Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

132
FXUS62 KTBW 061252
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
852 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A cold front currently draped over the panhandle will continue to
slowly move southeast over the area today before stalling over south
Florida Tuesday. Deep moisture will accompany the front as it
lingers, increasing rain chances through most of the week,
especially for central FL and the East Coast. WPC has placed inland
portions of the forecast area in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for
excessive rainfall. The risk highlights the potential for heavy
downpours that could lead to localized flooding. Along with
increased rain chances, cooler temperatures will also be expected.
High temperatures are expected to drop a couple degrees below normal
for a few days to start the week, with some areas staying in the 70s
through Thursday.

As the cold front stalls over south Florida, a high pressure system
to the north will lead to the pressure gradient tightening up over
the FL peninsula midweek. This will lead to strong, gusty northeast
wind. The gradient will ease up as the weekend approaches. Rain
chances begin to diminish into the weekend as well as dry air moves
over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 846 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A stalled out front will make for some messy weather over the
state through the TAF period. Best chance of storms this afternoon
and evening will be inland and across SW Florida however they will
be possible at all terminals. Models continue to show a batch of
MVFR and IFR CIGS and showers pushing through during the early
morning hours on Tuesday. Outside of thunderstorms winds will
generally stay below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as the week goes
on as a cold front moves over the area and lingers for a few days.
Between this cold front stalling out to the south and a high
pressure system over the NE, a tight pressure gradient will lead
to advisory level, if not Gale force, winds over the water
beginning Tuesday and persisting through Thursday. Showers and
storms will also be possible over the waters to today and
tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Ample moisture will linger over the area through the week as a cold
front moves over the area and stalls out over south Florida. Gusty
winds will lead to high dispersion values throughout the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  65  75  66 /  40  70  60  20
FMY  86  67  81  66 /  50  60  70  30
GIF  85  65  75  65 /  80  70  70  30
SRQ  85  66  78  65 /  40  70  60  30
BKV  86  59  74  60 /  50  70  60  20
SPG  85  68  78  68 /  40  70  60  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday
     for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis