Tehachapi, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

630
FXUS66 KHNX 130608
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1108 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026


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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Moderate to Major Heat Risk on Tuesday and Wednesday.

2. 30% probability of thunderstorms along the high Sierra and
eastern Kern deserts through the week.

3. Slow moving mountain thunderstorms can produce excessive
rainfall.

4. Dry lightning strikes in the high Sierra this week, 10%
probability of occurrence, away from the excessive rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture continues to be pulled up from the south, as indicated
by the cloud cover over much of the Valley along with the light
rain and virga that is moving through the region at this time.
By tomorrow, enough moisture will be in the area along with
additional heating that thunderstorms may develop along the
Sierra Nevada crest. The strongest chances will be tomorrow and
Tuesday, with Monday`s chances at 25-45% along the crest and
15-25% into the foothills, and Tuesday`s chances at 25-35% along
the crest. And while these thunderstorms may produce localized
heavy rainfall, some stray lightning strikes may occur outside
the rain column.

Along with this moisture, the ridge pulling it in will also
cause temperatures to rise into the mid 100`s during the day and
keep temperatures from cooling down as much with lows in much of
the Valley in the low 70`s and the urban areas in the mid 70`s.
The warmest temperatures are expected to be on Tuesday and
Wednesday where widespread Moderate Heat Risk is expected with
some areas of Major Heat Risk. The latter type of heat risk
effected the majority of the population, especially those
without adequate cooling at night.

Looking to the long term, these above normal temperatures seem
likely to continue into next week, as ridging remains prominent
over the southwest and California. The Climate Prediction Center
is highlighting the 20th through the 26th with a slight risk
(20-40%) for hazardous temperatures, as well as both the 6 to 10
and 8 to 14 day outlooks seeing both leaning and likely above
normal temperatures. The Center also notes the majority of the
west may also see above normal precipitation during those time
periods, with likely above normal in the former and leaning
above normal in the latter, possibly indicating further monsoon
moisture influxes during those time periods.

&&


.AVIATION...
High Sierra thunderstorms could lead to mountain obscuration,
although VFR is expected through the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.


&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

EW

weather.gov/hanford