Sierraville, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

583
FXUS65 KREV 191924
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1224 PM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread minor HeatRisk with areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the
  Nevada Basin and Range is expected today as temperatures become
  milder going into the weekend.

* Thunderstorm activity continues today, bringing impacts to fire,
  recreation, travel and aviation.

* A warming trend resumes for next week, with a return of typical
  afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Ongoing showers and storms this morning across northeastern
California and northwestern Nevada are ahead of an incoming trough
that will move onshore to the Pacific Coast into this afternoon and
evening. As the heating of the day works to increase instability, we
anticipate more storm activity through the day. Main storm threats
today are to include potential for 60+ mph gusty outflows, frequent
lightning and the possibility for up to 1" hail in any storm. For
areas to the north of I-80, there is also another potential hazard,
since the available atmospheric moisture is higher, there could be
isolated flooding under wet storm cores. This could be mitigated by
faster moving storm motions, but if many heavier showers encounter
the same areas, we could see some isolated cases of flooding, such
as streets or poor drainage areas. Chances for wetting rains will
range 20-40%, this afternoon the focus will be for the area from
Pyramid Lake, south to the Pine Nut Mountains, and from US-95 to the
east to the Carson Range to the west. For this evening the focus
shifts to the eastern Lassen County and northern Washoe County
areas, with a chance ranging 20-50%. As of this writing, there are
some clouds developing along the Sierra Crest, hinting at the active
day ahead as we anticipate this activity to increase and storms to
develop over terrain before moving due north. Several CAM guidance
solutions show a late day storm complex developing over the Pine Nut
mountains, then moving north into the Reno-Carson City-Minden area,
before outflows from the complex start to move out toward the Carson
Sink, where blowing dust may be lofted. As the outflows start to
progress, we also anticipate there will be further storm development
where outflow collisions occur. These secondary storm features can
be difficult to model, but with DCAPE values ranging 1500-2000 J/kg,
we expect strong gusty outflows to develop, especially over the
Pershing and Churchill County area. The SPC has put us under a
marginal risk for severe weather today, as well as a scattered dry
thunderstorm fire weather outlook, which is owing to the faster
storm motions producing potential bolts outside of storm cores. See
the Fire Weather Discussion and Red Flag Warning for details of the
fire weather risks for today.

Saturday we will see lingering showers along the Oregon border, with
chances for showers around 15-20%, then decreasing through the day
as the trough heads east. The region will also experience lower
daytime highs, with temperatures in western Nevada hitting upper 80s
to near 90 and the Sierra valleys in the upper 70s to low 80s. We
will also see a return to typical afternoon summertime breezes. Then
for Sunday, we rid ourselves of the showers, and the temperatures
nudge up a couple degrees. A nice end to the weekend is in store!

For next week, summer heat returns, with highs climbing back to the
upper 90s for western Nevada and upper 80s for Sierra valleys.
Around midweek, shower chances look to return to the southern
Sierra, but as of now chances remain low, around 15-20%. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* Ongoing showers this morning near KSVE and KLOL have cleared out
  this afternoon, with developing storms later for all western
  Nevada and Sierra terminals. Convective showers will develop
  around 19-21z, with a 30-70% chance for showers, and a 20-40%
  chance any given shower will become a strong to severe storm.
  Gusty outflows up to 60 kts are possible, along with potential
  for lightning and hail up to 1" as well as isolated heavy
  rainfall. Fast storm motions will limit flood potential, but
  storms may continue to develop over the same areas. Terrain
  obscuration, LLWS and turbulence may be present near storm
  cores. Sustained surface winds of 20-30 kts will also be present
  today through tonight.

* Lingering showers for Saturday will be likely along the northern
  borders of California and Nevada, with a 15-20% chance.
  Elsewhere, most terminals will return to VFR conditions for
  Saturday, with typical afternoon breezes of 15-20 kts. HRICH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather concerns continue today with thunderstorm
chances and coverage increasing across the region. Antecedent hot
and dry conditions with poor overnight recoveries have helped in
drying fuels further which also increases fire danger.

Storms will again move quickly today toward the north-northeast once
developed, with a mix of wet and dry storm modes. This increases
potential for dry lightning strikes outside of wet storm cores as
well as dry storms that produce more lightning than moisture. Gusty,
erratic outflows of 60+ mph are possible, increasing the threat of
rapid wind direction shifts. NE CA and portions of adjacent NV sees
the thunderstorm potential begin in the morning before coverage
spreads into W NV during the late morning/afternoon. Outside of
storms, afternoon winds gusting up to around 25-35 mph are forecast
within the region.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect today for W NV and portions of NE
CA. See details in the Red Flag Warning product. HRICH/078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ458.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-421.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ423-429.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278.

&&

$$