Pike Creek Valley, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

329
FXUS61 KPHI 061728
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
128 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A cool air mass likely brings frost to parts of the region
tonight, particularly across the Poconos and northwestern New
Jersey.

2. Tranquil weather will prevail this week continuing into the
weekend with no significant weather hazards anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cool air mass likely brings frost to parts of
the region tonight, particularly across the Poconos and
northwestern New Jersey.

The cool air mass will peak today as high pressure builds more
firmly into the region. It will start to vacate the region
tonight as the high shifts eastward and winds start to turn more
southwesterly, but perhaps not quite quickly enough. While dew
points will start to rise, light winds and clear skies should
try to promote some radiational cooling. Undercut NBM temps most
areas given this and included patchy frost in the normally
cooler areas including interior southern NJ, but held the frost
advisory to the far north (Poconos and Sussex NJ) where air will
probably take longest to moisten back up, bringing the best
chance of radiating to near freezing there. That said, wouldn`t
be at all shocked if some colder locations further south,
particularly across the NJ Pine Barrens, made a run at 32
tonight. Also wouldn`t rule out some expansion of the frost
advisory, but confidence at this time is a bit too low for that.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Tranquil weather will prevail this week
continuing into the weekend with no significant weather hazards
anticipated.

High pressure will be in control through much of the week
resulting in mostly clear/sunny skies and seasonably cool to
mild temperatures.

As high pressure shifts offshore by Wednesday, airmass
modification will commence. Temperatures return to more
seasonable values on Wednesday, and likely go above normal on
Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures look
to return to near normal again for Friday and into the weekend.
It should be an extended stretch of pleasant weather days with
the next chance for rain not arriving until Sunday at the
earliest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR. Northwest winds around 5 to 10 kt with some
occasional gusts of 15-20 knots possible. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming light/variable. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. Winds light/variable becoming southwest 5-10
kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather
expected.

Sunday...VFR to start but restrictions possible by late day
depending on on when next system arrives with low stratus and
rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions have diminished below Small Craft Advisory levels for
all our waters and the last of the SCA was allowed to expire at
10 AM. For the remainder of the day, generally expect northwest
winds around 10-15 knots with these winds diminishing to around
5 knots tonight. Expect seas of 3 to 4 feet this morning
lowering to 2 to 3 feet later today.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...No marine hazards expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday
     for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday
     for NJZ001.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/RCM/Staarmann