Castle Rock, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

634
FXUS65 KBOU 061841
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1241 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance of light showers over the mountains late Monday, then
  a chance over the mountains and adjacent plains Tuesday.

- A chance of light showers for much of the forecast area
  Wednesday and Thursday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions over the plains and
  foothills Wednesday afternoon.

- Unsettled weather pattern Friday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 1106 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Skies were mostly clear across the forecast area this evening.
Satellite pictures are showing a bit of high cloudiness moving
southeastward into the forecast at this time. Temperatures were
in the 40s across the plains, with 30s on the foothills at this
time. Drainage winds have developed in most areas.

Models show flat upper ridging on Monday with weak zonal flow aloft.
Only limited upper level moisture is expected on Monday, then a weak
upper trough will move across Monday night into Tuesday with
increasing mid and upper level moisture. There will be a cooler
airmass lurking over the northeast corner on Monday afternoon, which
is expected to push across most of the CWA Monday night with 10-20
percent chances of light showers over the high mountains and
northeast corner. On Tuesday, pops for light showers will range
from 40-60% over the high country and Palmer Ridge, with 20-50%s
over the urban corridor.

By Wednesday, strong northwesterly flow aloft behind the exiting
trough will bring a brief shot of fairly strong low level winds to
mountains, foothills and adjacent plains.  There is not much of a
mountain wave set-up noted on the cross sections, however.  There is
enough moisture progged for limited late day showers for most
areas on Wednesday.

There will be elevated to critical fire weather conditions due to
low afternoon humidly levels Wednesday afternoon.  However, wind
speeds do not look strong enough at this time for any highlights.

On Thursday, weaker zonal flow aloft will be in place.  There looks
to be enough moisture for light showers again, especially over the
high county, with a chance out on the plains.

Monday`s high temperatures will be in the upper 60s over the
western plains, but upper 50s to lower 60s over the east. Forecast
temperatures continue to look above seasonal normals over the
plains Tuesday through Thursday, with mid to upper 60s Tuesday and
Thursday and lower 70s on Wednesday.

For the later days, Friday through Monday, southwesterly flow aloft
is progged on Friday through Sunday with an upper trough moving
eastward across the southwestern United States.  By Monday, upper
troughing is over the western third of the U.S.  Overall, models
continue to show a wetter period with temperatures remaining above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Winds for the rest of today will transition to more of an easterly
direction and remain light until a secondary surge of a cool
airmass pushes through from the northeast bringing a period of
breeziness to the region around 00Z-04Z. We have introduced a
TEMPO to account for the possibility of 25-30KT wind gusts at
KDEN. Confidence in gusts greater than 20KT reaching KAPA and KBJC
is low (20% chance) at this time. We expect ceilings to begin
lowering to about 6000ft by midnight, with the possibility of BKN
1000ft stratus at KDEN and KAPA between 10Z and 14Z.

Ceilings should lift by 17Z Tuesday and winds will become light
SE across all airports through the afternoon. However, high- res
model guidance suggests isolated high-based showers developing
over the Denver metro area at 21-23Z. Any showers or virga that
develops will have the potential for outflows and microbursts
with 25-30KT gusts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...AA