Ansonia, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

536
FXUS61 KOKX 261944
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another warm day on tap Wednesday, with a late day shower or
thunderstorm possible.

2) Cooler for the end of the week with multiple disturbances
dropping south across the Northeast.

3) Moderate risk of rip currents Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An amplifying shortwave trough dropping south across eastern
Canada will carve out an upper trough across the Northeast for
the end of the week into the weekend. This will be preceded by
a cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
Before that happens through, another warm day will be on tap for
Wednesday with most locations away from the immediate shore
getting up into the 80s. Highs are forecast to top out about 3
to 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday. There is some uncertainty in
the temperature forecast due to a canopy of mid and high level
clouds expected across the area. The latter is associated with
moisture rounding the subtrop ridge over the western Atlantic.
At the same time, height falls from the aforementioned upper
trough will block much of the southern branch energy from
advancing north, but there could be a few showers near or just
southwest of NYC and LI toward daybreak Wednesday. Thus, the
extent of cloud cover limiting daytime heating is in question.
However, the spread in the NBM for highs on Wednesday has
decreased the last 24h.

Widely scattered convection is also a possibility Wednesday
afternoon and evening as the cold front moves through the area.
NBM still wants to keep it dry, but with marginal instability
and modest deep-layer shear, have kept thunderstorms in the
forecast. SPC has the area in a general thunderstorm outlook.
Dry air in the mixed layer and a mid level cap are limiting
factors. CAMs support limited coverage at this time.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Temperatures return closer to normal for the end of this week
into early next week. Upper trough will remain across eastern
Canada and the Northeast during this time. Multiple disturbances
in the NW flow aloft will drop south across the area with a
chance of showers and possibly a low- topped thunderstorm. The
best chance looks to be Friday night into Saturday. While there
are timing issues with these disturbances, widespread rain stays
mainly north and east of the area. Eastern portions of CT and
LI have chances of about 30 to 50 percent, but falling off to
the west. This by no means will be washout.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Moderate risk of rip currents likely on Wednesday with residual
2-ft SE swell, and 2-ft S wind waves.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will slide to the south and east through tonight.
A weak cold front will approach on Wed.

VFR with coastal sea breezes 10 kt or less. Winds diminish
tonight and become SW, then W at or just under 10 kt by late
morning or midday.

MVFR cond likely for the AM push for most terminals except
perhaps KSWF. While IFR cigs aren`t in the forecast they can`t
be ruled out.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MFR cond likely, tempo IFR possible for the AM push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday afternoon: Mainly VFR with W flow G15-20kt.
An isolated late day or early evening shower or tstm possible.

Thursday: Chance of an afternoon shower at KGON, otherwise VFR.

Friday: VFR. Chance of showers/MVFR after midnight mainly at
KGON/KISP/KBDR/KSWF.

Saturday: Chance of morning showers/MVFR mainly at
KGON/KISP/KBDR. NW winds G20-25kt in the afternoon and
early evening.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
There is a chance for marginal SCA conditions Saturday afternoon
and night in a northerly flow. Best chance looks to be east of
Moriches Inlet. Otherwise, expecting relatively
quiet conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DW