Orlando, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

503
FXUS62 KMLB 061045
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
645 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Excessive Rain Threat This Week: Multiple rounds of rain and
  storms are expected through Thursday, especially along the
  coast where totals of 2-4" are forecast. Localized higher
  amounts may lead to flash flooding in urban and poorly-drained
  areas.

- Strong Wind Gusts Beginning Tuesday: Persistent northeast winds
  will gust from 25-35 mph starting Tuesday. There is a 20-40%
  chance of peak wind gusts exceeding 45 mph on Tuesday and
  Wednesday. These winds may cause a few power outages; secure
  all lightweight outdoor items.

- Dangerous Surf & Boating Impacts: Large breaking waves building
  to 8-12 feet at Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches Tuesday
  through Thursday, with higher waves offshore. Expect minor to
  moderate beach erosion around high tide and numerous life-
  threatening rip currents. Entering the ocean is strongly
  discouraged this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

During the work week, the pattern evolution favors multiple weather
hazards affecting Central Florida. Early this morning, a broad
mid-level trough over the Northeast U.S. has sent a cold front into
the Deep South. Above-normal total moisture exists ahead of the
boundary, with a ribbon of PWs exceeding 175% of normal situated
over the Florida Panhandle. Strong continental high pressure is
nudging into the Northern Plains behind a clipper-type disturbance.
Split flow is evident across the West; a branch of the subtropical
jet is currently entering the Rio Grande Valley.

The 05/12Z grand ensemble is in relatively good agreement with the
interplay of these features over Florida during the next 24-48
hours. The cold front is projected to decelerate as it enters
the Florida peninsula early this week, leaving plentiful moisture
over the southern two-thirds of the state. This will occur as the
1035+ mb high migrates into the Eastern Great Lakes by late Tuesday.

Synoptic ascent will increase as the subtropical jet streak ejects
into the Gulf, placing Florida in its left-front quadrant beginning
Tuesday. At the same time, the state will feel diffluence from
the right-rear quadrant of the polar jet stream along the Eastern
Seaboard. Consequently, most of the global guidance sharpens the
surface trough over Central FL on Tuesday. A mesoscale low could
also form on the boundary. This will substantially tighten the
pressure and height gradients, with some members increasing
northeasterly 3 kft (H925) winds to over 50 kt late Tuesday. These
values hold at 30-40 kt through at least Wednesday night.

By Thursday, a secondary disturbance in the subtropical jet may
pass overhead. The surface trough is forecast to settle into the
Florida Straits, with brisk onshore flow persisting. Anomalous
moisture should remain in place, interacting with frictional
convergence along the coast, particularly at night/early morning.

As ridging begins to overtake the Eastern U.S., this unsettled
weather pattern is then expected to loosen its grip on Florida late
in the week. About 60% of members prefer a quicker transition out
of this pattern starting on Friday, with the remainder showing
a lingering weakness at H5 through Saturday. There is strong
agreement that the H5 ridge will assert itself over Florida late
in the weekend, allowing a warming and drying trend to commence.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Through Thursday...

Excessive Rainfall Impact:

Unsettled weather gets underway today as a cold front settles into
the northern half of the district. After a mainly quiet morning,
showers and storms should develop after lunchtime on the east
coast sea breeze. At the same time, hi-res guidance continues
to develop convection near the stalled front along the I-4
corridor, persisting until the sea breeze collision occurs south
of Orlando. Proximity soundings show an uncapped troposphere with
sufficient instability and relatively slow storm motions. Much
of the area is in a Marginal excessive rainfall risk, and the WPC
Urban Rain Rate Dashboard for Greater Orlando shows a 40% chance
of 3"+ of rain falling somewhere in the metro area this afternoon
and evening. Southwesterly mid-level flow may steer these storms
back toward the east coast late in the evening.

Along the coast starting Monday night and into Tuesday, jet
dynamics become increasingly favorable for heavy rain and localized
flooding. Early-arriving convective guidance depicts this quite
well, with slow-moving rain bands developing near the stalled
surface trough axis somewhere between St Augustine and Melbourne.
Statistical guidance suggests that between Monday night and
Tuesday, 1-3" should be expected along the I-95 corridor, with a
5-10% chance of 5" or more.

There may be a bit of a lull in the heavy rain on Wednesday, but
another disturbance arriving Wednesday night through Thursday is
likely to enhance these rainbands along the coast once again. From
Wednesday through Friday, an additional 1-2" is most likely on
the coast, with a 10% chance of exceeding 3-4".

All told through daybreak Friday, most likely tallies are between
1-3" over the interior and 2-4" along the coast, with localized
5-7"+ amounts. If this rain falls in a short timeframe, flash
flooding could occur despite the ongoing drought, especially in
urban areas. Hopefully it is spread over much of the week which
would be beneficial to the drought.

Wind & Coastal Impacts:

Winds ramp up in the tightening pressure gradient behind the
surface trough. An initial surge of gusty north-northeast winds
(20-25 mph) is expected this afternoon and evening for areas near
and north of I-4.

As the boundary shifts slowly southward by Tuesday afternoon, all
except the southern Treasure Coast will experience frequent gusty
northeast breezes from 25 to 35 mph. These gusts look stronger
along the coast late on Tuesday into Wednesday, where there is a
40-70% chance of peak gusts exceeding 40 mph. Isolated (10%
chance) peak gusts to 50 mph are possible along the immediate
coast. Windy weather sticks around on Thursday, with gusts from 25
to 30 mph.

This duration of strong onshore winds may cause sporadic power
outages if limbs fall on power lines. Secure any lightweight items,
such as trash cans, that may be tossed about.

At our beaches, expect another round of dangerous surf that will
spread southward with the front. From Tuesday through Thursday,
breakers of 8 to 12 feet will increase run-up at high tides, which
may produce minor to moderate beach erosion. Without question,
numerous life-threatening rip currents are likely. Please stay out
of the ocean this week, and if you visit the beach, never turn your
back on the water.

Expect warm temperatures today (upper 70s to mid 80s), followed up
by cooler highs in the low/mid 70s through mid-week. A few spots
on Tuesday may struggle to reach 70 degrees, especially north of
Orlando.

Friday - Next Weekend...

We should gradually come out of this impactful stretch of weather as
we approach the weekend. Some lingering showers are still forecast
on Friday (40-50%) and perhaps even Saturday (20-30%) as fresh
onshore breezes continue. Rainfall amounts should be lighter,
however. Most locations should be dry by next Sunday. A warming
trend should get underway, with highs from the upper 70s to the
low 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A cold front reaches the local Atlantic today, north of Cape
Canaveral. It then slowly pushes southward through the waters
before exiting toward the Florida Straits by Thursday. Dangerous
boating conditions will follow this front through mid to late
this week. Northeasterly winds will increase behind the front,
with gale-force gusts expected at times from Tuesday through at
least Wednesday.

Initially, advisory-level winds only reach the Volusia waters
today. By Tuesday afternoon, NE 20-30 kt winds will encompass all
but the Treasure Coast waters. Gusts to gale force are expected to
begin from north to south on Tuesday afternoon, lasting off and on
through Wednesday night. Thus, a Gale Watch has been issued. Seas
will quickly build into Tuesday, 5-8 ft south to 8-12 ft north,
continuing upward to 10-16 ft on Wednesday. Seas remain hazardous
through the rest of the work week as wind only slowly decreases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Patchy IFR/MVFR CIGs and VSBYs at DAB/SFB and even MCO along and
ahead of a cool front approaching the area. Patchy ground fog at
VRB/FPR will lift quickly after sunrise. Shower and storm chances
increase today (60-70%) with a front that will progress slowly
southward through the area. Numerous showers and scattered storms
forecast into this afternoon and continuing into the nighttime.
Kept VCTS starting at 19Z across the interior, with an earlier
start around 17Z along the coast from TIX southward as sea breeze
begins to develop. Have inserted TEMPO TS with MVFR conditions at
MCO/TIX/MLB. Other TEMPOs will likely be needed as convective
evolutions becomes clearer. Prevailing MVFR conds developing
southward behind the front reaching as far south as MLB by
03Z-05Z.

Winds will be light and variable initially this morning, becoming
N/NE 8-12 knots as front crosses northern terminals and E/NE
along the coast south of the Cape as sea breeze forms into the
afternoon. Winds then increase further behind the front becoming
breezy to windy (14-19 knots, gusts to 25-27 knots) behind the
front from KMCO northward after 20-21Z. Highest gusts will be at
DAB aft 19Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  63  71  64 /  60  80  80  40
MCO  82  64  70  65 /  80  70  80  40
MLB  82  66  75  67 /  70  80  80  60
VRB  83  65  76  66 /  70  80  80  70
LEE  82  62  72  63 /  60  70  70  30
SFB  81  64  72  63 /  70  80  80  40
ORL  82  64  72  64 /  80  70  80  40
FPR  83  64  76  65 /  60  80  80  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ550-570.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night
     for AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555-
     575.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for
     AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly