Tuolumne Meadows, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

966
FXUS66 KHNX 191812
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1112 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cooler temperatures this weekend before a warmup to begin
next week.

2. Hot and dry conditions next week will create increased fire
risk across the region.

3. 15-25% probability for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada,
including isolated risk for dry lightning.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water
is still running cold.

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.DISCUSSION...
A trough is sliding through California this weekend bringing
slightly cooler temperatures and improvement in minimum RH
values. However, the trough also brings some instability as
there is a 15-25% probability for thunderstorms in the Sierra
Nevada, including isolated risk for dry lightning especially
around Yosemite.

After the trough slides out on Sunday, a ridge develops and will
strengthen over the Desert Southwest bringing temperatures back
up with a return of triple digits. However, the setup of this
ridge could lead to the first monsoon surge of moisture. Latest
NBM 12 hour thunderstorm probabilities highlight a 15 to 25
percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the long term, the CPC
continues to highlight above average temperatures in both the
6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.


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.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.
15-25% probability for thunderstorms across the Sierra Crest
this afternoon, particularly for the central Sierra and around
Yosemite National Park.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated Fire risk today along the edge of the Sierra Crest and
the Mojave Desert. RHs will improve through the weekend before
decreasing to begin next week.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JPK

weather.gov/hanford