Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

348
FXUS62 KJAX 041137
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
737 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION, UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Critically Low Humidity this Afternoon for Inland Southeast GA &
Suwannee Valley

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

- Elevated Fire Danger Possible Tuesday through Thursday

- Near Record High Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday

- Breezy with Scattered Thunderstorms on Thursday Afternoon &
Evening. Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Across Southeast
GA

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible Friday through the Upcoming
Weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Made a few changes to the temps and dewpoints this morning based on
the cool morning lows in the 40s to lower 50s (below guidance).
Otherwise, little change in the forecast for today, with sunny skies
except for a few cumulus around the coastal areas and inland
northeast FL, and high clouds mostly in southeast GA. High pressure
shifting further away from the area this afternoon and tonight will
bring more boundary layer flow from the southeast and a further
warming trend going into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Critically Low Relative Humidity Values Across Inland Southeast GA
and the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon

- Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Possible on Tuesday Afternoon at
Inland Locations

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches

Overnight surface analysis depicts high pressure (1021 millibars)
situated along the southeast U.S. coast. Meanwhile, a wavy frontal
boundary remains stalled across the FL Keys and northwestern
Bahamas. Aloft...a subtle shortwave trough was crossing our area,
with this feature embedded within a mostly zonal west-northwesterly
flow pattern that prevails across the eastern two-thirds of the
nation.  Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery
indicates that a dry air mass continues to advect into our region,
with PWAT values around one half inch or less across southeast GA
and northeast FL, while values of 0.5 - 0.75 inches were located
across north central FL. The aforementioned shortwave trough
crossing our area was creating isentropic lift / overrunning across
central and south FL to the north of stalled, wavy frontal boundary.
This lift was creating a deck of mostly mid level cloud cover for
locations along and south of Interstate 4 in central FL, with a few
stratocumulus clouds nosing into north central FL. Fair skies
otherwise prevail across our region, with decoupling winds at most
inland locations and a light onshore breeze prevailing along the
northeast FL coast. Temperatures at 07Z ranged from the mid 40s
across portions of inland southeast GA to the 50s for inland
locations elsewhere, except mid 60s for portions of north central
FL. 60s prevail at coastal locations, and dewpoints ranged from the
mid 40s across inland southeast GA to the mid and upper 50s for
coastal northeast FL as well as portions of north central FL.

Shortwave troughing crossing our area early this morning will
quickly shift offshore before noon, with zonal westerly flow in its
wake becoming northwesterly overnight as ridging over Mexico begins
to expand over the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf). Meanwhile,
high pressure situated along the southeastern seaboard will shift
eastward today, allowing low level flow to shift from east-
northeasterly this morning to east-southeasterly by this evening.
This veering flow will slowly erode the dry air mass that is in
place across our area by this evening, with PWATs climbing to near 1
inch this afternoon across north central FL.

Breezy onshore winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze
boundary will push marine cumulus and stratocumulus onshore this
afternoon from around St. Augustine southward, with increasing
clouds expected through around sunset across north central FL and
southern portions of the Suwannee Valley as the Atlantic sea breeze
boundary propels inland. A few showers or sprinkles may develop from
this cumulus and stratocumulus deck just south of our area this
morning through the afternoon, but dry conditions will otherwise
prevail for our region through tonight. Plenty of sunshine and the
initially very dry air mass in place at inland locations will allow
highs to rebound to the low and mid 80s for locations west of the I-
95 corridor this afternoon, while breezy onshore winds keep coastal
highs in the upper 70s. Southeasterly breezes will be slow to
subside tonight at coastal locations, keeping lows mostly in the low
to mid 60s, while decoupling winds at inland locations allow lows to
fall into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry Weather with Warming Temperatures

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

Predominantly dry weather conditions will persist through Tuesday
and Wednesday while high pressure over the region moves off towards
the east with the prevailing flow shifting to become more out of the
west by the end of the period as a cold front boundary presses in
towards the forecast area from out of the northwest. Temperatures
will warm through midweek with daily high temps rising from out of
the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday up into the lower to mid 90s by
Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures will similarly warm from out
of the lower 60s up into the mid to upper 60s by midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Hot & Breezy Wednesday and Thursday

- Shower & T`storm Chances Return Thursday, Especially for Southeast
GA

- Slightly Cooler Late Week with Scattered Shower Potential for
Northeast FL

High pressure will shift further south and east of the region on
Wednesday as the next front approaches from the north Wednesday
Night, likely moving across southeast GA Thursday and Thursday Night
before slowing progress near or south of northeast FL Counties on
Friday with weakening also likely. High pressure tries to build in
from the north behind the front, but as of now it looks fairly weak
and ridging doesn`t look to make it much further than southern GA,
and therefore at least slight chances for showers and t`storms are
likely to continue across northeast FL late week where the warmest
temps and best moisture remains in place closer to wherever the
frontal boundary ultimately sets up/lingers. Temperatures will be
above climo for Wednesday and Thursday area-wide, dropping overall
closer to normal for Friday and into the start of next week with
more of a north/south gradient likely.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
VFR will prevail through much of the period. Any mist around
VQQ around 12z this morning will dissipate quickly. Then, potential
for some mist at VQQ by about 07z Tuesday. Otherwise, anticipate
some cumulus development this afternoon around 4 kft and will
likely dissipate by 00z/01Z. For sfc winds, mainly northeast
about 5 kt by 14z, and then turning more easterly this afternoon
up to 10-15 kt coastal terminals and 6-10 kt inland.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure centered over the southeastern states will shift
offshore this afternoon as weak low pressure situated along a
stationary frontal boundary moves eastward and away from Bahamas.
Breezy east to southeasterly winds are expected during the afternoon
and evening hours today and again on Tuesday. Caution level speeds
will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening, well in advance
of a cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. Winds
will shift to southerly on Wednesday night and then southwesterly on
Thursday as the frontal boundary slowly approaches our local waters
from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany
this frontal passage on Thursday afternoon and evening, with strong
storms possible across the Georgia waters. Breezy northwesterly
winds are expected in the wake of this frontal passage on Thursday
night, followed by winds shifting to northerly on Friday morning and
then northeasterly by Friday afternoon as the frontal boundary
likely stalls over the Florida peninsula. Additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Friday through the
upcoming weekend as a wave of low pressure develops along the
stalled frontal boundary that should be positioned near the
northeast Florida waters.

Rip Currents:

Breezy onshore winds will combine with a lingering east-northeasterly
ocean swell to maintain a higher end moderate risk at area beaches
today. The ocean swell will gradually fade by midweek, but
persistently breezy southeasterly winds will keep a moderate
risk in place at area beaches through midweek. Gusty southwesterly
winds may reduce this risk on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Critically Low Relative Humidity Values Across Inland
  Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon


- Marginally High Daytime Dispersion Values this Afternoon
  Across North Central FL

- An Elevated Fire Danger and High Dispersions Inland Each
  Afternoon Tuesday Through Thursday

Dry weather is expected to prevail area-wide through Wednesday
as high pressure remains in control. With the drier airmass
behind the recent front, very good mixing inland each day
through Wednesday will result in minRH near critically low
values during the afternoon and evening, as well as an overall
increase in daytime dispersions each day. Flow will be generally
our of the north to northeast today to nearly variable but
still gusty over inland GA, becoming increasing more east to
southeasterly through Wednesday. The next frontal boundary to
affect the area will approach Wednesday Night, bring chances of
rain mainly for southeast GA on Thursday with lower chances
across northeast FL as the front weakens Thursday Night and into
Friday. Thunderstorms will also be possible with the front,
especially north of about the I-10 corridor.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog will be
possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning
hours on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for:

Wed, May 6:
JAX: 96/2012
CRG: 96/2012
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 95/2012

Thu, May 7:
JAX: 94/1977
CRG: 94/1977
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 93/1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  53  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  64  79  69 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  81  56  85  64 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  79  65  82  67 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  85  57  89  63 /   0  10  10   0
OCF  85  58  89  64 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$