the weekend.

The current west-northwest swell will continue to decline through
today with surf heights dropping below average. Forerunners of an
extra large northwest swell (310 to 325 degrees) have reached the
offshore buoy 51001 and should trickle in locally through the day.
In addition there is another moderate, short to medium period
northwest swell overlapping that will provide a slight bump in
surf along north and west facing shores this afternoon. Surf
heights will then rapidly build this evening and peak Tuesday well
above High Surf Warning levels along most north and west facing
shores as the extra large northwest swell builds in. Overlapping
pulses will keep surf elevated through Wednesday before subsiding
below High Surf Advisory levels Thursday night into Friday. This
swell will also push combined seas well above the 10 foot SCA
threshold in many areas. Another extra large swell is possible
late Friday and Saturday.

Rough choppy surf along south facing shores will hold through
today as southerly winds remain strong ahead of the front. Surf
along east facing shores will remain tiny through much of the week
due to lack of strong trades near and upstream of the state. An
increase surf is possible along east shores this weekend.

A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect until noon today, as
peak monthly tides coincide with higher than predicted ocean
levels. Expect minor flooding of low-lying coastal infrastructure
as well as some some beach erosion during the peak high tide
through the morning hours.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian Islands.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island
Summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian
waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...Almanza