Fort Lauderdale, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

541
FXUS62 KMFL 261731
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL
131 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

 - Heat indices will rise into the upper 90s and lower 100s across
   most areas each afternoon through Wednesday.

 - Hazardous marine and beach conditions will remain in place
   across the Atlantic waters as well as the Atlantic Coast
   beaches through Wednesday.

 - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
   across South Florida late week into the upcoming weekend,
   which will lead to heavy downpours and localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

A significant transition from the current weather pattern into a
more unsettled/wetter scenario is expected on Wednesday with the
onset of deeper moisture advection from the south.

Today high-res and global model solutions keep one more day of
ridging controlling our synoptic scenario with the mid/west
Atlantic sf ridge extending into the northern half of the
peninsula, while mid/upper lvl ridging lingers over the region.
These features will again keep limiting available instability for
deeper convection across much of SoFlo today. Latest NBM looks
very similar to the previous two days with the Atlantic metro
areas carrying single digit POPs through the early afternoon
hours, and about 20% on the late afternoon to early evening hours.
For the immediate west coast, the weaker Gulf breeze remains
pinned against the ESE flow with 20- 30% POPs, so in general,
expect mainly isolated showers with embedded thunderstorms.

On Wednesday, the advertised shift in the synoptic pattern will
begin to materialize as both ridges quickly erode and migrate
further into the Atlantic. In their place, deepening troughiness
will move into the SE CONUS, allowing for sfc flow across SoFlo to
begin veering to a more southerly flow. This will trigger an
extended moisture advection scenario with the southerly flow
tapping into the pool of deeper moisture over the Caribbean and
the SE Gulf waters. POPs/Wx coverage will begin ramping up late
Wed morning, but still showing a sharp gradient between the
eastern and western halves of SoFlo. The Atlantic metro areas will
still remain on the lower end of the precip forecast with 20-30%
chance of showers and thunderstorms, while the onset of the deeper
intrusion of moisture over the west coast will likely hit the
60-70% range in the afternoon. And with the erosion of the ridge
aloft, there might be enough support for a few strong cells to
develop.

Despite the initial increase in showers and cloud coverage, temperatures
should still remain hot with upper 80s to low 90s along the East
Coast, and up into the mid 90s over west coast areas. Heat indices
will again peak in the upper 90s to around 100 across the East
Coast, and up into the mid 100s over southwest FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Long term solutions are now in good agreement regarding the
unsettled weather pattern that will prevail through much of the
forecast period. With the ridging now displaced away from the
area, the S/SW flow will result in a large swath of above normal
PWATs streaming through the state from south-to-north on
Thursday. Latest GFS Total Precipitable Water Normalized Anomaly
shows a moisture content of around 3 standard deviations above
seasonal means. Other guidance parameters show similar results.

While the overall picture through the weekend remains the same,
latest NBM and ensembles are now extending the highest/widespread
coverage of showers and thunderstorms beyond Thursday, possibly
through Monday. This is the most significant departure from previous
forecasts. Current grid package keeps highest POPs in the 70-80%
range each day during the afternoon hours, with numerous showers and
storms expected.

Main hazards with any thunderstorm will be gusty winds (including
potential for downburst winds), lightning strikes and localized
flooding with the heaviest downpours. Guidance also suggest the
arrival of a strong shortwave feature sometime on Saturday, which
could provide extra support for strong to severe cells at times. WPC
Excessive Rainfall Outlook maps show a Marginal risk (at least 5%
chance) of experiencing Flash Flooding over portions of SoFlo by
Friday, and likely continuing through the weekend and into early
next week.

Temperatures remain hot through Friday with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s, then a modest relief is expected for the weekend as
persistent cloud cover and showers help in keeping highs down a
couple of degrees. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
VFR conditions are mostly expected to persist at all the South
Florida terminals through the TAF period. There may be occasional
passing showers as well some brief bouts of MVFR CIGs. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh east to southeasterlies will continue through
the period with frequent gusts to near 25 knots, especially during
the daylight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Moderate to breezy east-southeast winds will persist across most
of the local waters today. Some periods of afternoon gusty winds
are possible over the Atlantic waters during the next couple of
days. A Small craft Advisory remains in effect for all Atlantic
waters until late tonight. Across the Gulf waters, winds may
become west southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible through Wednesday, then numerous showers and storms
possible for the second half of the week as winds shift to a more
southerly flow over both the Atlantic and Gulf waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Strong onshore flow is keeping a high risk of rip currents across
the Atlantic coastline through Wednesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  88  78  88 /  30  20  40  70
West Kendall     77  90  76  90 /  20  30  40  80
Opa-Locka        78  90  77  90 /  30  20  40  70
Homestead        79  89  78  89 /  30  30  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  80  88  79  87 /  40  20  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  79  87  78  87 /  40  20  50  70
Pembroke Pines   80  91  79  91 /  30  20  40  70
West Palm Beach  79  88  78  88 /  30  20  40  80
Boca Raton       80  88  79  87 /  40  20  50  70
Naples           77  91  77  89 /  10  60  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Vuotto/KEY