Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

502
FXUS62 KTBW 030140
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
840 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously cold conditions tonight into early Tuesday morning.

- Hazardous marine conditions return late Wednesday night through
  Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Another cold night on tap as surface high pressure drifts east
across the Florida peninsula. Winds will be light overnight with
just a few high clouds streaming across the area. Therefore,
expect another night with freezing temperatures across the Nature
Coast south through inland parts of central and southwest Florida.
The surface high will move east out into the Atlantic Ocean
Tuesday with a more easterly flow developing allowing temperatures
to rebound quickly after sunrise. Temperatures will climb into
the upper 50s to mid 60s Tuesday afternoon, but this is still
about 10 degrees below normal. Overall the current forecast looks
on track and only made some slight adjustments to lower minimum
temperatures tonight a couple of degrees in some inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 840 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with light north to northeast winds
tonight becoming easterly 5 to 10 knots Tuesday morning. Winds
will shift to west to northwest as the sea breeze moves inland
during the afternoon at TPA, PIE, and SRQ.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

High pressure over the Gulf will start to drift overhead overnight.
This will bring us light winds and clear skies setting us up for a
radiational cooling night. This will help us dip to around
freezing once again Tuesday morning but should be warmer then the
last two nights. We will also see RHs overnight in the 70`s and
80`s. This along with the light winds and temperature below 35
degrees will bring perfect conditions for widespread frost
overnight.

High pressure will drift off in the Atlantic as ridging remains
overhead for Tuesday allowing for  warm up with highs finally
getting into the 60`s by the afternoon hours. By Wednesday another
significant cold front will start to push through the southeast.
This will cause some warmer air to advect over the area with
highs in the 70`s during Wednesday afternoon. This warm up wont
last long as the cold front start to push through overnight on
Wednesday bringing some showers with it. Behind it we will see
colder air filtering in once again in the afternoon keeping
temperatures in the upper 50`s to low 60`s.

The cold air filtering in won`t be historical like last weekend but
we will still see temperatures in the 30`s for everyone by Friday
morning with highs in the 60`s. High pressure will settle into the
Gulf for next weekend with highs in the 70`s and lows in the 40`s
both days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Winds will continue to slowly dissipate throughout the day and
into the overnight hours. By tomorrow winds will be out of the
east around 5 to 10 mph. These winds will shift to the south on
Wednesday ahead of our next cold front that will push through
Wednesday night. Winds will shift quickly to the northwest behind
the front with speeds between 20 to 25 knots with a small craft
advisory likely. These winds will stay high overnight before
slowly calming down to 10 to 15 knots by Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

RH`s will go up slightly for tomorrow afternoon but critical
RHs will still hang around. Winds will remain light so no red flag
warnings will be needed. As temperatures start to slowly warm
Wednesday and Thursday RH`s will get above critical levels with
showers possible Wednesday night with the next cold front.
Critical RHs for inland areas will be possible again Friday
afternoon but winds will stay below critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  38  65  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  34  69  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  34  65  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  34  65  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  26  65  34  72 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  45  64  51  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland
     Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-
     Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland
     Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle