Hartford, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

668
FXUS61 KBOX 061928
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
328 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Monitoring late tonight into early Tuesday for snow showers.
Otherwise, dry weather with increasing southerly winds Wednesday
and Thursday could lead to fire weather concerns.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak system moves through tonight into Tuesday bringing light
  rain/snow showers. No accumulation expected.

- Gradual warming trend starts Wed and Thurs, although it will
  be quite dry to go along with increasing south winds on Thurs.

- Mild and dry Friday heralds a cold frontal passage Sat but
  with limited rain chances. Onshore flow/possible backdoor
  frontal boundary then ushers in a cooldown for Sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak system moves through tonight into Tuesday
bringing light rain/snow showers. No accumulation expected.

A deeper upper-level trough shifts across the region tonight and
Tuesday. This trough brings along a cold pool aloft with 500mb
temperatures around -30C and 925mb temperatures -3C to 1C. A
shortwave trough moves through the flow aloft supporting some weak
lift and marginal moisture and even a little instability to support
scattered "popcorn" showers. Considering that we have such cool
temperatures aloft, this should support light snow showers for the
higher elevations and snow mixing in elsewhere. Given weak
convective element, can`t rule out even a little graupel in any
showers. High-resolution guidance is still lacking agreement on the
finer details of the timing and shower coverage. Overall there is a
signal for a few showers very early Tuesday AM.  Probabilities
increase (30-45%) for scattered showers closer to 7/8AM and after as
the main surface low tracks across the region. Any snow/frozen
precip accumulation would be very light and little impact. Worst
case 1". Temperatures will be below normal in the 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Gradual warming trend starts Wed and Thurs, although
it will be quite dry to go along with increasing south winds on
Thurs.

Rather strong 1038+ mb high pressure cell south of Nova Scotia early
Wed will extend a surface ridge southwestward through the Southern
New England coastline into the mid-Atlantic and central
Appalachians, remaining more or less in place into Thurs. Warming
925 to 850 mb temps and full sunshine should permit a general
warming trend thru Thurs with highs on Wed in the mid 40s to low 50s
(low 40s near the coast) and into the 50s in most areas by Thurs.
With a few days of generally dry weather early this week, fire
weather concerns are possible on both days, as dewpoints drop into
the teens to low 20s in the pre-greenup period allowing for minimum
RH`s in the 20 to 25 percent range from the coast. Although
southerly winds are on the light side Wed, they pick up a little
more on Thurs with gusts around 20-25 mph, so Thurs probably offers
the strongest chance for fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Mild and dry Friday heralds a cold frontal passage
Sat but with limited rain chances. Onshore flow/possible backdoor
frontal boundary then ushers in a cooldown for Sun.

Looks like one final day of full sun and even milder temps back into
the mid 60s Friday, so it looks like Fri ends up as the pick of the
workweek. Sat starts off mostly sunny, but will have increasing
cloud cover as a weakening frontal system moves through Southern New
England during the afternoon to first part of the evening. This
frontal boundary won`t have much moisture to work with, and it may
just result in some enhanced cloudiness with limited prospects for
rain showers. Looks like late Sat night or into Sunday, guidance
continues to show presence of a NE onshore flow/possible backdoor
front with cool 850 mb temps 0 to -2C. It`s still early but it
doesn`t look like there is a signficant amount of RH and pressure
gradient doesn`t look too strong, so this backdoor front doesn`t
look to be as pronounced in terms of strong onshore winds and as
overcast as e.g. this past Saturday`s backdoor front was.
Regardless, expect a cooldown as we move into the latter part of the
weekend, though temperatures start to modify once again as we move
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18 TAF Update...

Today: High confidence.

VFR. WNW winds 10-20 kts and gusts 20-30 kt. Highest gusts for
higher elevations and Cape/Island terminals.

Tonight: High confidence overall, moderate on possible precip
chances.

SCT-OVC cloud decks return overnight, VFR mostly. There is still
uncertainty on the timing and coverage/chances of showers
tonight. There is potential for brief -SHRASN after 06Z with
pockets of brief MVFR possible. Gusts diminish by 01Z with W
winds less than 10 kts. Winds become light and variable after
06Z.

Tuesday: Moderate confidence.

VFR with periods of MVFR ceilings improving to VFR mid
afternoon/early evening. Scattered, brief -RASN showers Tuesday
AM through early afternoon. Timing and coveraging lower
confidence. Winds will shift through the day as a surface low
passes through. Light SE flow to start, eventually shifting to
NW from west to east in the afternoon. NW winds will trend
stronger 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts.


Tuesday Night: High confidence.

VFR conditions. NW winds 8-12 kts, a few gusts up to 20 kts
possible.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF.

Few -RASN showers early after 09Z through 12Z, messaged as a
PROB30 due to uncertainty in model guidance and low coverage of
SH. Probabilities for scattered showers increase more toward
12Z, so included in TAF for -SHRASN through the afternoon.
Showers will likely be brief in nature with MVFR ceilings. SE
winds in the early AM shift to E/ENE by noon, shifting N late
in afternoon.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence.

Gusty winds diminish this evening with seas 2-4 ft. This will allow
the small craft advisories to be dropped this evening.


Low pressure moves across region Tuesday with winds shifting
through the day from SE,eventually around to the N/NW late
afternoon-early evening. Northwesterly wind gusts may approach
SCA levels Tuesday evening across the southern waters ahead of
an approaching high pressure system.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Loconto/Mensch
AVIATION...Loconto/Mensch
MARINE...Loconto/Mensch